678
FXUS61 KPBZ 021854
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
154 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Near-normal temperatures are generally favored this week, save
a few day-to-day fluctuations. Light rain chances increase north
of Pittsburgh late Wednesday, with more substantial rain
chances on Friday on a cold front with a potential cooldown
thereafter.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry with decreasing clouds and above average temperatures.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Despite surface high pressure persisting, southwest flow
downstream of a closed low in the southeast has allowed a but of
mid-to upper moisture to encroach through the day. This has
produced some returns on radar, but precipitation observations
have been few and far between with dry air near the surface, as
evidenced by the 12Z sounding. Cloud cover has generally
stalled temperature rebounds thus far below forecast, but
nonetheless, highs should still remain above average with
southwest flow.

Throughout the day, the forecast favors upper subsidence
winning out, decreasing cloud fractions into tonight, though
there is some uncertainty in this. Should clouds be maintained
longer, temperatures may remain above average overnight. In the
event they clear as forecast, a calm night with average low
temperatures is favored.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low probability light showers along / sprinkles north of I-80 Monday
- Dry and seasonable conditions persist otherwise.
----------------------------------------------------------------

A fast-moving shortwave will cross the region Monday afternoon
and push a weak surface cold front through the region during
the afternoon along with an associated moisture-starved front.
The frontal boundary result in little more than a wind shift
(veering to the west) and slight uptick in clouds, but enough
cold advection at 850mb could create a lake- enhanced shower
that skirts areas north of I-80. Any precipitation that falls
will be short-lived, very light, and result in little, if any,
measurable rain. Otherwise, near normal temperature with breezy
afternoon winds will characterize the day.

Strong surface high pressure developing south of the region
underneath quasi-zonal flow (slight NW angle though) portends
continued dry weather for Tuesday. Subtle cool advection will
knock area readings down a degree or two from Monday but still
be near the daily average.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
- Next system arrives Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning,
  with variances on southern extent of precipitation field.
- Active pattern hints at potentially deeper trough development
  heading into the next weekend.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Fast shortwave movement out of the Pacific northwest is
expected to enter the Great Lakes region Wednesday
afternoon/evening through Thursday morning. Ensembles strongly
favor the trough center remaining north of the region but vary
in the degree of depth (with nominal timing variances), which
will play a major role in the southward extent of precipitation
chances. The speed of movement and high likelihood of marginal
cooling aloft/behind the surface front minimizes the risk of
developing winter precipitation types while keeping rainfall
accumulations low (current data suggests only 15-30% probability
of totals exceeding 0.25").

The brief cooldown Thursday is likely to feature dry weather as
high pressure returns underneath brief shortwave ridging.
Ensembles suggest the pattern remains active thereafter with
additional shortwave movement creating periodic precipitation
chances starting Friday. However, cluster analysis suggests that
variations in trough depth as well as timing suggests a more
unclear picture for exact timing of future precipitation periods
and degree of cooling (plus any potential temperature rebound).
It is unlikely any scenario will feature headline-worthy
weather, but a mention of higher elevation snow (low
accumulation) could enter the discussion late in the weekend
into the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Chances of VFR skies remain >80% through the period with surface
high pressure and upper subsidence. That will not stop some
impinging high cirrus and diurnal high-based cumulus under the
upper deck. Wind will remain very light and south-southwesterly
today, becoming calmer overnight. Wind gusts return tomorrow,
increasing into the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
High pressure will continue to support high confidence (>80%
chance) of VFR through at least mid week. A weak disturbance
brings rain chances back to the area Wednesday into Thursday,
but confidence in any associated restrictions impacting area
terminals remains low at this time.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Milcarek
NEAR TERM...Milcarek/88
SHORT TERM...Frazier/88
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Milcarek