307
FXUS66 KOTX 112354
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
Issued by National Weather Service Seattle WA
354 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and wet Thursday into Friday.

- Mountain snow late Thursday into Friday night. Additional snow in
the mountains Sunday into Monday. Minor travel impacts expected.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds with light rain tonight into early Wednesday.
Wetter and windy weather returns Thursday and Friday. Light snow is
expected over mountain passes. A brief break between weather systems
on Saturday. Then another weather system Saturday night into early
Monday will bring additional light precipitation including more
light snow to mountain passes, especially Sunday night into Monday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday: A warm front will push in
tonight. Dynamics with the front will be rather weak although bring
a healthy amount of moisture with it as Pwats increase to around 180-
200% of normal. Weak southerly to southeasterly flow at mid levels
will result in some weak orographic enhancement across the northern
mountains along with moist isentropic ascent where light
precipitation is expected to be focused. Ensembles indicate up to a
few hundredths to potentially a tenth or two over the mountains with
the warm front through early Wednesday. Only snow expected will be
at the highest elevations with snow levels starting out around 5,000
feet and increasing to around 6,000 feet through the morning
Wednesday. The warm air advection and relatively mild temperatures
will make it difficult for snow to accumulate even at our highest
mountain passes, i.e. Washington Pass and Sherman Pass. The incoming
warm front will tighten the north to northeasterly pressure
gradient. That will result in a little bit of wind through the
Purcell Trench and across the Columbia Basin. The thick mid level
cloud cover and light winds at the surface will mean that we wont
see nearly as much fog overnight like what we saw earlier Tuesday
morning. In fact, the dense fog advisory that was in effect earlier
was cancelled a bit early just before 1pm Tuesday as satellite
imagery and web cams confirm that fog had dissipated substantially
by that point.

Wednesday night through Friday night: The end of the work week will
bring a wetter and breezier period. A trough of low pressure digs
and elongates off of the west coast and across the eastern Pacific
Wednesday night into Thursday. The region will remain in a moist
southwesterly flow pattern with Pwats remaining generally up around
180% of normal within the warm sector. Precipitation will generally
be focused along the Cascade crest Wednesday night. Then we see
precipitation chances increasing east of the crest across Eastern
Washington into the Idaho Panhandle on Thursday. The cold front
passage looks to be Thursday evening across Eastern Washington into
the Idaho Panhandle overnight Thursday. Dynamics along the front
with some support aloft will result in widespread precipitation.
Drying in the lee of the Cascades will occur on Friday when precip
effectively shuts off in the Okanogan Valley and Wenatchee Area to
the western Columbia Basin. Upslope flow into the Cascades and
across the Idaho Panhandle will keep light precipitation going
through Friday night. Snow levels drop with cold front passage down
to around 4,000 to 4,500 feet. This will result in light snow
accumulating over Washington Pass, Stevens Pass, and Lookout Pass.
Washington Pass and Stevens Pass will see the potential for winter
travel as early as overnight Thursday into Friday morning.
Temperatures may not cool enough to see snow accumulate over Lookout
Pass until Friday morning, and snow may see a better chance of
accumulating here as temperatures cool Friday night. Impacts from
snow over mountain passes will likely be minor. Expect total
accumulation Thursday night through Friday night of between 3-7
inches. Winds will be breezy particularly with the cold front
passage. Expect winds to pick from the south on Thursday ahead of
the front then see a shift to westerly overnight on Thursday and
remain breezy into Friday. Wind gusts are expected to be in the 25
to 35 mph range with stiffest winds in the Friday morning period.

Saturday through Monday: Shortwave ridging of higher pressure passes
through on Saturday with a break in the unsettled weather; however,
the upper level jet will direct another plume of moisture into the
Northwest region by Sunday into Monday. This period will result in
additional light precipitation most notably additional light snow in
the mountains and minor impacts over mountain passes. Snow levels
increase a bit with the passing of the shortwave ridge to between
5,000-6,000 feet as precipitation starts Saturday night. Snow levels
will then drop as the upper level trough shifts in over the region
Sunday night into Monday morning. This will be the period where snow
is most likely to stick over the mountain passes especially Stevens
Pass and Lookout Pass. Stevens Pass and Washington Pass will see the
potential for an additional 3-7 inches and Lookout Pass an
additional few inches of snow that may result in minor travel
impacts. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Areas of stratus linger for the Okanogan
Valley, valleys of NE Washington, a patch south of Moses Lake,
and the Lewiston- Clarkston Valley as of 23z this afternoon.
Models are struggling with the precise details of the stratus
locations, so satellite trends were utilized especially for the
first 6 hours. Starting with GEG/KSFF: A patch of IFR/MVFR
stratus lingers but is showing signs of eroding. With the
easterly gradient as well as some drying in the boundary layer
from the south, this stratus deck is expected to continue
shrinking and eventually dissipate through 04z. For KLWS: IFR
stratus is trapped in the valley and with little change in
boundary layer conditions forecast leans towards little
improvement. Elsewhere VFR conditions are favored to continue
(including KEAT/KMWH/KPUW). A warm front moving in tonight will
result in thick mid level cloud cover which should limit
expansion of stratus. There is a 30-60% chance for light rain
from KEAT/KMWH/KEPH to KGEG/KSFF/KCOE overnight after 06Z.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Moderate confidence that IFR/MVFR stratus clears out of
KGEG/KSFFbetween 2z-4z. Moderate confidence that stratus will
linger at KLWS, but low confidence on precise levels (could rise
from IFR to MVFR). High confidence that KPUW remains VFR. JW
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        37  53  39  56  39  49 /  30  30   0  70  80  50
Coeur d`Alene  38  54  41  57  41  48 /  50  40  10  70  90  70
Pullman        42  59  44  59  40  49 /  10  10   0  60  80  70
Lewiston       46  64  47  65  46  56 /  10   0   0  30  70  50
Colville       29  48  32  50  34  49 /  30  70  20  90  90  60
Sandpoint      34  50  37  52  39  46 /  60  80  20  80 100  90
Kellogg        41  59  47  59  42  45 /  50  40  10  70 100  90
Moses Lake     37  54  39  55  38  53 /  10  10  10  70  40  10
Wenatchee      40  50  42  52  39  52 /  20  20  30  80  60  20
Omak           36  48  37  51  38  51 /  10  30  20  80  50  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$