794
FXUS66 KOTX 270813
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1213 AM PST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow impacting travel in the East Slopes of Cascades and
  along Hwy 20 tonight through Thanksgiving then Lookout Pass
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Colder temperatures over weekend into next week with
  occasional chances for snow.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Precipitation moves in today becoming more widespread this
afternoon. A mix of rain and snow is expected for the northern
mountain valleys and additional light snow over mountain passes
resulting in minor impacts to travel. Temperatures cool to below
normal over the weekend. A couple weather system one around
Saturday and another early next week will bring the potential
for additional light snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: Satellite imagery shows a tightly wound low
pressure system spinning in the eastern Pacific at roughly 46N 133W
near midnight. Light precipitaiton will form along a warm front this
morning and push into the northern mountains by noon today. A little
bit of snow may fall in the valleys of the east slopes of the
Cascades and colder pockets of the northern mountain valleys, but
little if any accumulations is expected with how light this
precipitation is expected to be. The trailing cold front will then
push across the Inland Northwest and occlude with the warm front in
the afternoon. Precipitation will increase across the region as this
happens. Snow levels will generally be above valleys floors by this
time except possibly up into the Methow Valley where colder air will
have a harder time scrubbing out. Snow will mainly impact the
higher mountain passes including Washington Pass and Sherman
Pass for the afternoon with light accumulations in the range of
3 to 5 inches expected.

The upper level low will push across tonight into Friday morning. It
will fill as it does so, but will bring added dynamics that will
enhance precipitation across the southern Washington Cascades
to the southern to central Idaho Panhandle. It will be this
evening to overnight period where precipitation will transition
over to snow for Stevens Pass and Lookout Pass. Both will see
around 2 to 4 inches of snow. Accumulations will be light and
snow will be wet and slick. Snow will be winding down over the
Cascades by early Friday. Snow for Lookout Pass will be
occurring through the morning Friday, and I have concerns that
travel over this pass will be difficult for holiday travelers
after the Thanksgiving Holiday. As such, I went ahead and issued
an Winter Weather Advisory just for Lookout Pass that is in
effect for 10PM Thursday through 1PM Friday. The rest of I-90
will see little or no accumulating snow with this next storm
system.

Friday night through Thursday: The longwave upper level pressure
pattern will be ridging over the eastern Pacific and troughing over
the Rockies to the central U.S. This will place the Inland Northwest
under a drier and colder northerly flow pattern. This isn`t to say
that it will be completely dry as model guidance does show
disturbances that drop down in the colder flow pattern. One looks to
be Saturday into Saturday night. There isn`t a lot of moisture with
this shortwave and may just bring some cloud cover across the
region. A better chance for wintry precipitation will be early next
week. Uncertainty remains high with potential snow
accumulations next week as there is a lot of variability with
precipitation amounts. Main potential for winter travel will be
Monday night into Tuesday, and the Idaho Panhandle will be a
favored area for precipitation. Impacts looks minor at this
point, but something to watch out for if the stronger model
solutions look to verify. Wednesday looks dry before additional
moisture that may bring light snow at least in the mountains for
Thursday. Temperatures cool to below normal over the weekend
and then see a slight increase to around normal for late
November early next week. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: The boundary layer remains moist, but a persistent
northeast wind will limit how low the stratus layer will lower,
especially across the Columbia Basin as this will be a gradual
downsloping flow pattern. IFR to MVFR ceilings will be common
banked up along the east slopes of the Cascades, Columbia Basin,
and into northeast Washington and in the Idaho Panhandle.
Ceilings are expected to hover between 200-600 ft agl at KGEG
where low IFR conditions are expected to remain into the
Thanksgiving Holiday. A weak warm front will slowly lift across
the area overnight bringing a 30-50% chance for light rain to
airports across the region. A better chance for steady rain will
come as the trailing cold front occludes with the warm front
through the day Thursday. This will keep ceilings down and
surface visibility between 2-6 miles with the precipitation and
IFR conditions through the afternoon and evening on
Thanksgiving.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high
confidence for widespread MVFR conditions overnight with the
warm front. Confidence increases for widespread IFR conditions
as precipitation intensifies and expands across the region with
the frontal occlusion this Thanksgiving afternoon and evening.
Precipitaiton will bring a 20-40% chance for visibility
lowering to below 3SM regionwide and a 30-60% chance for
ceilings below 1,000 feet agl. The exception will be the LWS
terminal where confidence is high for VFR conditions to prevail
through the period. /SVH

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        41  35  41  25  36  21 /  90  90  40   0  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  41  34  39  24  35  21 /  90  90  60  10  10  10
Pullman        44  36  41  27  38  26 /  80 100  90  20  10  20
Lewiston       49  41  45  32  41  31 /  50  90  90  10  10  20
Colville       39  27  42  21  37  17 / 100  90  20  10  10   0
Sandpoint      39  31  38  21  32  18 / 100 100  70  10  10  10
Kellogg        44  35  39  23  35  21 /  90 100  90  20  10  20
Moses Lake     43  35  46  28  40  23 /  90  80  20   0  10  10
Wenatchee      41  36  44  32  38  28 /  90  80  20   0  10  10
Omak           39  32  41  27  37  23 /  90  60   0   0  10   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory in effect for 10 PM PST Thursday
through 1 PM PST Friday for Lookout Pass in the Central
Panhandle Mountains.
ID...None.

&&

$$