459
FXUS63 KPAH 071157
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
557 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy drizzle is possible today, with some light showers
  possible tonight from southwest Indiana south into the
  Pennyrile region, which may mix with or change over to
  flurries before ending.

- Temperatures will be well below normal Monday, with a
  significant warm up for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Another cool down can be expected late week, with chances of
  rain and rain mixed with snow (north) Wednesday night through
  Thursday night.

- Dry and very cold conditions will arrive for next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Weak warm air advection across the region today ahead of a weak
cold front will lead to warmer temperatures, mostly cloudy to
cloudy skies and potentially some patchy light drizzle. By late
today and tonight behind the cold front, models show an upper
level wave moving through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
valleys. The model blend generates isolated light showers this
evening from southwest Indiana south through the Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky. As colder air continues to push into
the region, any lingering showers may mix with or change over to
flurries before ending late tonight. Amounts will be very light.

Monday will be much colder, with highs only in the middle 30s
to around 40 degrees. Surface high pressure will move to our
southeast late Monday into Monday night. Winds will quickly
shift back to the south, and we will see a significant warm up
Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs Wednesday back to seasonable
to even a little above seasonable readings. A cold front will be
approaching from the northwest Tuesday into Tuesday night,
resulting in southwest winds increasing to 10-20mph with higher
gusts, shifting to the west then northwest Wednesday and
gradually decreasing behind the front. Colder air will gradually
spread across the area by Wednesday night.

By Wednesday night into Thursday night, a surface low will be
pushing through while our region is under the influence of weak
northwest flow. Precipitation chances will increase Wednesday
night, continue into Thursday, then end from west to east
Thursday night into early Friday. With colder air in place, a
rain and snow mix is expected across the northern half of the
PAH forecast area by late Wednesday night continuing into
Thursday night, with mostly rain across the southern half of the
area. The highest overall chances will be in our eastern
counties. Light snow accumulations are possible in our northern
counties, but being mixed with rain will help cut down any
amounts. The overall liquid amounts are less than a quarter
inch. At this point, timing and amounts still need to be fine
tuned as we get closer. High pressure builds in behind this
system, and we will see dry and very chilly conditions by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 557 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR cigs will become predominantly MVFR by 15z-18z, with just
brief VFR or LIFR then possible. MVFR vsbys will improve to VFR
by 15z. Calm to southeast winds around 5kts will shift to the
northwest to north between 18z-23z and increase to 5-10kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST