293
FXUS66 KOTX 031153
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
353 AM PST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry mix Thursday evening into Friday may result in a slick
  commutes.

- Warming temperatures and a transition of snow to rain late
  this week with breezy winds.

- Moderate impacts from snow expected on the mountain passes
  late week into the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather with low clouds and fog through Wednesday.
Weather trends unsettled beginning Thursday. Temperatures may be
cold enough Thursday night into Friday to support a lowland
wintry mix. By Friday, temperatures will modify and warm above
normal with unsettled weather continuing through the weekend and
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through tomorrow: The next couple days will have the forecast
area see a break from precipitation. PWATs currently sit at 0.3-
0.5in, which is slightly lower (80-90%) of normal. The one exception
will be in the mountains, where orographic lift could result in very
light snow with no additional accumulations. The reason for this
break is a strengthening ridge just off the PNW coast moving in
bringing higher heights to the area. With stratus currently covering
much of eastern Washington, fog formation will be difficult and
patchy in nature. Western Okanogan County and Chelan County do not
have stratus over them and currently have low visibilities, which
are anticipated to continue through the morning.

Tomorrow afternoon through Saturday: Tomorrow night through the
weekend, an active weather pattern moves into the area off the
coast. The aforementioned ridge will flatten, bringing a series of
shortwaves across the area over the weekend. The air mass it will
usher in will be warm and moist, with PWATs rising to 150-200% of
normal (0.5-0.6in). The first wave of rain and snow will come
through on Thursday night, but the bulk of precipitation associated
with the event will fall Thursday into Friday afternoon. Mountain
passes will see the heaviest snow. Probabilities of 6 inches of snow
or more Friday through Saturday for mountain passes are: 25% for
Stevens Pass, 45% for Lookout Pass, and 85% for Washington Pass.
There is a chance for some lowland snow, but totals right now are
hovering around an inch. Friday night, as anomalously warm
temperatures are advected into the area, snow levels rise to 4000
feet through the weekend, leading to a transition from snow to
rain for the lowlands. Main impacts from this series of weekend
waves will be wintry conditions along mountain passes alongside
lowland highway impacts during the snow to rain transition.
With deterministic snow totals in the Cascades and Central
Panhandle Mountains reaching 12 inches in the highest
elevations, winter weather headlines will likely be needed for
the weekend.

This series of waves will, alongside the rain and snow, bring mild
temperatures and gusty winds to the area as well. A surface low
dropping into Montana will tighten the pressure gradient across
Washington and Idaho, resulting in elevated wind gusts across the
area. In particular, Wenatchee, Pullman, and Lewiston have a 25-35%
chance of seeing wind gusts higher than 30 mph Friday night through
Saturday morning. Winds will be elevated Thursday and Saturday night
as well, but not as strong. Surface temperatures in the basin will
rise to the mid-40s by Saturday, which is 6-8 degrees warmer than
normal for this time of year.

Sunday through Wednesday: The active weather pattern continues
through the end of the weekend and into next week. Another series of
shortwaves move through, with early signals showing even warmer
temperatures and higher PWATs than this weekend. The Extreme
Forecast Index in particular highlights much warmer temperatures
than normal next Tuesday alongside stronger gusts throughout the
area. PWATs in long range ensembles rise to nearly 200-250% of
normal (0.7-0.8in). Early precipitation estimates show higher snow
totals. Current cluster analysis shows 80% agreement on higher than
normal heights early next week. The Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10
day outlooks show a 70-90% chance of above average temperatures and
a 50-70% chance for above normal precipitation. Should models
continue showing such trends over the next few days, this will be a
system to monitor very closely. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: Low stratus has become established across most
lowlands of the Inland NW this morning. CAMS indicate patchy
dense fog in the vcnty of KGEG but confidence is low this will
drift into the airport. HREF has increased probabilities (> 60%)
for stratus to break up starting KPUW/KLWS 18-20z and working
northward toward KGEG/KSFF though probabilities only reach
40-50% at KGEG. This leads to low confidence in the forecast
today. Additionally, a weak wave passing through aloft will
bring a slight increase in south/southwest winds in the boundary
layer which is favorable for stratus development into the rising
terrain of the West Plains and into the KCOE area. Very weak
ascent within the lower clouds in N Idaho could lead to drizzle
or flurries at times with temperatures hovering between 32-34F.
There is very low confidence for the stratus to break around
KEAT/KMWH with light and variable boundary layer winds.
Expectation is for any breaks to be short-lived away from
KPUW/KLWS with low stratus this evening into tonight and subtle
lowering of ceilings. Given higher probabilities for stratus
breakup to the south, introduced low confidence patchy fog for
KPUW/KLWS. A persistent light SE wind leads to the low
confidence for this socking in the terminals. /sb



.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Moderate to high confidence for low stratus to impact most
terminals through 18z. After 18z, moderate confidence for some
improvement working its way northward from KLWS/KPUW. Moderate
confidence for KEAT/KMWH to remain under stratus through the taf
period. /sb

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        36  29  34  30  39  34 /  10  10  60  50  90  40
Coeur d`Alene  38  30  35  31  39  35 /  20  30  70  50  90  70
Pullman        38  27  35  32  43  36 /  10  10  80  70 100  80
Lewiston       42  31  40  36  47  41 /   0  10  70  70  90  80
Colville       37  24  36  24  37  25 /  10  20  50  40  90  40
Sandpoint      35  28  35  29  36  33 /  30  40  80  60 100  80
Kellogg        38  32  35  33  41  37 /  30  40  90  70 100  90
Moses Lake     38  29  36  29  44  32 /  10  10  40  30  60  20
Wenatchee      41  30  39  33  47  38 /  10  10  30  40  80  50
Omak           39  28  37  29  38  30 /   0  10  30  30  70  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$