259
FXUS64 KOUN 080641
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1241 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

 - Another cool day today ahead of unseasonably warm temperatures
   through midweek.

 - Another cold front by Friday may bring a return to chilly
   below- normal temperatures heading into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1238 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Low clouds will persist across the eastern two-thirds of Oklahoma
and may spread westward a bit through the early morning hours. Where
clear skies continue with light winds, across western Oklahoma and
into adjacent portions of western north Texas, radiational patchy to
areas of freezing fog may develop. Some localized areas of dense fog
remain possible, but confidence is low on exact location at this
time and an advisory will be issued based on hourly observations.
Temperatures are already below freezing as of midnight outside of
the low status deck across western Oklahoma. Temperatures under the
low clouds will be insolated and struggle to drop this morning. Any
fog that develops will dissipate by mid to late morning today, while
the low clouds may take a bit longer to clear out, especially across
central and eastern Oklahoma. Southerly surface winds will return in
the west as the surface high departs, allowing for warming
temperatures into the 50s where clouds can clear out, while highs
may be limited to the upper 40s across areas with lingering cloud
cover and slower heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tuesday will start the warming trend through the week with
northwesterly flow aloft as a shortwave slides across the Midwest
and surface troughing develops to our west. Breezy and warm
southerly surface flow will give way to above-normal temperatures in
the 60s and even some areas across  western north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma approaching the lower 70s. South-southwesterly
winds will increase through the afternoon with gusts up to 20 to 25
mph possible.

A cold front will slide south across the area Tuesday night, but
with the surface low as far north as the Midwest and moving into the
Great Lakes Region, the bulk of colder air will likely remain north
of the forecast area. Wednesday may feature only about a 5 degree
drop in daytime highs from Tuesday. Thus, still expecting near to
above seasonable temperatures by midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Heading into the latter half of the week and into the weekend, the
pattern aloft continues to feature northwesterly flow aloft with a
strong jet digging into the Plains. There is decent confidence of
this cold front at the end of the week bringing cold air by the
weekend. However, the latest ensemble guidance indicates delay in
the timing of the coldest airmass. Grand ensemble temperature
spreads of the 25th vs 75th percentiles (upper quartile and lower
quartile) have narrowed with the most recent 12/8 00z model run and
generally have the coldest air not pushing into Oklahoma until
Saturday and nearly 5 degree spreads both Friday and Saturday (lower
to mid 50s and upper 30s to lower 40s, respectively). Cluster
analysis reveals nearly 80 percent of the models agree with this
delayed solution of the colder air, while 20 percent of the members
continues to dig cold air into the forecast area by Friday. The
extended forecast continues to remain dry with no precipitation
chances with these fronts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The stratus is persisting longer tonight and slowly expanding
westward into western Oklahoma including terminal KSPS in adjacent
western north Texas. Expecting all our terminals under the
stratus to remain in a MVFR category through 12Z then ceilings may
further lower to a high end IFR category through 17Z. Radiational
fog may develop under clear skies just west of the stratus which
may affect terminal KCSM as early as 10Z. The fog may start out
patchy reducing terminal KCSM to an IFR category. Should the fog
become more locally dense at terminal KCSM with further lowered
visibilities could reduce that terminal to an LIFR category with
freezing fog between 12-15Z as a TEMPO is in place. After 17Z all
terminals should stay in a VFR category through the remainder of
the forecast. Current surface winds are light & northerly to light
& variable but expecting them to shift out of the south after 17Z
at 10 kts then veer south-southwesterly overnight after 01Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  34  62  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         52  30  63  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  52  35  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           58  30  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     47  31  63  39 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         49  33  63  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68