523
FXUS64 KOUN 241700
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1100 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1055 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Light rain, drizzle, patchy fog lingers over northern and east-
  central Oklahoma into this afternoon.

- Turning cooler towards middle of this week with low
  temperatures near the freezing mark.

- Much colder weather possible next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Lowered high temperatures for northern into east-central Oklahoma
with persistent cloud-cover, showers, drizzle, and patchy fog
slowly expected to shift eastward throughout the day. Increased
POPs a bit to account for wrap-around showers into the afternoon.

Thompson

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Lift from upper wave and strong waa will continue to aid precip
development across southeast third/half of Oklahoma into north Texas
through the remainder of the night. This will also continue through
much of the morning hours on Monday before things gradually shift
east of the area Late Monday afternoon and evening. Some areas of
south-central into southeast Oklahoma could pick up an additional 1
to 2 inches of rain before it comes to an end.

Farther north, some wrap-around precip will be possible across north
central Oklahoma. Amounts associated with this will remain light.

Otherwise, much like last night will have to deal with some fog,
some of which could be dense and may linger through the morning
hours. Will continue to monitor for this possibility and the
potential for a Dense Fog Advisory as we go through the remainder of
the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Early Tuesday a weak surface trough will move southeast across the
area with little more than a wind shift. However as a stronger
shortwave trough moves through the northern Plains, a much stronger
front will plunge south through the area Tuesday afternoon. Could
see some falling afternoon temps across the northwest half of the
area by afternoon. Another freeze is possible along and north of I-
44 by Wednesday morning with northwest Oklahoma having another hard
freeze.

Cooler day anticipated on Wednesday as the cooler surface high
settles south over the southern Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Surface ridge remains in place through the Plains for Thanksgiving
day with some modification of the airmass allowing temperatures to
rebound into the 50s and lower 60s by Thursday afternoon.

Surface ridge shifts east by Friday with breezy south winds
developing. This will draw gulf moisture quickly northward and with
strong waa expected by late Friday and Friday night showers and even
a few thunderstorms appear possible. The precip will likely continue
through the weekend as this waa pattern remains in place ahead of a
large upper low dropping south across the western CONUS. Models were
similar last night with timing of very cold air moving south through
the area on Saturday, however the latest GFS is not bringing the
front through until next Monday and not as strong. In addition the
models are trending to a more closed, retrograding upper low off
the California coast. This is all lowing overall confidence in the
extended part of the forecast period, but do currently do have a
mention of wintry precip by Sunday across northwest Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

IFR to VFR ceilings this afternoon with clouds gradually clearing
from west to east across parts of the area. Some locations,
especially in northern OK could see clearer skies but then more
low clouds moving in with the wrap-around clouds later this
afternoon and tonight. Lowered visibility from BR will also
gradually improve from west to east across parts of the area
although lowered visibility will be possible again overnight into
Tuesday morning in some locations. Patchy drizzle and scattered
rain showers are expected to continue through the afternoon in
parts of northern and central OK. Rain chances are expected to end
late this afternoon/early evening. Winds are expected to shift
towards the W or WNW this afternoon/evening as a Pacific cold
front moves across the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  47  61  34 /  30   0   0   0
Hobart OK         67  41  66  31 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  71  45  69  36 /  20   0   0   0
Gage OK           60  37  58  26 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     58  46  60  30 /  60  20   0   0
Durant OK         63  49  67  40 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25