050
FXUS64 KOUN 051124
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
524 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

 - Potential for freezing fog across portions of western/northern
   Oklahoma early this morning, which could lead to reduced
   visibility and slick spots, especially along elevated
   roadways.

 - Areas of fog and/or freezing fog with reduced visibility is
   possible again tonight into Saturday morning, mainly along and
   east of the I-35 north and I-44 south corridor.

 - Cooler day on Sunday behind a front before generally seasonable
   and dry conditions heading into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1251 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Current observations as of Midnight show some patchy low clouds and
mist (3-5 mile visibility) developing across localized areas of
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Patchy freezing fog remains
possible through the early morning hours today with increasing
surface moisture and light winds. However, there is not a strong
signal for areas of persistent fog and any fog development may be
localized. The latest HREF has a medium-to-high (40-70%) chance for
visibility less than 0.5 miles across portions of southern and
western Oklahoma in the next few hours. The fog may advect northward
through the morning hours with lower chances (30-50%) for reduced
visibility less than 0.5 miles. Patchy dense fog development may
develop this morning and be localized to areas roughly the size of a
county or less at times. The aforementioned HREF probabilities help
to try and capture the localized nature of the fog by using a 25km
neighborhood radius. With sub-freezing temperatures spread across
much of Oklahoma and into portions of western north Texas this
morning, any fog that develops is likely to be freezing fog.
Therefore, any minor accretion could cause slick areas, especially
on elevated roadways such as bridges/overpasses.

As the sun rises this morning and temperatures warm, any fog will
clear. A weak trough will bring a brief shift of winds to the north
today, but overall temperatures are expected to return to normal and
be nearly 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday. Expect mostly sunny
skies today before some high clouds move in from the north later
this afternoon/evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 1251 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Another round of fog is possible tonight, with higher confidence of
occurrence and location. The greatest chances for patchy to areas of
fog will be roughly eastward from a line along I-35 north and I-44
south. There is medium-to-high confidence (50-80%) fog development
based on HREF probabilities of 0.5 mile visibility or less. With
borderline freezing temperatures into Saturday morning, some
freezing fog may develop. Overall, fog development would likely
begin a few hours after midnight and continue through most of the
morning. There is a signal for low clouds and fog to continue into
the afternoon hours across portions of central and southeast
Oklahoma, which could alter high temperatures for the day.

Breezy winds may develop Saturday morning across western Oklahoma
and adjacent portions of western north Texas with a strengthening
surface low in the Plains. The embedded shortwave aloft will push
the low southeastward and bring a front through the area Saturday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1251 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

By Sunday the surface high will sink into the Southern Plains and
bring a shot of cooler air into Oklahoma and north Texas. The
remainder of next week will feature northwesterly flow aloft with
several embedded shortwaves and a few fronts. No precipitation is
expected in the extended and overall temperatures will remain
fairly mild with most of the fronts with a potential for
temperatures to return to near or above-normal through much of
midweek. There is a stronger front on the horizon towards the end
of the week, which could bring another batch of cold wintry air.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Low stratus will continue to affect parts of the area this
morning. Reduced visibility of 3-5 miles from BR will continue
across parts of the area through mid-morning. FG development will
then be possible Fri night/early Saturday. A return of low stratus
will also be possible again tonight/early Sat. S to SW winds will
gradually shift as front and sfc low move across parts of the fa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  50  31  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         52  27  57  32 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  59  34  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           50  24  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     50  29  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         52  35  56  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...25