047
FXUS64 KOUN 112305
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 603 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

  - Low-medium (20-50%) chance for rain/storms across portions of
    Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday night into Monday.

  - Warm, dry and breezy conditions lead to fire weather concern
    across north and west Oklahoma on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Another day of warm and dry weather is on tap to begin the weekend.
While a persistent central CONUS ridge will remain the main driver
of sensible conditions today, we will begin to see a transition in
the synoptic regime, with a shortwave trough moving into the
Intermountain West. Lee pressure falls will foster a breezy south
wind and warm temperatures this afternoon. Both daytime highs and
overnight lows are forecast to remain +10-15 degree above climo
average. No precipitation is expected, though increasing coverage of
high clouds is expected during the day.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

In a relative sense, Sunday & Monday will feature the most
"impactful" weather over the last week. The previously mentioned
upper trough will continue to advance eastward on Sunday. An
increasing gradient in surface pressure, in response to lee
cyclogenesis, will promote a gusty (in excess of 25-30 mph) south
wind, especially across north and west Oklahoma. Combined with
warm temperatures (90+ degrees in spots) and recent/prolonged dry
weather, a low-end fire weather environment is forecast to emerge
in areas west of Interstate 44 during the afternoon and early
evening.

However, additional offsetting factors (i.e., lack of significant
upper jet/speed max intrusion and potential for areas of high
clouds over the risk area) increase uncertainty in the magnitude
of this concern. Still, given hot, dry and breezy conditions
expected, will maintain the message of some degree of fire
weather threat on Sunday.

By Sunday night/Monday morning, a fetch of tropical moisture will
begin to overspread the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. Coverage of
scattered rain showers is expected to increase accordingly. A
slow-moving cold front, trailing from an ejecting surface low
across the Dakotas, is likely to serve as a focus for greatest
(and longest duration) coverage on Monday. This remains most
likely across western into northern Oklahoma. Sufficient elevated
instability may also yield a few lightning strikes/rumbles of
thunder during this time, though severe weather is not currently
anticipated.

The aforementioned front is expected to slow, stall and eventually
weaken on Monday night, with generally decreasing chances for rain
from southeast-to-northwest over time as a sub-tropical ridge
begins to expand northward from Texas.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

As we go through Tuesday into Wednesday the upper ridge begins to
build back northward, although perhaps the ridge axis may be a bit
further to the east this time around. Sensible weather-wise will not
matter as temperatures once again climb well above seasonal norms
and dry conditions are then anticipated through the remainder of the
week.

May see the ridge break down again by the following weekend as
possible pattern change occurs and stronger southwest flow develops
across the central CONUS and stronger storm system may impact the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions with mid and high clouds. S to SE winds are
expected this evening with winds becoming southerly and breezy
Sunday. LLWS is possible late tonight/early Sunday at KWWR and
KCSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  89  69  78 /   0  10  10  20
Hobart OK         64  91  67  80 /   0  10  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  63  92  69  85 /   0  10  10  10
Gage OK           66  87  61  72 /   0  10  30  50
Ponca City OK     64  91  66  75 /   0  10  20  40
Durant OK         61  89  66  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25