080
FXUS64 KOUN 161800
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1200 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1157 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

  - Elevated fire danger Monday afternoon western Oklahoma.

  - Near record heat Monday and Tuesday.

  - Strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall likely Wednesday into
    Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

In the wake of the cool front temperatures this afternoon will top
out in the 70s across much of the area. In addition winds will be
lighter today making for a pleasant afternoon with a few passing
clouds.

Otherwise, an ejecting shortwave trough over the southwest CONUS
will continue to move northeast this afternoon inducing lee
cyclogenesis. This will begin to pull the surface boundary that
moved through yesterday back northward and gradually wash out. Winds
will veer to the east across Oklahoma and north Texas this
afternoon before shifting to the southeast/south overnight tonight.

These south winds will begin to pull gulf moisture northward
overnight which may result in development of low clouds and possibly
some patchy drizzle as rather strong waa occurs within the cloud
layer. Most likely area for this would be across southeast Oklahoma.

Main question will be how widespread or really how far west will
these clouds develop. Models show a surface trough moving through
west Texas into western Oklahoma and north Texas overnight. Low
level winds will veer to the southwest behind this boundary, which
should limit westward expansion of stratus deck. Best chances
currently look along and east of I-35. Although warm ground
temperatures should limit fog potential across much of the area,
there may be a short period across the west where higher dewpoints
advect in before the surface trough moves through where fog may
occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1157 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

As we go through the day Monday, upper trough will continue to lift
northeast through the central and northern Plains with associated
surface trough pushing east. This will scour out the moisture
getting rid of any fog, drizzle or low clouds across the area.

However on the flip side of this, the southwest flow will bring in a
much warmer boundary layer airmass. This will again result in
afternoon temperatures making a run at record highs, especially
across the south. With the warmer temps and at least the potential
for lower dewpoints, afternoon humidity levels will also fall.
Models differ significantly with regards to the position of the
trough by Monday afternoon which has impacts on dewpoints and
therefore afternoon humidity. For now will show the driest air
remaining across far western parts of the area, but will need to
monitor trends closely as this will have an impact on area where
elevated fire weather conditions develop Monday afternoon.

Low level jet strengthens Monday night into Tuesday morning, but
with a nearly west to east orientation and the better moisture to
our south and east, any precip looks to remain outside of our area
Monday night.

A weak front will drop south into the area on Tuesday, bringing
slightly cooler air into northern Oklahoma. Meanwhile another day
with possible record heat is expected across southern Oklahoma into
north Texas.

This front stalls Tuesday night near the Red river. Meanwhile, a
lead shortwave traverses north into west Texas in advance of larger
closed low near the Baja. This wave may interact with the stalled
front to produce a few showers and perhaps thunderstorms across the
south late Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1224 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Mid and high clouds will continue to increase/thicken ahead of an
approaching trough to our west. By late Wednesday morning into
the afternoon, boundary-layer instability may become sufficient
for a risk of strong to perhaps severe storms, especially across
south central and southeastern Oklahoma. PW values are also
expected to increase to near record values for mid November. This
will certainly result in efficient rainfall/heavy rainfall.
Currently, it appears areas near and southeast of Interstate 44
have the best chance of heavy rainfall amounts and a subsequent
risk of flooding. Jet dynamics and the potential track of this
system suggest the best chance of heavy rainfall and strong storms
will be late Wednesday into Thursday evening.

It`s possible as the upper low/trough moves into the central Plains,
a majority of the area will see mid-level drying with better rain
and storm chances moving north and east of the area by late Thursday
night into Friday.

This system should push a decent cold front through the area on
Friday which will lower temperatures closer to seasonal averages
by Friday into Friday night. Currently, it appears most of the
day Saturday will be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions expected this TAF period. However, there are some
indications that some low stratus and/or patchy fog could also
move in/develop in parts of the area late tonight into Monday
morning. There is some uncertainty with this so mention of one
and/or the other is currently left out of the TAF. Otherwise, NE
and E winds will gradually shift towards the SE today. Winds will
then shift towards the S and SW Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  55  80  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         50  82  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  55  85  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           48  77  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     52  78  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         62  84  66  85 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...25