989
FXUS61 KOKX 020841
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
441 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure building in from the north will
remain across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic through the weekend.
The high then moves slowly offshore the beginning of next week
with a cold front approaching mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A broad upper level ridge from the Central and Southern Plains
east into the Mid Atlantic along with surface high pressure
building in from the north, will maintain what has been a mainly
dry pattern. Highs today will be a few degrees below normal in
the mid to upper 60s. For tonight, lows will range from the
lower 40s in normally colder outlying areas, to 50 to 55 across
the NYC metro. This is close to normal around the metro and
about 3 to 5 degrees below normal elsewhere. For nighttime
lows, blended NBM deterministic with the NBM 50th percentile
(closer to MOS) to favorable radiation cooling.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging encompassing much of the country east of
the intermountain west will slowly work east through the period
in response to Pac Jet energy digging across the western states.
This will also allow the upper ridge to build across the east
heading into the weekend, thus strengthening surface high pressure
across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states. Expect dry conditions
and plenty of sun during the period minus some passing high
clouds on Friday.

Temperatures will warm with highs on Saturday about 7 to 10
degrees above normal. Most locations will get into the upper
70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NBM was followed with minimal cosmetic changes.

Key Points:

* High pressure remains in place through early next week with dry
  conditions.

* The high slides east Monday night as a cold front approaches for
  mid week. Expect a chance of showers late Tuesday into
  Wednesday.

* Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the middle and
  upper 70s to lower 80s, with highs on Wednesday slightly cooler,
  with highs only in the 70s. This will be 5-10 degrees above
  normal. At this time no record highs are expected to be set.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds southward into the region through the TAF
period.

VFR conditions.

N to NE winds this morning become more easterly late this
morning and early this afternoon. Possible sea breezes develop
late Thursday afternoon at 5 to 10 kt. The winds will be light
and mainly variable in direction later this evening and
overnight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There remains some uncertainty around sea breeze development
late Thursday afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night-Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas on the ocean waters of 6 to 9 ft to start the day will
gradually subside as multiple swell components (E and S)
generated from tropical systems diminish. SCA conditions are
expected to end shortly across LI Sound east of the CT River,
and the ocean waters during the early morning hours Friday. NE
winds this morning could gust up to 20 kt before diminishing.

Winds and seas will then remain below SCA levels through Mon
night as high pressure remains over the waters. The next chance
of SCA conditions return mid-week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Swell, surf, and total water levels will lower into Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...