746
FXUS61 KOKX 070640
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
140 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in today. A strong cold front moves
through tonight, ushering in a high pressure system for Monday into
Tuesday. A couple of low pressure systems may impact the area mid to
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Weak high pressure remains over the area through the first half
of the day. A shortwave and surface low gradually approach from
the north and will result in some increasing cloud cover during
the afternoon.

Colder than normal conditions continue with highs in the upper
30s and lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Aforementioned low pressure deepens as it passes to the north
and will help drag a cold front through our area. A cold airmass
builds in behind the front. There looks to be at least a 12 to
18 hour period late tonight into Monday where the pressure
gradient is relatively tight and we see a nice shot of cold
advection. Due to NBM low bias with wind/wind gusts in these
regimes, have blended in the NBM90th. Peak gusts look like they
will occur Monday morning, up to around 30 mph. Some isolated 35
to 40 mph gusts can`t be completely ruled out. Given the cold
airmass, highs on Monday are expected to top out in the mid 20s
to lower 30s. Wind chill values through much of Monday will be
in the teens.

Still some uncertainty with how low the temperatures can get
Monday night. Winds lighten as the center of the high sets up
just to our northwest. The question is how much, if any, cloud
cover will be around. Blended in some CONSMOS with the NBM to
get temperatures a bit lower in the outlying areas, but more
cloud cover would result in warmer temperatures than currently
forecast.

High pressure shifts east Tuesday and a return flow sets up.
Broad low pressure approaches from the west and could bring some
precip to the area by the end of the Short Term period. As of
right now, this would likely fall as snow for the interior and
rain closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NBM was followed with only minor changes made to winds.

Key Points:

* A series of quick-moving systems brings chances of
  precipitation, to the area through Saturday. Precipitation
  types of mainly rain for the coast and a wintry mix inland.

* Temperatures below normal through the period except on Wednesday,
  when they`ll be near normal.

* Conditions likely remain below warning and advisory thresholds.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases during the Thursday night-
Saturday period. This is when model spread increases regarding the
position and timing of low pressure centers/frontal boundaries that
may impact the area. Chances of precipitation are at 50% or lower
through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds to the southwest through the overnight,
before sliding offshore on Sunday. A strong cold front passes
through the region Sunday night, followed by high pressure
building in from the west Monday.

VFR.

A light WNW/NW flow to light and variable continues overnight with
winds likely becoming light and variable for a period late Sunday
morning, before a general SW flow becomes established early to mid
afternoon at around 10 kt. With the passage of a cold front winds
become W 10 to 15 kt. Gusts 20 to 25 kt develop late Sunday night.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt.

Monday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across
interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the
afternoon and into the evening. S-SW gusts 20-25kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds increase behind a cold frontal passage tonight. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters starting 1 AM Monday
for 30 kt wind gusts. Seas on the ocean are also expected to
briefly reach 5-6 feet.

Conditions lower below SCA levels Monday night, but likely
return again Tuesday night. SCAs may be needed through much of
the week after that as a couple of low pressure systems look to
impact the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET/DW
MARINE...JC/JT
HYDROLOGY...JC/JT