633
FXUS63 KPAH 171721
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1121 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After seasonable temperatures today, above normal readings
  return tonight through Friday night.

- Numerous showers and some thunderstorms will spread across
  the region tonight, continuing into Tuesday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms will
  continue Tuesday afternoon and evening mainly east of the
  Mississippi River.

- Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms return Wednesday
  night through Friday evening, tapering off from west to east
  late Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

A warm front will lift into the middle Mississippi and lower
Ohio valleys tonight as a surface low moves east from the
Central Plains. Isolated showers and storms are possible in
southeast Missouri this afternoon. Chances will quickly increase
this evening across the entire PAH forecast area, with numerous
showers and scattered thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday
morning. A few storms could become strong enough to produce some
small hail. As the low moves through and east of our area,
chances will become focused mainly east of the Mississippi River
Tuesday afternoon and evening, with just a few lingering
showers late Tuesday night in portions of west Kentucky. Dry
conditions are expected Wednesday.

With the frontal boundary draped across our area Tuesday, we
will see a significant temperature gradient from
north/northeast to south/southwest. Highs today will be
seasonable, with well above normal lows tonight. On Tuesday,
high temperatures will range from the 60s in southwest Indiana,
to the middle 70s to near 80 degrees in southeast Missouri.
Temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday will be 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

Models show another surface low pressure system in the Southern
Plains lifting a warm front north into our region Wednesday
night into Thursday, lingering the boundary in our area through
the end of the week. The surface low will slowly move northeast
along the front through Friday with plenty of available low
level moisture. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will quickly
spread across the region by late Wednesday night, continuing
through Friday. As the low moves through and east of our area
Friday into Friday night, thunderstorm chances will quickly
diminish, with shower chances decreasing from west to east
Friday night through Saturday. Forecast rainfall totals tonight
through Saturday are generally in the 1.5 to 2.5 inch range.
The model blend lingers small chances of showers into Sunday,
but some models are trying to build high pressure into the area,
with potentially dry conditions late Saturday through Sunday
with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Clouds will begin to thicken tonight as a warm front moves north
across the region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be possible, with higher confidence of some elevated
convection between 12-16z Tuesday across the northern
terminals. Stronger storms will be capable of producing small
hail along with IFR/MVFR conditions. By late Tuesday morning,
MVFR cigs will arrive from the west at KMVN & KCGI, and will
continue to spread east across the rest of the terminals through
midday. SE winds shift S tonight between 5-10 kts with isolated
gusts near 20 kts Tuesday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...DW