278
FXUS63 KPAH 011856
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
156 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect tonight for Carter and
  Wayne counties in the southeast Missouri highlands.

- More widespread frost/freeze conditions are anticipated late
  Sunday night.

- A light rainfall of generally less than a quarter inch is
  expected across most of the region, but portions of western
  Kentucky, mainly over the southern Pennyrile/east of the
  Lakes, could see upward to about a third of an inch.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The 12Z modeling suggests the low remains in the vicinity of the
Bootheel thru 12Z Sunday. Given that proximity, and the inherent
cloudiness associated thereof, the new guidance temps hover our
lows just above freezing for all but our 2 coldest counties,
which currently reside within the boundaries of the existing
Freeze warning. After collaboration with LSX, and with our lows
there (Carter-Wayne counties in SEMO) projected near 30
degrees, we`ll continue the Freeze Warning headline, but drop
the Watch counties further south and east, where temps should
remain above freezing. While consideration for frost was
included in the grid, the expected cloud cover muddies the
headline waters enough for us to refrain from a Frost Advisory
headline for the remaining Freeze Watch counties, effectively
ending the headline altogether.

Other than the frost(/fog) potential from any clearing sky from
our wetted grounds, we`re looking at the rainfall averaging
generally less than 1/4" over most of the area, but do see an
uptick closer to 1/3" over portions of western Kentucky; this
will be most possible mainly east of the Lakes across the
southern Pennyrile, where approaching 1/2" amounts cannot be
completely ruled out. A clap of thunder within/near the low
center itself...the chance of that happening...is low, but not
zero.

The pattern tranforms after the low ultimately pushes on out,
which transitions us from the cool/damp environ to a
warmer/drier one as the new week wears on. This manifests with
our 50s/60s becoming 60s/70s with by/thru the back half of the
coming week, quite pleasant for the starting week of November.
We have one more chilly night with a more expansive frost/freeze
potential Sunday night before the moderating warmup ensues.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A further deterioration in bases is anticipated as a diving low
pressure system increases rain chances early this package.
Expect CIGS to lower thru VFR with MVFR bases in play for CIGS
as light to moderate rains yield similar potential drops in
VSBYS to MVFR. Time/height cross sections indicate cloud cover
holding til at least the planning phase hours of the forecast,
after which, some gradual improvement will begin to be noted in
slow west-to-east fashion across the terminals as the low
slowly fades further and further away to our south and east.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ100-107.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$