854
FXUS63 KPAH 121721
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1121 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A major warmup will bring a return of above normal
  temperatures for the rest of the week.

- High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will approach record
  values.

- Other than small rain chances Friday morning and Saturday
  night, the next chance of widespread showers and possibly a
  few thunderstorms is forecast Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

As the recent shot of Arctic air departs the region to the east,
the region will come under northwesterly H5 baroclinic flow. H5
heights will rise gradually through the rest of the week.
Model ensemble guidance shows temperatures at 850 mb will warm
from 5-8C today to 12-16C by Saturday, bringing a significant
warmup. High temperatures today and Thursday will reach the
lower to middle 60s. As the baroclinic flow transitions to
ridging, high temperatures Friday and Saturday will approach
record values, in the lower to middle 70s. A couple of weak
shortwave trough will bring small chances of light rain Friday
morning and again Saturday night.

Temperatures will begin to cool back towards normal values
Sunday as a transition to a more active zonal flow pattern
begins. A few separate systems look to bring precipitation
chances to the region next week. The next chance of widespread
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will arrive Monday and
continue into Tuesday. Unsettled weather may continue beyond the
forecast period through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Some vsby decreases are possible tonight, mainly in Western
Kentucky. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period with westerly winds today becoming calm overnight. High
clouds move in during the day tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...ATL