Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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162
FXUS63 KPAH 280842
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
342 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High pressure will continue to push south through the northern
Plans and upper Midwest today. Models continue to indicate a weak
secondary impulse dropping se into the forecast area today ahead
of this next push of high pressure. Still believe this impulse
will be quite moisture starved and should have little impact other
than an increase in mid clouds and perhaps an isolated shower or
few light sprinkles west of the MS River this afternoon.

The brunt of the change to cooler and less humid conditions will
be felt on later tonight/Wednesday/Wednesday night as the high
pressure to our north slips southeast into the mid MS River and OH
Valley regions. Max temps Wed will likely stay in the upper
70s/lower portion of the 80s despite nearly full sunshine. Will
probably see mid 50s to near 60 for lows Wed night.

The high will begin to move off to the east of the forecast area
Thu/Thu night, allowing winds to turn more southerly and temps to
begin a gradual warming trend. Models bring another cold front
southeast into the Missouri River Valley later Thursday night, and
may be close enough to spark a few showers or thunderstorms,
mainly in se MO/sw IL, toward sunrise Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Precipitation will begin to develop on Friday and move into our CWA
from west to east, as upper level energy in the northwest flow aloft
along with a weak sfc front, interacts with increasing levels of
moisture. The precipitation will continue into Friday night as well.

On Saturday into Saturday night, that aforementioned boundary
becomes hard to find, but whatever is left of it, becomes quasi-
stationary just south of the area. This combined with flow aloft
becoming nearly zonal with a series of upper level disturbances
moving through and plenty of moisture, models bring several waves of
precipitation across our area in those two periods.

When it comes the latter part of the weekend, confidence becomes
much less, as models diverge, although Sunday is looking a bit more
dry with the latest data. However, Sunday night into Monday, the
latest GFS brings another upper level wave into the region which
will mean more showers and storms. The ECMWF tends to paint a drier
picture, even though it shows the same upper level wave, but slides
any thunderstorm activity mainly to our south (southern
sections of the CWA are targeted though) Sunday night into
Monday.

As far as temperatures and humidity...we are looking at seasonable
humidity values as dewpoints stay in the semi uncomfortable, but not
oppressive range (upper 60s to around 70). Highs will remain in the
80s which isn`t too bad for early July, with night time lows in the
upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

The timing of these individual waves will not be resolved this far
out, so those with plans this weekend should not expect a total
rainout, but will likely have to content with periods of showers and
storms. Stay tuned as the forecast continues to become fine tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High pressure over the northern Midwest will continue to sink
slowly sough toward the region through the TAF period, bringing
light northerlies and generally clear conditions. Areas of fog
early today should generally stay just sough of our TAF sites,
generally over TN.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...GM



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