612
FXUS63 KPAH 151815
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1215 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts between 20 to 30 mph this afternoon will begin to
  diminish in the evening. An isolated sprinkle or shower
  cannot be ruled out mainly across the far east through the
  first half of tonight.

- Temperatures will be more seasonable on Sunday to end the
  weekend, followed by another period of above normal
  temperatures Tuesday through Friday.

- Daily shower and isolated thunderstorm chances return to the
  forecast late Monday into Monday night and continue through
  the entire week. Total rainfall between 1 to 3 inches is
  expected by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Gradient winds will prevail this afternoon ahead of a sfc cold front
that will transverse across the FA tonight. While the front lacks
moisture, model soundings on a few of the CAMs including the ARW and
3km NAM are hinting at subtle moisture to squeeze out an
isolated sprinkle or light rain shower across the far east.
Added 15 to 20 percent PoPs to account for this as any pcpn
would be brief and not amount to much. Behind the front,
temperatures turn more seasonable on Sunday as a ridge of high
pressure builds into the FA by nightfall, supporting more
tranquil conditions. Did run with the NBM 10th percentile for
afternoon dewpoints as mixing in the boundary layer will tap
into a deep dry layer around 900-850 mb. This translates to min
RH values around 20-25%. In fact, some of the CAMs are even more
robust with mixing dewpoints down well into teens.

By Monday, 500 mb energy will eject across the Plains,
eventually lifting a sfc warm front north late Monday into
Monday night with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The instability is modest at best, but cold air aloft will
cause mid-level lapse rates to steepen to 7.0 C/km with sfc-6km
shear of 40-45 kts. A few stronger will be possible with small
hail being the main concern. The aforementioned frontal
boundary remains in the vicinity Tuesday into Wednesday with
pcpn chances lingering. The EPS is more robust with instability
on Wednesday compared to the GEFS, but it is contingent on the
placement of the boundary. Temperatures trend back above normal as
the flow aloft turns more zonal.

An amplified subtropical jet combined with a longwave trough will
cause sfc low pressure to develop Wednesday night into Thursday over
the Plains, bringing a period of heavier rainfall. There is still
some uncertainty on the timing, but the GEFS and EPS both support
QPF amounts between 1 to 3 inches with a high probability of
receiving at least 1 inch. While the deterministic runs continue to
remain highly variable with QPF, the ensembles have remained more
persistent with the potential for heavy rainfall with the NBM being
the most robust. Due to the long duration, flooding is not much of a
concern with only 2 to 5 year return intervals for PWATs between
1.25 to 1.50 inches. It will likely not be until next weekend
when drier weather returns along with more seasonable
temperatures as a cold front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Breezy conditions will prevail this afternoon with gusts
between 20-25 kts out of the southwest. An axis of MVFR cigs is
building NE across the Missouri Bootheel, and the outer extent
may clip KPAH/KCGI over the next few hours. Although confidence
is low, cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR cigs with a 20%
probability. Otherwise, FEW-SCT mid to high level clouds are
progged across the rest of the terminals as a cold front
approaches this evening. An isolated light rain shower cannot be
ruled out at KEVV & KOWB, but the probability is less than 30%
to include TAF mention.

Winds tonight will shift west to northwest with fropa between
5-10 kts into the day Sunday. Skies will turn mostly clear with
only a few high level clouds mainly across the north.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW