434
FXUS63 KPAH 182344
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
544 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected late
  this afternoon through this evening. A few strong to severe
  storms cannot be ruled out mainly over southeast Missouri and
  the Purchase Area of west Kentucky.

- After a dry Wednesday, multiple rounds of showers and
  thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday night through
  Friday night.

- Above normal temperatures will continue into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Watching storms moving through southeast Missouri closely for
signs of rotation, large hail, and downburst winds. The Purchase
Area will be involved in the next hour and hopefully, it won`t
make it to/past the Lakes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A weak surface low over St Louis will attempt to ride east
southeast along I-64 through southern Illinois and southwest
Indiana this evening. A weak warm front is still lingering
over southwest Indiana and adjacent southeast Illinois, but
it should clear to the north of the area in the next hour or
so. As it does, the continual convective development in that
region should subside. Although scattered showers and storms
will be possible near the low track late this afternoon and
evening, surface-based instability will not be sufficient to
support severe storms there.

Farther south where some clearing has developed, surface-based
CAPE could reach close to 1000 J/kg generally south of a line
from Piedmont Missouri through Murray Kentucky. In this region,
severe storms with all severe threats will be possible. The CAMs
have not been unanimously in favor of development, but the HRRR
has been consistently developing at least isolated storms. The
main threat window will be from 3-9 PM, and all convection
should be south or east of the area by midnight.

Enjoy Wednesday which will be dry with slightly above normal
temperatures. Beginning late Wednesday night warm advection will
begin to produce showers and thunderstorms across the Quad
State. This forcing will be in place through Friday when a
compact storm system passes eastward over the region. It is not
certain how far north the warm front will make it, and any
meager threat of severe weather is likely to be along and south
of it. Even there, persistent cloud cover and convection will
make it hard to develop any significant SBCAPE to support severe
weather. At this time, it appears that this storm system will
bring beneficial rain of 1-2" to most of the region. This should
not result in a significant flash flooding threat.

The weekend should be dry with slightly above normal
temperatures, but PoPs return Sunday night into Monday, as
another storm system approaches. Guidance is not in agreement in
the timing of this system, but by mid-week, it is likely to
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Behind it, a
blast of cold air is expected by Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Convection will be a concern this evening at KEVV, KOWB, and
especially KPAH, where hail and gusty winds will be a
possibility. Ceilings are VFR, but IFR and lower ceilings and
possibly visibilities in drizzle are expected to push southward
over the region later this evening and overnight. Those lowered
conditions may linger through the morning before improving
midday into the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS