614
FXUS63 KPAH 071138
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
538 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front passage today will bring chances for showers and
  a few thunderstorms but most areas will likely
  remain dry. Another small chance of rain is possible Saturday
  night into Sunday morning.

- A brief but bitter Arctic airmass will bring the coldest
  temperatures of the season Sunday and Monday. High
  temperatures Monday may struggle to climb into the 40s with
  lows in the 20s.

- Wind chill values in the teens are forecast both Monday and
  Tuesday mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Mid to high level troughing is situated across the northern
plains this morning. An accompanied surface low will track
across the Great Lakes region today dragging a cold front
through the region. While southwest flow will bring dewpoints
into the upper 50s to near 60, CAPE values still appear to be
limited with better potential energy further east. Recent trends
in CAMs continue to suggest the better chances for
thunderstorms and precipitation in general to our east mainly in
LMK and OHX area. The forecast reflects this with PoPs mainly
focused in western Kentucky for late this morning into the
afternoon.

Dry weather occurs behind the front Friday night into Saturday
ahead of another disturbance aloft. This disturbance will bring
a weak sfc low and front through the area Saturday night into
early Sunday with light precipitation possible. A 1040+ mb high
moves in from the northwest Sunday into next week. Strong
northwest winds behind the front will usher in much colder
temperatures with highs on Sunday only reaching the 40s, and
even a bit colder on Monday with highs in the low to mid 40s. A
few locations may not get out of the 30s. Lows Sunday night and
Monday night drop into the 20s and wind chills in the teens
Monday and Tuesday morning. Strong CAA associated with the deep
low developing may offer a few snow showers or flurries across
mainly northeast and eastern portions of the area Sunday into
Sunday night.

Behind the departing upper low, height rises and a return to
southwest flow will bring a warming trend back to the area.
Highs return to the 50s on Tuesday and 60s by Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A cold front will move through the region today bringing a few
isolated to scattered showers. Confidence on any precipitation
impacts the terminals is low but did continue to mention PROB30s
for light rain at EVV and OWB. Winds from the SW to W will
increase to between 6 and 12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds
will decrease this evening and overnight becoming light between
3 and 5 kts. SCT to BKN skies between 4 and 5 kft will
eventually clear out behind the frontal passage this afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$