170
FXUS64 KOUN 140707
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
107 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1252 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Monday

 - Precipitation chances return by mid next week with heavy
   rainfall possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1252 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Drier air behind a weak surface trough is expected to move into
western Oklahoma through early/mid morning Friday.  Patchy fog
may develop just to the east of the trough by sunrise.  Any fog
that forms should dissipate by 9 am.  Otherwise, another very warm
day is in store with near-record to record temperatures possible.


Record high temperatures for Friday, November 14th
OKC             80
Wichita Falls   86
Lawton          83

Afternoon humidity is expected to drop below 20 percent near
and just east of the 100th meridian.  Despite the heat and dry
air, surface winds are not expected to be overly strong across
far western Oklahoma.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1252 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A pre-frontal trough will move into northwestern Oklahoma during the
overnight hours Friday/early Saturday morning, with the main cold
front well to the north. By late Saturday afternoon, the wind
shift associated with the front will extend from southwestern
Oklahoma into northeastern parts of the state. Record heat is
certainly possible across at least the southern half of Oklahoma
and western north Texas Saturday afternoon. Afternoon highs are
expected to reach the mid to upper 80s with a few 90 degree
readings possible. Fortunately, surface winds near and ahead of
the front are not expected to be overly strong, as afternoon
humidity may fall below 20 percent across parts of southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas.

The cold front/wind shift is expected to stall across far southern
Oklahoma and northern Texas late Saturday night into early Sunday.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1252 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A weak northeast to east wind is expected Sunday with temperatures
still warming into the 70s and lower 80s.  A shortwave trough will
move across the central Plains late Sunday night into Monday as
surface low pressure tracks across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas.  This will bring a return of near-record temperatures
and veered southwesterly surface winds.

An elevated fire environment is certainly possible across parts
of western Oklahoma and western north Texas where deeper mixing
and stronger winds are anticipated. By mid afternoon Monday, a
cold front will begin to enter parts of northern Oklahoma.
Although stronger than the cold front Saturday, temperatures will
only cool into the 60s and 70s by Tuesday afternoon


By late Tuesday into Wednesday, rain and thunderstorm chances
will increase as a trough/upper low approaches from the
west/southwest. At this time, the exact track of the trough is
uncertain as well as surface features. However, with only weak
fronts moving across the southern Plains in advance of this
system, ample surface moisture will either be across or just south
of the area. Although precipitation is needed, locally heavy
rainfall and flooding may become a concern by Wednesday/Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Areas of stratus/fog may reduce category (at least on a localized
basis) towards sunrise on Friday. Have opted to favor TEMPO over
prevailing groups given the expected broken nature of coverage
across the region. However, the most aggressive guidance still
tends to favor more persistent reduced category (to IFR) from
west-central into north-central Oklahoma into the mid-morning
hours. These trends will be monitored leading up to the next
forecast update.

Low-level wind shear will also be a concern overnight ahead of a
slow-moving/weak front, currently entering portions of
northwestern Oklahoma.

Widespread VFR conditions will return by Friday afternoon, with
an occasionally gusty southwest wind across portions of central
and southern Oklahoma.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  79  59  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         80  52  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  83  56  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           83  48  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     79  53  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         83  61  83  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...09