504
FXUS63 KPAH 242216
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
416 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to moderate rain will move into the region tonight
  through Tuesday morning. A few rumbles of thunder are
  possible.

- Dry and seasonably chilly weather is in store Wednesday
  through Friday, including lots of sunshine for Thanksgiving.

- Unsettled weather returns late Friday night and will continue
  through next week. Some of the precipitation may begin as
  light snow or sleet Friday night before changing to rain later
  Saturday morning.

- Locally heavy rainfall of 1.5 to 3.0 inches is forecast
  Saturday through early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 415 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

As a shortwave trough moves through the Midwest, light to
moderate rain will develop tonight across the Ozark Plateau and
spread from SW to NE across the region. This activity will taper
from west to east Tuesday morning as the shortwave forcing exit
the region and a surface low/trailing cold front passes.
Rainfall totals by Tuesday afternoon will range from 0.25 to
0.75" with locally higher amounts up to 1" possible in the
Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky.

Following the passage of the cold front, dry and seasonably
cool weather is forecast Wednesday through Friday. As chilly
Canadian high pressure settles into the Midwest, temperatures
will be 5-10 degrees below normal, but plentiful sunshine should
take the edge off the chill. High temperatures will reach the
middle to upper 40s on Wednesday and the the lower to middle 40s
on Thanksgiving and Friday. Overnight lows will fall into the
20s.

A return to unsettled weather will begin Friday night and
continue into early next week. The H5 troughing over the eastern
CONUS will yield to an active zonal pattern, and a parade of
systems will bring relatively high (40-60%) daily precipitation
chances Saturday through next Monday and beyond. The initial
round of precipitation will arrive late Friday night as
precipitation breaks out along a warm front which will move from
south to north across the area.

There may be enough cold air from the retreating Canadian
high pressure to allow for the initial wave of precipitation to
begin as light snow or sleet before changing to all rain by
daybreak Saturday. Confidence is very low because surface
temperatures will be marginal to support frozen precipitation,
even along our northernmost counties north of I-64. As it
stands, this forecast package does include only a few tenths of
snow accumulation Friday night into Saturday, which should keep
travel impacts very low or nil.

The zonal flow pattern will bring a return of near normal
temperatures for the rest of this weekend into early next week.
Ensemble guidance shows precipitable water values will rise to
about 200-300% of average values, resulting in elevated rain
rate potential. Latest QPF is quite soggy during this time, with
widespread 1.5 to 3.0" expected through Monday. Given the
antecedent dry conditions, flooding should not be a major
concern, but it will be important to watch QPF trends in the
forecast in case it continues to climb.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Expect flight conditions to deteriorate again overnight as rains
set in with the approach and passage of a weak weather system.
Accompanying will be restricted CIGS (IFR) and VSBYS (MVFR) that
will become predominant, with occasional/temporary moments of
further deterioration thru restricted cats. The system`s
passage/departure by late tmrw will reverse the trend, though
time/height cross sections suggest improvement will be
slow/gradual, maintaining restricted bases into and perhaps
lingering thru a good part of the the planning phase hours of
the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$