287
FXUS61 KOKX 050610
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
210 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control through early in the week. A
cold front will then approach Tuesday night and pass through during
Wednesday. This will be followed by high pressure through late
this week. Low pressure may pass south and east of Long Island
sometime this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure brings us another sunny day with high temperatures
above normal. Temps aloft similar to yesterday, so looking at highs
for today fairly similar as well. Sea breezes should prevent some
coastal areas from reaching yesterday`s highs. Tonight starts out
mostly clear, but some models show shallow moisture pushing in from
the south and most likely impacting SE CT and possibly eastern LI as
well. For these two areas, it would more likely result in low cloud
cover with maybe some fog, but thinking is that turbulent mixing
near the bottom of the elevated inversion prevents widespread fog.
Otherwise, patchy fog inland, mainly in the river valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday should be similar to today as high pressure remains in
control and doesn`t shift all the much from Sunday`s positioning.
Another mainly sunny day with high temperatures a little cooler than
today, especially across coastal areas as the sea breeze probably
occurs earlier in the day and travels farther inland as well.

Heights fall on Tuesday with surface high pressure weakening.
Showers will be possible late in the day well NW of the city ahead
of an approaching cold front. The front enters the forecast area
late at night. Showers become likely west to east as the night
progresses. Left out the mention of thunder as instability will be
very limited at this time, especially late at night when lift with
the front arrives. NBM looked good for temperatures in the short
term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NBM was followed no changes.

Key Points:

* A cold front moves across the area Wednesday. Rain showers will be
  likely with the passage of the cold front. There will also be a
  chance of a thunderstorm with the passage of the front as well.

* High pressure returns Thursday and remains over the area into next
  weekend. Low pressure may pass south and east of Long Island this
  weekend. NBM has some slight chance POPs this weekend for parts of
  the area. Based on latest 00z forecast guidance, it seems
  conditions will be more dry than wet.

* Temperatures through the long term will be near or below
  normal with highs in the 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains over the area.

Light and variable overnight. SSW-S winds increase Sunday morning
with sea breezes in the afternoon. Wind speeds should be 10 kt or
less Sunday afternoon. Winds Sunday night become light and variable
once again.

TEMPO MVFR visibilities possible at KISP, KGON, and KSWF early
Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night-Monday: VFR. MVFR fog possible early Monday morning for
outlying terminals.

Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: MVFR with showers likely, ending Wednesday
afternoon. Low chance of IFR along the coast during Wednesday. NW
winds G15-20kt on Wed, becoming N late in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds with high pressure
in control through Monday night. Winds then pick up on Tuesday with
gusts possibly around 25 kt by late in the day into the evening and
waves on ocean waters nearing 5 feet Tues night. Additional
chance of advisory conditions for Wednesday and/or Thursday
with the passage of a cold front. Sub-SCA conditions are then
expected Thu night into Fri night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC