195
FXUS61 KOKX 222347
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
647 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds into area tonight, followed by a weak
front later Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday night into
Monday. High pressure then moves well out into the Atlantic as a
frontal system then approaches from the west. The associated
warm front moves across Tuesday night. The associated cold front
moves across Wednesday night. Then the low with this system
strengthens and slows down as it goes to Southeast Canada with
high pressure staying to the south and west of the area towards
late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Skies begins to clear this afternoon, with partly to mostly clear
skies expected tonight as a surface high builds over the region.
Lows tonight will mostly be in the low to mid 30s with low to mid
20s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, high pressure moves offshore, with a weak clipper system
tracking to the north late Sunday into Sunday night. Moisture and
forcing will be mainly to the west and north, however, there is a
chance of a few light showers/sprinkles across the higher elevations
to the northwest into the evening. Probabilities are low and will
leave the forecast dry for now. Another high pressure system moves
in behind the clipper system, resulting in quiet weather for Monday
and into Monday night. Highs on Sunday and Monday will be in the mid
40s to low 50s, with overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night
in the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Points:

* Rain event with frontal system Tuesday through midweek.

* Very breezy and cold Thanksgiving through Friday night.

Mid level quasi-zonal flow Tuesday through Tuesday night. Then a
longer wavelength trough sets up west of the area that will approach
for midweek. Trough with its axis moves in Thursday into Friday. A
quasi-zonal flow resumes thereafter.

At the surface, a warm front approaches Tuesday and moves across
Tuesday night. Then, region is in the warm sector Wednesday. A cold
front moves across Wednesday night. Thanksgiving Day Thursday will
be when a much colder airmass moves into the region. Parent low
pressure deepens in Southeast Canada. High pressure remains well
south and west of the region. The same positional setup remains
heading into late week with low pressure northeast of the region and
high pressure southwest of the region. This high pressure area
starts to build in for the start of next weekend.

Main rain event, Tuesday into Wednesday night with that frontal
system traversing the local area. Mainly dry thereafter.

For the model data, used the national blend of models but
incorporated the NBM 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles. Went with a
colder temperature solution Thursday through Friday and higher winds
especially over the land Thursday through Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in through Sunday morning. A weak cold front
moves through Sunday afternoon/evening.

VFR. There is a low potential for light showers to be around the
area with a weak cold frontal passage tomorrow, but confidence is
too low to include in the TAF. Should showers occur, brief MVFR
conditions are possible with ceilings as low as 025-030 ft.

Winds diminish tonight and likely become variable in direction for
most terminals overnight. Winds then pick back up to around 10kt
late Sunday morning. Gusts up to around 20 kt expected Sunday
afternoon mainly for city and most coastal terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Start time of gusts Sunday may be off an hour or two, and gusts may
be more occasional than frequent.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday evening through Monday: Mainly VFR, potential for brief MVFR
in light showers early Sunday evening. W-NW gusts 20-25kt late
Sunday night through Monday morning.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR in the afternoon with a chance of rain.
Rain likely at night with MVFR/IFR. Chc S-SW gusts 20-25 kt in the
afternoon and evening.

Wednesday: Chance of MVFR in rain (around 40 percent).

Thursday: VFR. W flow with gusts up to 30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions prevail through Sunday. SCA conditions
possible on the ocean waters Sunday night into Monday, with marginal
gusts possible on the eastern Sound. With high pressure building
back into the area conditions will be sub advisory Monday night.

Tuesday a brief sub-SCA condition forecast for the forecast waters.
Then, ocean starts to trend higher for forecast seas Tuesday night,
getting to SCA levels that continue into midweek. By late Wednesday
night through Thursday night, widespread SCA level seas are forecast
for all ocean zones. Even the Long Island Sound has portions of
their seas getting to SCA levels Thursday into Thursday night with
the forecast. Forecast wind gusts become increasingly widespread at
SCA levels Wednesday night through Thursday night eventually for
all waters. Potential for gales on the ocean Thursday through
Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 1 PM EST
     Monday for ANZ332-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...20/JM
HYDROLOGY...20/JM