160
FXUS63 KPAH 032343
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
543 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool through Thursday,
  followed by a gradual warming trend this weekend.
  Temperatures return to more seasonable by the middle of next
  week.

- A stray flurry and snow shower is possible tonight, mainly
  along and north of the I-64 corridor.

- Additional low end precipitation chances persist Thursday
  night and Saturday night into Sunday morning, but amounts
  remain extremely light at most with no impacts expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low stratus clouds will persist through this evening as a moisture
starved cold front begins to approach from the northwest. Added
some low PoPs for the overnight hours as a few stay flurries
and light snow showers will be possible, especially along/north
the I-64 corridor. The builder tries to put out light ZR
further south due to the lack of ice crystal growth, but any
pcpn should only amount to a trace at most as confidence remains
very low in seeing anything. Even up north, saturation in the
column remains below the DGZ around -10C.

Behind the cold front, a 1034 mb sfc high pressure over Iowa
Thursday morning will build over the FA, allowing for some
breaks of sun by the afternoon. This will also help suppress a
weak disturbance south of the KY/TN border as a 500 mb shortwave
moves zonal across the FA Thursday night. The 12km NAM remains
an outlier with some light wintry mix showers associated with
modest 700 mb WAA while the ARW2 barley clips the far southeast
most counties over the Kentucky Pennyrile. Meanwhile, most model
guidance shows no pcpn at all. Have blended NBM PoPs lower due
to the lack of support.

By Friday morning, a broad trough will remain in place across the
Ohio Valley as another 500 mb shortwave digs down into Texas
Saturday night into Sunday morning. The GFS has trended weaker
similar to the ECMWF in showing a disorganized weak wave of
moisture moving across the FA that would pose a risk of light
rain showers mixed with frozen precipitation. Next week then
starts off dry as another sfc high pressure builds into the FA
with additional impulses upstream.

Unseasonably cool temperatures with highs in the 30s begin to
moderate back into the 40s on Friday and Saturday, but lows each
night remain cold in the 20s. The warming trend eventually yields
more seasonable conditions by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A cold front will arrive at KCGI by 09Z and should clear KOWB by
13Z. Another band of MVFR ceilings is expected behind the front,
but confidence is not great in the evolution of the MVFR
ceilings ahead of it which cover all but KMVN. LAMP guidance
pushes them back over KMVN this evening and even lowers them to IFR
at all sites this evening. It appears that clearing is likely
at least at KMVN and KEVV by midday, and KCGI by the end of the
day. The ceilings are expected to linger over west Kentucky, so
indicated no clearing at KPAH or KOWB.

North winds will increase and become gusty quickly behind the
front and then continue through much of the day. Gusts will
generally be 15-20kts, with the strongest gusts at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DRS