258
FXUS63 KPAH 161127
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
527 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A return to seasonable high temperatures can be expected today
  and Monday, with slightly below normal temperatures tonight.

- Scattered to numerous showers will return into Monday night
  and Tuesday night, with lingering chances of some showers and
  a few storms into late Wednesday.

- A few stronger storms could produce some small hail Monday
  night.

- Numerous showers, some with heavier rain, return for Wednesday
  night through Friday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 527 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Cooler air is filtering into the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
valleys, behind a cold front that is pushing on through southern
portions of west Kentucky. High temperatures will return to
more seasonable readings today into Monday. Clear skies and
light to calm winds tonight will allow temperatures to fall to a
few degrees below normal.

Models continue to lift a warm front into the PAH forecast area
Monday night. As low pressure moves along the front, shower
chances quickly increase Monday night with numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms by late Monday night into Tuesday night.
Stronger storms Monday night could produce small hail due to
colder air aloft. Models have been consistent keeping the
frontal boundary draped from west to east across our region
through the week. The boundary will remain the focus for on and
off showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday
evening.

By Wednesday night, a much deeper surface low will move along
the front, accompanied by a deep upper level trof. This will
bring a resurgence in widespread showers, along with some
thunderstorms late Wednesday night through the end of the week.
Run to run rainfall amounts continue to vary, and confidence in
the placement and timing of heaviest rainfall is still not very
high. However, confidence in widespread totals of at least 1.5
to 3 inches across the PAH forecast area is increasing.

As the low moves to our north and northeast Friday into Friday
night, it will drag as associated cold front through our
region. This will allow showers to taper off from west to east,
with just low end chances persisting into Saturday. After above
normal temperatures through the work week, cooler conditions
will follow the cold front. Readings will drop back down to
seasonable readings.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with just a few
high clouds and no vsby restrictions. Winds will be from the
north to northwest at 4-10kts, become light to calm after 23z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...RST