692
FXUS63 KPAH 020530
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light wintry mix will impact the region Monday evening into
  Tuesday morning. A winter weather advisory is in effect for
  the entire quad state for snow, sleet, freezing rain and
  freezing drizzle that may lead to hazardous travel conditions
  early tomorrow morning.

- Temperatures will remain below normal through the entire week
  with lows each night falling well into the 20s and even upper
  teens in some locations.

- Dry weather will return for the middle of the week, followed
  by another chance of precipitation Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Radar shows two areas of precip over the CWA, one over Jefferson
and Perry Counties in Illinois where light snow/sleet is being
reported and a smaller more convective looking area over
Perryville to Poplar Bluff where light sleet and snow are also
being reported. These are associated with the leading edge of
stronger low-level warm air advection, but should be relatively
short lived before the broader ascent arrives by 4-6 pm.

Satellite/Obs/Short-term guidance are starting to link in on
WAA related lift overspreading the area late this afternoon
with precip accompanying it, a little faster than originally
thought. Surface temperatures are above freezing over most of
western Kentucky but the wet-bulb temperature is close to
freezing, so the addition of the extra lift/moisture should
result in temperatures falling near freezing after sunset. This
should result in rain changing over to sleet/freezing rain in
the evening over WKY with areas to the northwest a little more
snow focused. The jet-level DCVA ascent moves in by 9-10 pm or
so and merges with the WAA ascent before sweeping all the
precip out of the area along and ahead of a cold front.

I think in the southern Pennyrile if temps get low enough, and
it looks like they will, we could see up to 0.10" of ice
accretion. Over the northwestern part of the CWA the DCVA ascent
should result in 1 to 2 inches of snow. In between I am
concerned that dry slotting will limit precip amounts however
the low level RH is high enough for freezing drizzle regardless.
This coupled with periods of freezing rain, sleet and light
snow would be capable of creating quite a travel mess tonight
and early tomorrow. After collaborating with neighbors this
morning went with a more aggressive CWA-wide winter weather
advisory as freezing drizzle can be significantly impactful to
travel, even in small amounts.

A cold front works through the area in the morning, which may
also spark up some drizzle amid the colder temperatures before
low-layer RH drops by 9 to 10 am. Cold conditions then follow
for the next several days. There are small precip chances again
Thursday night and possibly again Sunday but these are
associated with very modest forcing. The Thursday event is
associated with a polar airmass sweeping a cold front in ahead
of a 1032 mb surface ridge from the Great Lakes which will
result in temperatures around 20 degrees below seasonal norms
for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Light snow will impact all TAF sites for the 1 to 3 hours of the
forecast. It will mainly be IFR snow, but some moderate or even
heavy snow will be possible, especially at KOWB and KPAH. Behind
the snow, MVFR or possibly IFR ceilings will linger over all
sites through much of the day. Some guidance holds onto the
ceilings to the end of the forecast, which seems most likely to
happen at KOWB. Meanwhile KCGI could clear out in the early
afternoon. Confidence in the ceiling forecast is low for the
second half of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ075>078-
     080>086-088>090-092>094.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for ILZ087-091.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ Tuesday for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for KYZ001>006.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for KYZ007>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DRS