286
FXUS63 KPAH 271133
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly but mostly sunny weather is forecast for Thanksgiving
  into Friday.

- A potent disturbance will impact the area Saturday. The
  precipitation will begin as snow or a rain/snow mix in the
  morning before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon.

- Light snow accumulations are possible in the Ozark Foothills
  and along and north of Interstate 64 Saturday. Significant
  travel impacts are unlikely, but isolated slushy spots on the
  roads cannot be ruled out and should be handled with caution.

- Chilly, below normal temperatures will continue into early
  next week. Another system may bring additional chances for
  wintry precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, but forecast
  confidence is very low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

For Thanksgiving Day, a broad trough is located over the eastern
half of the country with a ridge in the west. Low pressure has
moved off into Quebec from the Great Lakes. A decent H5
thickness gradient will keep winds around 10 mph today out of
the northwest, limiting highs to the 40s despite mostly sunny
skies. High pressure moves through on tonight through Friday
resulting in calm winds and lows in the lower half of the 20s
tonight compared to lows near freezing this morning.

Low pressure plunges into the Central Plains from Alberta,
bringing the next chance of precipitation to the area late Friday
night through Sunday morning. Lingering cold air will allow for
portions of the Quad State to have snow at the start of this
event as soundings continue to suggest wet-bulbing. S/SSE flow
at the surface and S/SSW flow at 850mb will bring in warmer air,
transitioning any snow areas to rain later in the day Saturday.
As a result, the best potential for wintry impacts will be near
sunrise through midday from the Ozark Foothills to Mount Vernon,
IL, and across I-64 into SW Indiana with an inch or two of snow
possible. With temperatures near freezing and warm surface
temperatures, snow ratios will be very limited, around 5:1,
resulting in a slushy snow and is why the forecast sits on the
lower end of model guidance closer to the ECMWF ensemble, while
the Canadian ensemble is the snowiest. Caution is advised on
slushy roads and sidewalks, as these conditions can be
hazardous. A transition to rain will clear up these hazards for
Saturday afternoon. Total liquid equivalent QPF is projected to
be around half an inch to an inch with the higher totals in the
west and lower totals in the east. A cold frontal passage
Saturday night will bring a potential transition back from rain
to snow but precipitation chances drop off along with it,
leaving only a trace of snow possible Saturday night.

Another area of high pressure moves through late Sunday and
early Monday bringing dry conditions. Models are divided on an
early week system`s strength and timing, but agree on some of
the elements including an upper-level disturbance tracking from
the Great Basin through the Central Plains and Gulf moisture
pulling northward into the Deep South. A system forms bringing a
chance of precipitation Monday night into Tuesday morning. The
GEFS has this system forming earlier and closer to the Quad
State while the other ensembles delay it some or position it
further south. A track further south heightens the potential for
wintry precipitation but could keep portions of the Quad State
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

High end MVFR cigs are pushing towards the Interstate 64
corridor of Southern Illinois and the Evansville Tri-State this
morning. NW/WNW winds continue today at around 10 kts gusting to
15-18 kts. Winds become calm tonight with clear skies.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL