Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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384
FXUS63 KPAH 290650
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
150 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Weak surface high pressure ridges across Tennessee valley today,
providing generally tranquil wx conditions. However, energy aloft
spoking base of long wave trof will develop/drive a cold front
across the Ohio valley this evening. There will be enough
convergence and moisture pooling along this boundary to produce
scattered showers, and marginal instability will allow for a
mention of thunder as well. This chance will be mainly across our
northern counties.

After the front passes Monday night, weak surface high pressure
again ridges across the Tennessee valley into Tuesday. And again,
more long wave energy aloft spokes the base of the mean trof and
develops/ushers another cold front/boundary into the Ohio river
valley Tuesday night. Pops return, and linger into Wednesday, with
the boundary`s passage. Improving conditions, once again, come
with a broader, more expansive surface high`s move across the Ohio
river valley Wed night.

Temps hover from the upper 70s to lower 80s, and from the upper
50s to lower 60s, through the period. This is right around the
climo norm for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

At the start of the extended period, the sfc high will still be on
its way eastward, allowing winds to eventually become southerly on
Thursday. As this occurs, moisture will be quick to return to the
area. We have two upper level disturbances that will be incoming
that will aid in the development of more precipitation. One impulse
that has been progged by the models for a few days now, originates
from the central Plains and dives southeast toward the area on
Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will be making its way
across Texas but this may not impact the area until Thursday night
or Friday. Even with the approach of these two features, models are
not really excited as far as QPF prospects right now but that will
likely change. Will keep POPs in the slight chance to chance
category for now for Thursday - Thursday night.

By Friday into Friday night, the aforementioned upper level low over
Texas will finally start to impact our region, providing better,
more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. The upper flow
pattern gets a little more challenging to decipher as we get into
the weekend however, as models start to diverge with their
solutions. But the rain chances will still be in full force.
Figuring out better timing as well as coverage/location will be what
needs to be fined tuned with subsequent forecasts. High temperatures
look to remain in the lower 80s for most part during the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A surface high across the Tennessee valley will yield to a
developing cold front/boundary that drops south across mainly our
northern terminals (KEVV/KOWB) this evening. This boundary may
have associated showers with its passage, which could produce
restrictions to VSBYS/CIGS or at least warrant a vicinity mention
at next issuance. Otherwise, after an early am bout of shallow fog
and its potential restrictions, it`ll be a generally tranquil VFR
day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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