244
FXUS61 KOKX 181209
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
709 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region today. A quick-moving low
passes to the south and off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight into
Wednesday. High pressure returns to the region Thursday, before
exiting offshore ahead of a frontal system that impacts the area
Friday into Saturday. High pressure then briefly returns the
second half of the weekend and remain into the first part of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure builds over the region today before a fast
moving low passes south of the area late tonight. Lighter flow
than recent days with a more relaxed pressure field as the high
builds overhead and deep low pressure over Atlantic Canada
continues to exit.

Air mass remains a bit cool for the time of year, with H850
progged near -5C into this afternoon. This should translate to
afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 40s. More in the
way of sun expected today, especially early, with the nearby
high. Sunshine becomes more filtered through the afternoon as
moisture works into the upper levels ahead of the fast moving
shortwave ejecting east. The weak surface low passes south of
the area overnight, sliding off the Delmarva Wed AM.

As it does so, guidance continues to keep the local area on the
northern fringes of the associated precip shield. The system
remains weak and transient though and QPF is projected to be
light where it does precipitate, generally under a tenth of an
inch for areas along the coast, and less going north. Much of S
CT and the LoHud Valley could remain entirely dry fighting
limited moisture and forcing. If enough works north however,
marginal temperature profiles could support wet snow, or a rain
and snow mix, in these areas. Given such light QPF though,
unsaturated DMZ, and marginal BL temps, any accumulation
shouldn`t be more than a dusting or light coating on the coldest
surfaces, and that may be generous. Best chances for seeing this
will be in elevated locales north and west of NYC, such as the
Hudson, Ramapo, and perhaps Western Highlands should precip make
it this far north. Closer to the coast, temperatures appear not
to support any frozen precip, even with initial evaporative
cooling in the dry low levels, and a chilly light rain is
expected here.

The system quickly pulls offshore toward daybreak, and any
precipitation comes to an end. Temperatures overnight range
from the upper 30s and lower 40s along the coast, to upper 20s
well inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure exits offshore as high pressure reasserts from the
northwest.

Any lingering precip tapers by mid Wednesday morning as the
passing low scoots out to sea. Conditions dry out and abundant
sunshine returns by the afternoon with a light N/NE surface
flow becoming established.

Dry conditions prevail through the period, and temperatures sit
in the upper 40s for most both afternoons, falling back into the
20s and 30s overnight. The light winds and lingering moisture in
the low levels should allow for widespread areas of frost to
develop overnight into Thu AM, but mainly for colder inland
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* A frontal system will impact the region Friday into Saturday as
  low pressure passes north of the region. A warm front remains near
  the region on Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.

* High pressure returns for the second half of the weekend and first
  part of next week with dry conditions.

* High temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal for
  this time of year. Generally in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region today. A weak low pressure
system passes to the south late tonight into Wednesday.

VFR for much of the TAF period with MVFR cigs moving into region
after midnight continuing into Wednesday morning. Light rain is
also expected late in the period. There is some uncertainty to
how far north the precipitation reaches. Anything north of NYC
could fall as a rain/snow mix or just some light snow. No
impacts expected. Will cover using a PROB30.

Winds today will generally be around 10 or 12kt from the WNW.
Forecast guidance showing a slightly higher potential for gusts
in and around the NYC terminals, so will go ahead and add gusts
through mid afternoon. Winds then fall below 10 kt late this
afternoon/early evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be occasional today.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday morning: MVFR or lower in light rain, mainly for NYC
terminals and KISP. Other terminals have a better chance at
staying VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain. S
winds G15-20kt Friday and Saturday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect on the ocean until
19Z this afternoon.

The frequent WNW wind gusts around 25 kt largely subside across
the coastal waters this morning, with elevated seas near or
above 5 ft lowering on the ocean by mid afternoon.

Conditions are generally then expected to remain below SCA
levels through Friday and much of the weekend. SCA conditions
look to return on the ocean Sunday night into the first part of
next week as the gradient tightens and seas build to 5 ft or
greater.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrological concerns through early
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DR
HYDROLOGY...DR/MW