031
FXUS63 KPAH 022257
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
557 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible throughout
  the Quad State through sunset, and then mainly over the
  Evansville Tri State late tonight into Friday morning.

- Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday and then
  trend toward normal, if not a few degrees below Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- A chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast Monday
  through early Wednesday. Light rainfall amounts up to a half
  inch are possible, mainly Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

A weakness in the upper ridge has drifted over the Quad State
today, which is aiding in the development very isolated showers
across portions of the Quad State this afternoon. Temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints holding in the 60s in most
locations has resulted in 1000-1500J/kg of SBCAPE. Low-level
lapse rates are over 8K/km and DCAPE values are 800-1200J/kg, so
if a storm does develop, some very localized strong winds will
be possible. The activity should dissipate around sunset, if not
before.

Much of the 00Z guidance develops widely scattered convection
mainly over the Evansville Tri State overnight into early Friday
morning. Actually have a 30% PoP up there, but with it being
overnight, this should be strictly a lightning and brief heavy
downpour concern.

High pressure at the surface and a loft will continue to ridge
westward through Quad State Friday through the weekend. That
will keep high temperatures above normal in the mid to upper
80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

As we head into next week some Gulf moisture will slip northward
into west Kentucky which could lead to some scattered
convection Monday. To the northwest, fairly strong
southwesterly flow will extend from the Rockies through the
Great Lakes. As a trough slips eastward into the Great Lakes
Tuesday, a cold front will move into and eventually through the
Quad State by 12Z Wednesday.

The enhanced low-level moisture will lead to a decent chance of
showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the cold front
Tuesday and Tuesday night. PoPs are still at lower chance
levels, but could increase as confidence in timing increases.
QPF amounts are generally a half inch or less with the highest
amounts in the Tri State Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Temperatures will eventually fall to normal levels Wednesday and
possibly below normal Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Isolated showers are diminishing in intensity/coverage as the
sun sets. VFR conditions are forecast for the remainder of the
TAF period with a small risk of ground fog.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...JGG