193
FXUS66 KOTX 220817
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1217 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Minimal weather impacts outside morning fog through Sunday
  morning.

- Snow returns to the mountain passes Sunday evening and night.

- Gusty winds with a cold front passage Sunday night through
  Monday.

- Light valley snow and cooler temperatures Tuesday night into
  Wednesday. Moderate snow on the mountain passes.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will remain quiet through Sunday with near to warmer
than normal temperatures. A low pressure system will move in at
the end of the weekend. Snow will impact the mountain passes
beginning Sunday evening and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This midweek system will bring the potential for light snow in
the lowlands and moderate to heavy snow over the mountains.
Mainly light mountain showers on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through tomorrow: For the next day or so, zonal flow will
remain over the region, bringing few weather impacts to the forecast
area. Temperatures remain warmer than normal through Sunday. There
is the potential for fog development throughout the area this
morning, but it will be heavily dependent on cloud cover and will be
patchy. With low temperatures below freezing, any areas where fog
does form could get icy through the morning.

Sunday night through Monday: A low pressure system off the coast of
British Columbia will drop down into the Pacific Northwest Sunday
night, bringing a change in weather pattern and precipitation to the
area. The front associated with this low pressure system will move
through Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing with it gusty winds
to the Waterville Plateau, Columbia Basin, Northeast Blue Mountains,
Spokane/Coeur d`Alene and Lewiston/Pullman areas. Gusts will reach
25-30 mph. Probabilities for max gusts are highest in the
southeastern portion of the forecast area, with Lewiston and Pullman
having a 30-50 percent chance of seeing maximum wind gusts of 35 mph
or more. The Northeast Blues have a 70% chance and higher of seeing
35 mph. Ahead of the cold front, precipitation will be mostly rain
except for mountain passes. The cold air ushered in by the front
will lower snow levels to 2000-3500 feet. Mountain passes will see
the most impactful snowfall through Monday night. Washington Pass
will see 2-4 inches, and Stevens Pass will see 3-5 inches of snow.
In summary, with heightened traveling this week due to the upcoming
Thanksgiving holiday, people intending to travel over mountain
passes Sunday and Monday night should prepare for wintry conditions.

Tuesday through Thursday: Tuesday is looking to be the best day for
travel over next week, with minimal snow and rain accumulation
expected. On Wednesday, a plume of moisture will move through,
raising PWATs to nearly 150 percent of normal. This moisture will
interact with embedded shortwaves and bring further precipitation to
much of the forecast area. Mountain snow will be the biggest impact,
with Washington and Stevens Passes having a 40-50 percent chance of
seeing 6 inches of snow or more. Lookout Pass right now will see
snow totals of 3-5 inches. Additionally, with snow levels having
been brought down by the colder air mass, there is a chance for
lowlands to see snow as well, with areas such as Spokane, CdA,
Colville, and Pullman having a 10-20 percent chance of seeing 0.5
inches of snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Steady
precipitation will last through Thursday afternoon, with only
mountain snow remaining through Thursday night. Moderate impacts
from snow could be seen at mountain passes, so travelers should keep
a close eye on conditions before traveling. There may be some travel
impacts in the lowlands with the light amounts of snow, but this
will transition to rain near the end of the event. Regardless, since
this is such a heavy travel time, people should prepare for wintry
conditions, especially along the mountain passes.

Friday through next weekend: As we move into the extended forecast,
long-range models have little agreement on the overall pattern.
Three of the four clusters have higher heights over the forecast
area on Friday, but then diverge significantly on Saturday with half
of the clusters showing lower heights and the other half showing
higher heights. Right now, the CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show
signals pointing to below normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation. We`ll continue monitoring this closely throughout the
week. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: High clouds will move over GEG-SFF-COE-PUW-LWS through
the night, and then will clear by 18-21Z, with GEG-SFF-COE
clearing out around 18Z and PUW-LWS clearing out by 21Z. Skies
will stay mainly VFR or MVFR through the TAF period. EAT-MWH
ceilings are currently degraded due to boundary layer moisture,
with both expected to see IFR/LIFR conditions. MWH will have
visibilities drop as low as 1/4 mile with freezing fog
formation. Ceilings will mostly improve by 20Z.


.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Moderate confidence for IFR conditions to persist at MWH and EAT
through the night. High confidence in VFR conditions at GEG-
SFF-COE-PUW-LWS with decreasing clouds by 18-21Z. There is a low
chance of fog formation at GEG-SFF. /AS

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        47  37  47  30  43  24 /   0  20  70  70  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  47  37  47  31  41  26 /   0  20  70  90  20  10
Pullman        50  36  47  30  40  24 /   0   0  50  90  30  10
Lewiston       52  39  53  36  47  29 /   0   0  30  80  20  10
Colville       44  32  44  25  43  19 /  10  40  80  70  10   0
Sandpoint      45  35  44  31  40  24 /  10  40  90 100  50  10
Kellogg        50  39  47  31  38  26 /   0  10  70 100  60  30
Moses Lake     44  34  45  28  47  23 /   0  10  40  20   0   0
Wenatchee      44  37  46  32  45  28 /   0  20  50  20   0   0
Omak           43  35  43  29  43  26 /  10  10  40  20   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$