Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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633 FXUS63 KPAH 171721 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1121 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - After seasonable temperatures today, above normal readings return tonight through Friday night. - Numerous showers and some thunderstorms will spread across the region tonight, continuing into Tuesday. - Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms will continue Tuesday afternoon and evening mainly east of the Mississippi River. - Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms return Wednesday night through Friday evening, tapering off from west to east late Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A warm front will lift into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys tonight as a surface low moves east from the Central Plains. Isolated showers and storms are possible in southeast Missouri this afternoon. Chances will quickly increase this evening across the entire PAH forecast area, with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday morning. A few storms could become strong enough to produce some small hail. As the low moves through and east of our area, chances will become focused mainly east of the Mississippi River Tuesday afternoon and evening, with just a few lingering showers late Tuesday night in portions of west Kentucky. Dry conditions are expected Wednesday. With the frontal boundary draped across our area Tuesday, we will see a significant temperature gradient from north/northeast to south/southwest. Highs today will be seasonable, with well above normal lows tonight. On Tuesday, high temperatures will range from the 60s in southwest Indiana, to the middle 70s to near 80 degrees in southeast Missouri. Temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Models show another surface low pressure system in the Southern Plains lifting a warm front north into our region Wednesday night into Thursday, lingering the boundary in our area through the end of the week. The surface low will slowly move northeast along the front through Friday with plenty of available low level moisture. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will quickly spread across the region by late Wednesday night, continuing through Friday. As the low moves through and east of our area Friday into Friday night, thunderstorm chances will quickly diminish, with shower chances decreasing from west to east Friday night through Saturday. Forecast rainfall totals tonight through Saturday are generally in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range. The model blend lingers small chances of showers into Sunday, but some models are trying to build high pressure into the area, with potentially dry conditions late Saturday through Sunday with near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Clouds will begin to thicken tonight as a warm front moves north across the region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible, with higher confidence of some elevated convection between 12-16z Tuesday across the northern terminals. Stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail along with IFR/MVFR conditions. By late Tuesday morning, MVFR cigs will arrive from the west at KMVN & KCGI, and will continue to spread east across the rest of the terminals through midday. SE winds shift S tonight between 5-10 kts with isolated gusts near 20 kts Tuesday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RST AVIATION...DW