Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 010531 AAB

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1131 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

Issued at 1131 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

Radar mosaic shows light shower activity in the warm sector out
ahead of a developing/approaching cold front, which will make
passage tonight. Satellite reveals much of Quad State Region
still plagued with low clouds/fog and morning sounding data shows
with the inversion 3-4K feet aloft, we likely won`t be mixing out as
showers continue to advect/overtake the area heading into tonight.

Late tonight, cold front incoming will be making passage and
pushing bulk moisture to the east tmrw morning. We`ll linger a pop
in our eastern counties for early tmrw. Temporary migration of
surface high into area will be subdued by primary cyclone at
surface and aloft making its eastward translation later tmrw night
and Wednesday. This will wrap some cooler air into the region and
maybe some clouds across esp the northern counties...but pcpn
looks to stay just outside the CWA (to the north).

Expect two upcoming coolish days with reinforcing cold air
advection on Wed making for highs in the 40s most spots. Lows
will gradually cool to around 30 over the course of the next two
to three nights.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 207 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

The med range models/ensemble means are in decent agreement
regarding the extended forecast. By Thu, the PAH forecast area will
be under increasing ridging aloft, and under a sfc ridge axis. This
will result in dry clear weather through the weekend, with near
seasonable temps and a slight warming trend through the weekend.

By late in the week, the models show a split flow mid/upper level
pattern will yield a shrtwv trof digging through the srn Plains.
This feature, and its sfc reflection, should approach our region
from the sw by Mon, with the center eventually passing just to our
nw. There was enough model agreement in the initialization blend
attm to warrant mid-chance PoPs across the entire region after
sunrise Mon. There did not appear to be enough instability for
thunder to occur. The system will be of Pacific origin, so no arctic
blast will be seen behind it.


Issued at 1131 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015

The approach and passage of a frontal system combined with deep
moisture will continue to produce LIFR/IFR cigs and/or vsbys and
periods of light rain or drizzle through most of the period.
Expect to see some clearing from the west in the wake of the front
during the last half of the period. Southwest winds AOB 10 knots
will veer around to the northwest in the wake of the front, then
become variable AOB 5 knots in the last half of the period.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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