805
FXUS63 KPAH 240823
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
223 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread dense fog will continue well past daybreak this
  morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM.

- Rain is expected today through Tuesday with amounts of a
  quarter inch to around one inch expected. The heaviest rains
  are expected mainly over west Kentucky overnight where a few
  rumbles of thunder will be possible.

- Dry and cool conditions are expected Wednesday through
  Friday.

- It will get wet throughout the area at some point Friday night
  through Sunday, but the specific timing is uncertain at this
  time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Widespread dense fog has developed roughly over the southern
half to two thirds of the Quad State early this morning, and it
should gradually spread northward over most of the region by
daybreak. There is little reason to expect the fog to improve
significantly until 15Z. The Dense Fog Advisory for the entire
area looks good with an expiration time of 16Z. Will reissue it
in a little while just to refresh the timing wording.

Little has changed with the rain event for later today through
Tuesday. There may be an initial surge of light showers moving
through southeast Missouri in the late morning, and that could
continue east of the river midday into the early afternoon.
However, the more solid rainfall will overspread southeast
Missouri in the afternoon and could overspread much of the
region by 00Z. Much of the rain will fall overnight and then it
will gradually come to an end from west to east on Tuesday.

QPF over much of the region will average a quarter to a half
inch, but there will be a zone that will get an inch or possibly
even a bit more. That zone will most likely extend from the
Bootheel northeast toward Henderson and Owensboro, or along and
just southeast of the Ohio River. There will be just enough
elevated instability to support a few lightning strikes from the
Bootheel in the late evening through much of west Kentucky
overnight.

A larger storm system will pass eastward through the upper
Mississippi Valley Tuesday night and into the Great Lakes
Wednesday. The associated cold front will pass through the Quad
State Tuesday night and Canadian surface high pressure will
build over the region through Friday. This will lead to
temperatures trending down to around 10 degrees below normal
for Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

The forecast for the second half of the holiday weekend appears
to be active, but there is considerable uncertainty in timing
details. The flow aloft will transition quickly to troughing in
the west with zonal to southwest flow east of the Rockies. This
rapid transition with an initially cool airmass in place over
the lower Ohio Valley should lead to considerable warm advection
and rain or convection somewhere over the Plains and
Mississippi Valley.

The latest guidance, especially the 00Z GFS-based guidance has
shifted earlier and has substantial precipitation spreading
southeast across the Quad State Friday night into Saturday
morning. The NBM has temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s,
so it is generating accumulating snow. If this were to happen,
temperatures at the surface would likely stay above freezing,
which may keep the snow away and at the least would not allow it
to accumulate. Anyway, there remains considerable spread in the
ensembles as to the likely times for precipitation over our
region. Regardless there is certainly some potential for heavy
rain, with the NBM indicating 1.5-2.5" of rainfall from Friday
night through next Monday. Although this forecast does not have
thunder in it, storms could become possible at some point. Stay
tuned for clarity in future forecasts for next weekend and early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 948 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

LIFR ceilings/visibilities will be the main issues this TAF
issuance with fog and low stratus settling in at each TAF site
through at least Monday morning. Ceilings will continue to drop
down to 200ft overnight and visibilities around or lower than
1/4. Late morning into early afternoon will see some improvement
in visibility as rain moves into the western sites and winds
increase across the area. Still expecting flight restrictions
with ceilings staying in the IFR range during the afternoon into
the evening hours Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST /11 AM EST/ this morning
     for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...KC