815
FXUS63 KPAH 221133
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This weekend will be dry with above normal temperatures.

- More rain will arrive Monday in southeast Missouri and then
  shift eastward through the rest of the Quad State Monday night
  into Tuesday.

- Temperatures will trend below normal by Thanksgiving and
  remain there through next Saturday. Dry conditions are
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

A few light showers remain over the southern Pennyrile early
this morning, as a storm system lingers in the region. The
showers should move out of the entire region by 12Z. A weak
cold front has pushed into west Kentucky and should also clear
the entire region by daybreak. The front will clear the the
region by daybreak. The main impact from the front will be solid
low overcast conditions that have overspread the region behind
it. Those clouds will linger over the region for much of the day
today, and that will hold temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s
from north to south across the Quad State.

Clearing is expected by this evening, and with light winds and
wet ground, fog development is a decent bet tonight. Have added
some patchy fog to the forecast for now, but it will not be
surprising if there is some more widespread dense fog. Of course
we have to get rid of the clouds first, so until that happens
or becomes very obvious, it will be difficult to add more
significant fog to the forecast.

Sunday will be the choice day of the weekend, with lots of
sunshine and highs in the low to mid 60s over most of the area.

Our next storm system will eject out of the desert southwest and
into the central Plains Sunday night into early Monday. The
storm system will be weakening as it approaches the Quad State
due to a stronger system pushing through the northern Rockies.
Some rain will attempt to spread northeast across southeast
Missouri during the day, but guidance is not in agreement in how
quickly this may happen. There is some potential for rain to
hang out over southeast Missouri through much of the day and
then push more quickly eastward across the region.

The NBM QPF has around an inch in the western four counties in
southeast Missouri, with lesser amounts to the east, and
especially to the north. The I-64 corridor may not see much more
than the quarter to a third of an inch. Instability will be
hard to find, so there is no thunder currently forecast. If
there were to be any instability/thunderstorms, it would be over
southeast Missouri Monday evening. The rain with this system
should push east of the Quad State early Tuesday.

The system coming out of the northern Rockies will deepen as it
reaches the Great Lakes by the end of the day Wednesday. This
will result in larger-scale troughing over most of the country
east of the Rockies. It will usher in Canadian surface high
pressure and that will lead to a significant cool down heading
toward Thanksgiving. Wednesday will be near normal, then
Thursday through next Saturday will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. Thankfully, it will be dry through Saturday, but another
storm system could bring more precipitation to the region for
Sunday of the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

IFR ceilings cover the entire region to begin the period, with
LIFR at KOWB and low MVFR at KCGI. They will gradually lift and
eventually clear from the north this afternoon. Although
guidance is not indicating so, with clear skies, light winds,
and a wet ground across the region tonight, fog development
would seem like a decent bet. For now, it is only mentioned at
KMVN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS