Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 300647
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
147 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE WET PATTERN SET UP IS ONGOING/DEVELOPING. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...WE SEE A RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A TROF IN THE EAST. OVER
THE COURSE OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...SEVERAL SHOTS OF
VORTICITY/ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE
TROF SET UP ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A BOUNDARY WILL LAY OUT
BY MID WEEK...AND WITH THE WNW FLOW ALOFT BY THAT TIME...IT SHOULD
LEAD TO TRAINING OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THAT RESULTS IN SOME NICE
RAINS FOR OUR AREA GIVEN HIGH PW`S. WED-THU LOOKS PARTICULARLY WET
AS LIKELY POPS THREATEN CATEGORICAL AND QPF AMOUNTS RANGE FROM
1-3". A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO...BUT IT`LL BE GOOD TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE/RAINS SET
UP FOR FORECAST AND AREAL CERTAINTY BEFORE WE PULL THAT TRIGGER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS WILL KEEP
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SURFACE REFLECTION OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MEANDER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE GOOD THING IS
THERE IS LOW QPF EXPECTED WITH THE EXTENDED. OF COURSE WITH PW`S
RANGING BETWEEN 1.5" AND 2" ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. LI`S REMAIN NEGATIVE WITH CAPE`S REMAINING
1K AND 2K J/KG2...SO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION WITH A FRONT IN THE AREA ALONG WITH ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS THEY WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY BUT WARM TO
AROUND NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

PATCHY PRE DAWN MVFR FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY
AT THE KCGI TERMINAL. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST
WITH DAYLIGHT...POSSIBLY GUSTING ABOVE 15 KTS AT KEVV/KOWB AT
TIMES. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR TSTM AT THE KEVV/KOWB TERMINALS
VERY LATE IN THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



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