085
FXUS63 KPAH 192152
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
352 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rainfall is expected (70-90% chance) starting late
  tonight through Friday. Most locations will between 1 and 2
  inches of rain with the greatest totals across southeast
  Missouri into western Kentucky.

- Temperatures will trend near to slightly above normal through
  early next week before much colder temperatures arrive around
  or just after Thanksgiving.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 347 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Visible satellite imagery continues to show a stubborn stratus deck
that is very slowly eroding along the southern and western edge. It
isn`t looking like these will dissipate before sunset, which will
likely keep cloud cover in place through the night. Temperatures are
largely in the low to mid 50s.

A nearly stationary front is positioned south of the area this
evening and is expected to drift northward as a warm front tonight
into Thursday as low pressure ejects into the Plains. The
combination of deeper moisture and isentropic upglide on WAA, will
lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms toward
sunrise Thursday. The warm front is expected to become nearly
stationary across the area Thursday night into Friday morning before
becoming ill-defined late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. All
this just means it will be active through Friday with widespread
showers and some thunderstorms. There is a small ribbon of
instability that may work into SEMO and western KY, but current
thinking is the best instability remains south of the CWA. It looks
very similar into Friday as well. There will be plenty of shear, but
the lack of instability and poor mid-level lapse rates should limit
severe potential. Precipitable water values are forecast to be
around 1 to 2 inches, which is generally the amounts forecast across
the CWA, heaviest over SEMO/western KY.

Drier air and weak high pressure will arrive over the weekend,
giving a brief break in the precipitation chances.

The next chance of widespread showers and storms will arrive Monday
into Tuesday as a trough digs in across the Plains and a surface low
organizes over Missouri. Still some placement/timing issues, but
that does appear to be the next good chance of precipitation. It
doesn`t look like a severe threat at this time, but it is worth
keeping an eye on with continued low/medium confidence in
timing/placement of the system.

It is worth noting that we are still seeing a strong signal for much
colder air to work its way south across most of the central and
eastern CONUS toward Thanksgiving and into Thanksgiving weekend.
That will like result in much below normal temperatures across the
entire area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

It looks like a persistence strategy forecast is the way to go,
given the trends toward persistent low cloud cover. Time/height
cross sections and sounding data support continued restricted
bases, although the models continually want to hint at a
scattering of the lower bases for a higher CIG...we`ll refrain
from that this writing and amend as necessary if it comes to
fruition. If it does, it will be short-lived, as a warm front
lifts north later tonight into tmrw. It will reinforce MVFR/IFR
bases and offer increasing rain chances with time. Fog may
restrict vsbys tonight while rain chances offer vsby restrictions
tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$