549
FXUS63 KPAH 301117
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
517 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chilly weather continues into next week, and confidence is
  growing that another system will bring a potentially impactful
  wintry mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain to most or
  all of the area Monday night through Tuesday morning.

- Dry and chilly weather is forecast for the middle of next
  week, with a chance of precipitation returning to the
  forecast on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 517 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A cold frontal passage has worked through all but the Kentucky
Pennyrile region of the Quad State with lingering light rain
expected to end soon in the east. Breezy winds gusting to 20-30
mph shift to the W/WNW following the front. Winds and sky cover
should prevent early morning fog formation as visibility
improves following cessation of rain. Winds gradually decrease
through the day today and become more northerly as high
pressure moves closer from the northwest and the Great Lakes low
progresses into Canada.

The main focus of the forecast is the early week storm. On the
synoptic scale a trough develops over the Rockies Sunday night.
An upper-level disturbance moves into the Central Plains with
somewhat limited surface development. On Monday, low pressure
develops in the Gulf near Texas, tracking towards the Deep
South with moisture pulling northeastward. Surface high
pressure will bring northwesterly flow to the Quad State Monday
night and, following some lighter precipitation Monday
afternoon, some models significantly fill in the gap between the
Plains and Gulf systems Monday night.

With cold air leading into this event, much of the Quad State
will see mainly frozen precipitation with the exception being
southeastern portions of Western Kentucky. The NAM and GFS have
been steady in showing mixing of sleet and freezing rain,
mainly along a WSW/ENE line that includes the Ohio River, skewed
a bit to the Kentucky side. The Canadian is the coldest of the
three, while the European ensemble brings little in the way of
development with the Plains system and keeps QPF meager. QPF
nudged slightly lower in the forecast relative to the prior run,
less than a quarter inch in SEMO/SIL, around a quarter inch for
SWIN, and a quarter to half inch in WKY. The NBM, which was
much too high on snow last night (due to a fusion of
cooler/drier and warmer/wetter solutions), is continuing its
declining trend from today`s forecast package and now has half
an inch of snow/sleet or less for Western Kentucky and 0.5-1.5
inches to the north. Greater incorporation of sleet/freezing
rain is now the case, as forecast sounding profiles continue to
support a melting layer, though some times/models suggest
limited cloud ice which would skip over the sleet option and be
more freezing drizzle based. Ice accumulations aren`t
particularly high, peaking around 0.05 inches in a line
stretching from around Poplar Bluff, MO to Owensboro, KY.
Eastern areas see some lingering wintry precipitation Tuesday
morning. Impacts are expected late Monday through Tuesday
morning as any of snow/sleet/freezing rain options will cause
issues and it takes very little ice to make a mess of things on
roads/sidewalks.

Any snow cover that comes from this system will help keep
temperatures well below normal midweek as lows Tuesday night
drop to around 20. High pressure moves through making Wednesday
and Thursday dry. A late week system involving a southern stream
system and possibly another upper-level disturbance in the
Plains brings late week precipitation changes. This appears to
lean a bit more towards rain but may start as a wintry mix.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Breezy northwesterly winds today will gradually decrease later
on as high pressure approaches. MVFR cigs over the Quad State
have slowly risen to low end VFR and coverage is beginning to
thin some. Cloud cover will be most prominent through the day in
the north, with a resurgence of MVFR cigs tonight as winds
become light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL