619
FXUS63 KPAH 111101
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
501 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance of light snow tonight in southwest Indiana,
  northwest Kentucky, and portions of southern Illinois north of
  Route 13. Some accumulating snow is expected across parts of
  southwest Indiana.

- Significantly colder air will spread across the region this
  weekend with the coldest temperatures Saturday night into
  Sunday. Dangerously cold wind chill values and impactful air
  temperatures are reasonably likely.

- Gradual warming begins early next week, with a chance of rain
  Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Main near-term forecast focus is on the Alberta Clipper moving
in from the northwest late this afternoon and tonight. The model
trend with this system is further southwest and QPF/snowfall
forecasts have adjusted accordingly. There is a broad
WAA and associated isentropic lift field to the south of the
main thermal gradient over most of our CWA with improving
frontogenetic forcing sneaking towards our southwest Indiana
counties. While lift is pretty good the lowest 100mb or so of
the atmosphere is quite dry and precip onset may take a little
while to get going, although marginal temperatures will likely
be aided by a little wet-bulb cooling. Ground temperatures are
relatively warm, but not as warm as they were during the light
snow a week or so ago.

With the snowfall axis shifting slightly southwest after
collaboration with regional neighbors will add Pike Co.,IN to a
winter weather advisory for snow accumulations although it may
end up just southwest of the more appreciable accums.

The next and probably more impactful element is the exceptional,
quick-hitter cold snap coming for the weekend. A cold front
(being pushed by a 1045ish mb high pressure system being driven
out of the front range of the Canadian Rockies) slams into the
area Saturday during the day. The airmass from where this system
is coming from is sitting at a balmy -45 degrees F this morning.
If the front comes through a little quicker than modeled, as
these systems tend to do, highs will struggle to break above
freezing Saturday. Saturday night and Sunday night look to
produce single digit lows, while Sunday maximums range from 15
to 25 degrees. Wind chill values Saturday night look to fall
below zero. An extreme cold watch was considered but its still
just a little too early. However, breaking warning criteria
(-10 to -15) seems possible, and advisory criteria (roughly 0)
seems very likely over a good chunk of the area. The larger-
scale pattern does appear favorable for at least a few ripples
of lift that may lead to light snowfall and possible
accumulations, particularly in the northeastern quarter of the
area.

The ridge driving all of this does appear to succeed in
dethroning the seemingly semi-permanent trough over the upper
Great Lakes and Hudson Bay region and we get into a more rippled
zonal flow that results in overall temperature moderation with
temperatures returning to at or a little above normal into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

High MVFR ceiling will probably stick around another few hours
over OWB/EVV and vicinity. Mid-morning should see improving
conditions as we fall more under the influence of an approaching
clipper system from the northwest. Snow showers from this
system will probably be a factor at MVN/EVV/OWB through the
early evening to the overnight with lower ceilings and
visibilities although the heavier snow is currently still
forecast to track to the northeast of the region. Ceilings
closer to the actual low further southwest still look to remain
fairly good. There is some risk for sfc-2000 ft wind shear
tonight at PAH/CGI/MWA and vicinity but the chance is too low
for inclusion in this TAF package.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Friday for INZ082.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG