400
FXUS64 KOUN 231107
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
507 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 503 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Rainfall is likely late Sunday into Monday along with a risk of
  locally heavy rainfall.

- Turning cooler towards middle of next week with low
  temperatures near the freezing mark.

- Much colder weather expected next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Closed upper low over Arizona ejects northeast today, although the
slower trend and upper shortwave ridging out ahead of the low will
limit precip development across the area through much of the
daylight hours today. Western Oklahoma southward into western north
Texas will likely see precip move in from the west during the
mid/late afternoon hours. Although some thunder appears possible,
limited instability will keep any severe weather in check.

Otherwise, pesky fog and possibly low clouds will make for a dreary
start to the day and its getting to that time of year where these
things linger longer than anticipated. However, anticipate at least
from mid-morning into the early afternoon some sun before clouds
begin to increase from the approaching system to our west,
temperatures should respond back into the 60s across much of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

As we go into tonight and approach of piece of energy rotating
around base of trough and increased isentropic lift should see more
widespread precipitation. Although some heavier rainfall amounts
still appear possible across southern into southeastern Oklahoma,
where 1 to 2 inches of rain could occur. Across areas north and west
of I-44 precip amounts may be tempered by a dry slot working into
western sections of Oklahoma during the evening. Could see
sufficient elevated instability develop as far north as north Texas
for a few strong storms across this area Sunday evening.

Rain, possibly heavy, lingers across southeast into the first part
of the day Monday and a few wrap-around showers possible north-
central. As the storm system exits, a weak front will move across
bringing initially nothing more than a wind shift to the area for
Monday night into early Tuesday.  A reinforcing shot of colder then
moves quickly south through the Plains by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

This secondary front will bring a colder Canadian airmass into the
area for mid-week. Wednesday will see a breezy north wind and cooler
temperatures. This will be somewhat short-lived as the surface high
quickly shifts east during the day Wednesday with south winds
returning from west to east late in the day. Temperatures should
rebound some on Thanksgiving day close to normal for late November.

Gusty south winds expected Friday into Saturday with a few degrees
of warming both days. These winds will bring increasing amounts of
gulf moisture into the area. This moisture along with shortwave
trough and increasing waa Friday night may lead to another chance of
rain developing across the area, which then continues into the
weekend.

Many of the models are then showing a very strong Canadian airmass
plunging south through the Plains, bringing by far the coldest air
of the season to Oklahoma and north Texas by late Saturday into
Sunday. The bigger question is will there be any wintry precip
possible during this time frame. Models differ significantly both
from model to model and run to run with this possibility this far
out, but will be something to keep a close eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 503 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Fog has developed in much of central and north central Oklahoma,
becoming dense at times. While most locations are seeing low
visibilities become more persistent, a few sites may continue to
see visibilities bounce up and down. Fog will be slow to erode
with most guidance holding onto fog until mid to late morning.

Rain enters the forecast late in the TAF period. Tonight we will
see ceilings and visibilities tank once again.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  51  65  46 /  10  80  40   0
Hobart OK         65  49  68  41 /  70  70  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  53  71  45 /  60  90  40   0
Gage OK           63  45  63  36 /  80  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     63  49  63  45 /   0  70  50  10
Durant OK         66  54  67  50 /   0  90  90  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for OKZ008-012-
     013-017>020-024>032-040>042.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...14