333
FXUS64 KOUN 031750
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1150 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1145 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

 - Cold front arrives tonight with drizzle and cooling
   temperatures through daybreak.

 - A mix of snow and sleet is expected across western and central
   Oklahoma from tomorrow morning to tomorrow afternoon, with
   brief accumulation and travel impacts possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A surface low is currently located across southern Oklahoma. An area
of warm advection to its east has led to a narrow deck of stratus
across our eastern zones today. This low will continue to shift
eastward with winds shifting more uniformly to northerly this
evening.

A reinforcing "cold front" will arrive this evening, though surface
observations suggest that temperatures in Kansas are actually not
that cold. Expecting a several-hour window for some drizzle or
potentially showers along and immediately behind this reinforcing
front this evening due to 700 mb warm advection, especially as
midnight approaches. With that said, there are a couple of
mitigating factors to potential travel impacts with this band of
precipitation. First of all, wet-bulb temperatures don`t look to
fall below freezing in northern Oklahoma until a little after
midnight. At this point, falling temperatures will be driven by
advection of drier surface air in from Kansas, which will make it
difficult for freezing drizzle to occur. Therefore, we do expect
most of the postfrontal drizzle tonight to remain "liquid" drizzle
on contact with the ground, though a period of light freezing
drizzle is possible across northern Oklahoma late tonight with
potential travel impacts to elevated surfaces were this to occur.

As we approach daybreak, the more synoptically driven precipitation
of this event will begin to occur. For the sake of concise reading,
will include that in the short-term AFD.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

By daybreak tomorrow, the 500 mb trough that is approaching from the
desert southwest will reach the southern plains. Guidance
consistently shows this feature being sheared out as it arrives,
with 500 mb heights tending neutral to only very slightly negative.
So sources of lift for precipitation tomorrow will need to be found
elsewhere than from looking at the pure synoptics.

With that said, there is a mesoscale-level driver for precipitation
to be found beginning tomorrow morning. Recent runs of
mesoscale/global models depict a tighter 700 mb gradient than runs
from 48 hours ago, indicating stronger frontogenesis occurring
within that layer. Oftentimes when we see these 700 mb FGEN type
setups, what ends up developing is one or two narrow bands of
moderate precipitation will develop right along that FGEN axis
parallel to 700 mb isotherms. These bands can be notoriously hard to
forecast in part because of the sharp cutoff in QPFs on both ends of
them and questions on where the front exactly sets up. Right now,
confidence is moderate-high (50-75%) that we do see an FGEN band
with at least 1+ inch of snow or 0.25+ inches of sleet across a
portion of western and central Oklahoma. However, the odds that any
one spot (e.g. Clinton, Hobart, Oklahoma City, Woodward) ends up
within the FGEN band is lower (15-35%). Impacts within the higher-
QPF zone are likely to include accumulation of snow or sleet on
elevated and grassy surfaces and brief slick/treacherous travel on
roadways tomorrow morning. Outside of the band, lighter snow/sleet
is still likely to be observed, but impacts are much less likely.

Bottom line: this is not an easy forecast, and
it`s not a slam dunk. Make sure to plan out how you can mitigate
possible travel hazards tomorrow if needed, while knowing that it`s
likelier than not that they won`t be needed at your location.

A more widespread area of precipitation will develop across Texas
tomorrow and could clip into southern, southeastern, and maybe
central Oklahoma from late morning through early afternoon. This is
likely to be a cold rain for most people, but there`s some chance
for freezing rain or sleet on the northern end of it. All
precipitation will come to an end tomorrow evening.

The sun will come back out Friday. Winds will return to southerly,
though they don`t look to be all that strong. Temperatures will warm
up 10-15 degrees to be near normal for this time of year (unless
there`s any light snowpack in place that needs to be melted first).

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Overall, the weekend temperatures will remain near average and
even getting to above average by early next week. Another Canadian
front will move through the area Saturday into Sunday, with not
much change to the overall temperatures. Dry conditions will
continue through early next week.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Areas of light winter precipitation is expected Thursday morning,
although amounts will be relatively light in most areas.

Initially conditions will remain VFR this afternoon with high
clouds across the area. A cold front moving through the area has
shifted winds to northerly across northern and western Oklahoma,
and the winds will become northerly elsewhere this afternoon as
this front continues to move southeast.

Low-level moisture increases tonight with MVFR ceilings developing.
Winter precipitation will also develop, and while measurable
precipitation is not expected to be widespread, there is at least
some potential to affect airport operations in the morning.
Precipitation type is expected to generally be light snow in
northern Oklahoma, snow and/or sleet central and much of western
Oklahoma, rain and/or sleet in western north Texas, and primarily
rain in southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  28  33  24  49 /  20  30   0   0
Hobart OK         28  36  22  52 /  30  30   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  33  40  27  57 /  20  20   0   0
Gage OK           24  37  21  51 /  30  30   0   0
Ponca City OK     24  35  22  50 /  10  20   0   0
Durant OK         36  41  30  53 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26