Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KPAH 311130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
18Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE KCGI/KPAH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.