086
FXUS63 KPAH 062342
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
542 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures continue tomorrow with highs in the 40s.

- Drizzle and maybe some light rain possible starting early
  tomorrow morning and expanding east during the day. Few
  flurries possible out east tomorrow night.

- Warm up on Tuesday and Wednesday after a brief cold day on
  Monday. Could see 50s on Wednesday!

- Isolated to scattered showers out east possible Wednesday with
  better chances on Thursday.

- Cold end to the week. Highs as low as the 20s and 30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Southerly sfc flow today into tomorrow brings some weak WAA giving
us slightly warmer temperatures in the 40s. Today`s temperatures
have been stubborn across southern and southeastern portions of the
area as a lower level cloud deck has stayed in place. Brought down
highs for tomorrow to the lower to mid 40s due to expected cloud
cover.

A weak sfc low to the west moves east tonight into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Starting very early tomorrow morning soundings
show the potential for some drizzle in the western half of the CWA.
This looks to persist throughout the day and will spread east as
drizzle or possibly even light rain. A weak upper wave moves through
tomorrow night which may provide enough lift and deeper saturation
for drizzle to become light rain or possibly flurries as it gets
colder behind a cold front. No accumulation is expected, so expect
minimal impacts.

A brief chilly day on Monday behind the cold front from Sunday
afternoon then a decent warm up Tuesday and Wednesday with 50s
possible on Wednesday! Breezy south winds Tuesday into Wednesday
with winds shifting to the northwest behind another cold front on
Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers are possible Wednesday with
the front mainly in far eastern areas of the CWA. Some light snow
could mix in Wednesday night behind the front.

A stronger sfc low follows and increases PoPs into Thursday,
expanding further back west but still focused with the highest PoPs
in the east. A mix of rain and snow is possible in SIL, SWIN, and
NW KY Thursday night before tapering off.

High pressure returns to end the week with dry conditions and much
colder temperatures. Highs on Thursday are in the 30s to 40s. Highs
on Friday are in the 30s. Highs on Saturday are in the 20s!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A band of IFR cigs and spotty MVFR vsbys across the southern
two rows of counties in the coverage area is slowly drifting
northward this evening. This progression will cause IFR cigs to
eventually reach northern sites later this evening. Some
clearing in the south at low levels is likely as the back edge
of this band is approaching the KY-TN border (northern extent
varies in models), and lower vsbys are possible when this
happens, even as high clouds are likely to be present. Low
clouds move in from the west during the morning, reasserting
MVFR cigs area-wide, and IFR cigs follow a cold frontal passage
that shifts winds from light to northwesterly at 6-10 kts.
Drizzle is possible throughout the day tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...ATL