235
FXUS61 KPBZ 231505
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1005 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty wind expected today in the wake of a weak cold front.
Rain chances increase Tuesday with an approaching disturbance,
followed by mild conditions. Colder weather and rising snow
chances are expected Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Gusty wind today... Wind Advisory for Eastern Tucker County
- Dry weather expected with clouds clearing
---------------------------------------------------------------

Morning showers have exited in the wake of a passing mid level
wave. High pressure will build from the west through the day
today, and the pressure gradient will tighten between it and a
wake surface trough sliding just to our north and east. Weak
low level cold advection is reinforcing lapse rates and mixing
into a 30-35 knot low level jet. Both the gradient and mixing
will contribute to a gusty day today with probability for >25
mph gusts ranging from 20-40% in eastern Ohio to 70-90+% for the
rest of the area. The higher terrain is likely to see 30-40 mph
gusts, and both HREF and NBM probability for >46 mph gusts
(wind advisory criteria) is >80% in Eastern Tucker County. For
that reason, have pulled the trigger on a Wind Advisory there
through 5PM. Elsewhere, gusts will remain below advisory
criteria.

Aside from the winds, conditions should remain dry with
temperatures near seasonal norms. Gusts will ease after sunset
as diurnal heating diminishes. Overnight low temperatures will
trend near to slightly below average with relaxing wind and
partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and milder Monday
- Rain chances return Tuesday
----------------------------------------------------------------

A ridge axis will shift over the Ohio River Valley on Monday,
dry weather and mild temperatures are likely.

A low-pressure system is expected to form along the Rockies
within the next 24 hours, move into the Great Plains on Monday,
and then merge with a broader trough over the Midwest. This will
bring increasing rain chances early Tuesday with strengthening
southwest jet dynamics moving in. Warm advection will support
precipitation type to be rain, with mild conditions developing
after sunrise Tuesday. By late Tuesday night, rainfall totals
are forecast to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with eastern
Ohio on the higher end and a 40-45% probability of reaching or
exceeding a half inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances east of Pittsburgh likely Tuesday night into
  Wednesday
- Gusty shower potential Wednesday afternoon
- Colder conditions Thanksgiving and into the weekend
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thursday into Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dry air entraining from the west will likely limit early
Wednesday precipitation to areas east of Pittsburgh. A cold
front arriving Wednesday afternoon should provide enough lift to
trigger another round of rain showers, some of which may be
gusty given a 30-40kt low-level jet and pockets of shallow
instability.

After sunset Wednesday, the cold front will likely have already
moved through eastern Ohio. However, timing remains uncertain
near Pittsburgh and across the Laurel Highlands, depending on
how quickly the front progresses through the area. With elevated
wind gusts Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, wind
chill values will likely drop into the teens.

Colder weather and renewed lake-effect snow chances are expected
late Thursday into Friday. Long-range guidance indicates the
potential for accumulating snow across parts of Mercer, Venango,
and Forest Counties as persistent lake-effect bands develop, and
winter headlines may be needed mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some patches of MVFR cigs have impacted area terminals this
morning under departing stratocu in the wake of a passing
front. Drier air working in will erode a good bit of the
moisture and the low cloud layer, but the CU rule and model
soundings indicate cold advection after FROPA should steepen
lapse rates leading to a developing scattered to broken
stratocu layer. Cigs should be mainly VFR south of a BVI-IDI
line. FKL and DUJ are favored to hold on to MVFR until around
18z when mixing should sufficiently raise cigs and return VFR
for all sites. Cloud cover will likely be more scattered west of
the PA/OH line as surface high pressure begins to build in.

A tightening pressure gradient after FROPA, and mixing, should
result in WSW wind gusts to around 20 kt by mid morning through
the afternoon. Wind should subside this evening under the
building high as the pressure gradient relaxes.

Outlook...
River vly fog is possible tonight, otherwise VFR is expected
through Monday night as high pressure tracks across the region.
Restrictions and rain returns Tuesday with a warm front,
continuing Wednesday with a crossing cold front. Gusty W wind
and patchy cig restrictions and scattered snow showers are
possible Thu in cold advection and a crossing upper trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/MLB
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/MLB
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM/MLB