792
FXUS64 KOUN 301118
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 614 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions to persist
   through the coming week.

-  Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms (less than 20
   percent) Saturday night and early Sunday across northern
   Oklahoma.

 - Chance for a pattern change next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Mid and high clouds will decrease from west to east today, as a
shortwave trough moves slowly across the southern Plains.  There`s
still a low chance of a few sprinkles, but overall most of the
precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground.  The cloud
cover will also limit better radiation cooling, so there will likely
be less ground fog this morning, compared to the past several days.
Otherwise, above average temperatures are expected this afternoon
with a mainly light southerly wind.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

A low-level jet will develop across the High Plains Tuesday night
with a weak shortwave trough moving across eastern Colorado into
western Kansas during the overnight hours.  This will likely result
in an increase in mid-level clouds with a low chance of a shower or
two across far northwestern Oklahoma.  Otherwise, a ridge will begin
to build back to the north and east Wednesday night into Thursday.
Therefore, warmer temperatures will return along with dry
conditions. The wind will be southerly Wednesday into Thursday and
will be a little gusty across western Oklahoma during the afternoon
hours each day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Most deterministic models and associated ensemble members suggest
a western trough will be located over the far western states
Friday. This feature is expected to move east and north Saturday
into early Sunday with some weakening with time. This will flatten
the ridge over the southern and central Plains and will bring a
low chance of showers/storms to mainly northern Oklahoma. The best
chance for rain over the weekend appears to be in the late
Saturday into early Sunday timeframe. Although the ridge may
rebuild somewhat late in the weekend, a longwave trough is
expected to remain in some form or fashion across the western U.S.
This in time should bring better chances of precipitation and
perhaps a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

VFR conditions through the period at all sites with light and
variable winds this morning becoming predominantly south-
southeasterly through the day. High clouds will clear from west to
east through the day as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  84  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         87  61  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  86  62  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           84  61  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     85  60  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         86  61  88  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...23