691
FXUS61 KPBZ 170805
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
305 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake-effect snow is continues north of I-80 into this
afternoon. Another passing system brings a rain/snow mix
Tuesday. Temperatures rise midweek before rainfall returns late-
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Gusty conditions through the day; Wind Advisory for eastern
  Tucker
- Lake effect snow near/north of I-80; winter headlines in
  effect

----------------------------------------------------------------

Cellular lake effect snow showers continue near and north of
I-80. At this time, we are finally seeing what could be the
focusing of showers into one dominant, heavier band, that models
have shown for days. This band is currently oriented through
northeastern Forest County, where we expect to see the highest
snowfall totals.

A Lake- Effect Snow Warning remains in effect for Forest County
until 1PM for snow accumulations between 6 to 10 inches, with
up to 12 inches a low but non-zero possibility if the band
remains over any one area longer. Snowfall totals will depend
highly on any drifting of the band to either the southwest or
northeast. At this time, some wavering is expected that will
supply northeastern portions of Venango, Clarion and Jefferson
Counties with 1-3 inches, in line with the ongoing Winter
Weather Advisory. If the band lingers over any of these counties
longer in the coming hours then an upgrade to a Lake-Effect
Warning could become necessary.

Boundary layer winds back slightly by early this afternoon
causing weakening and a northward shift in the heavy snow band,
ending the threat for significant snowfall.

The SFC pressure gradient slackens some during the day compared
to previous days. Winds can gust up to 25-30 mph across the
region today. Higher gusts up to 55 mph remain possible in the
high ground of eastern Tucker County, where a Wind Advisory
continues until 10AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quiet Monday night
- Another system crosses the region Tuesday returning a
  rain/snow mix
- Possibly slick commutes Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
----------------------------------------------------------------

Subtle high pressure noses down through the Ohio Valley from
the Upper Midwest by Monday night. This helps to promote quiet
and dry conditions as well as slacken the SFC pressure gradient
finally ending breezy conditions across the region. Clear and
calm conditions promote efficient radiative cooling overnight
and low temperatures Tuesday morning will likely trend between
5-10 degrees below average.

After sunrise on Tuesday, a new quick hitting system moves out
of the northern Plains and crosses the Ohio Valley returning
precipitation chances. At onset, precipitation could begin as
snow, with lingering low-level dry air supporting some wet
bulbing aloft. Forecast soundings look to even support some
amount of sleet with a minimal warm nose above a SFC layer just
below or at freezing. Temperature profiles hover near freezing
through the low levels and support a heavy, wet snow with
limited accumulations. Some amount of caution is advised for the
Tuesday morning commute with frozen precipitation falling and
SFC temps below freezing.

Precipitation mixes with then turns over to all rain by late
morning or early afternoon amid warming SFC temps and ongoing
WAA. Rainfall amounts are expected to be on the lighter side in
the lowlands, generally between 0.10-0.25 inches. Higher
amounts, perhaps closer to 0.50-1.00 inches look to be possible
in the WV ridges owing to more prolonged upsloping. POPs begin
to wane by late Tuesday night but some model soundings hint at
the low end possibility for precipitation to end as isolated
instances of ice across our eastern ridges. As such, there could
be slick spots to watch out for on the Wednesday morning
commute, mainly in the eastern ridges.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures into next weekend
- Rain chances rise again late week with another passing
  disturbance likely
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensembles continue to prog height rises during the latter half
of the week supporting moderating temperatures. Despite ridge
building aloft, inverted troughing across the Ohio Valley may
support low end rain chances Wednesday night and Thursday.

A majority of clustered ensembles continue to favor a shortwave
trough dropping from the Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes
by Thursday night. There continue to be large differences in
both strength and timing of this wave. However, increasingly
moist southwest flow spurs increasing rain chances by as early
as Thursday night with an advancing warm front. The associated
cold FROPA looks to occur Friday/Friday night triggering a
northwest flow regime that could keep POPs elevated through
Saturday. A drier trend may return by Sunday as ensembles weakly
agree on subtle height rises. However, a largely "zonal" flow
look to ensembles by late this weekend or early next week may be
more indicative of smoothing out subtle differences in each
member rather than an actual zonal flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will continue north of I-80 this
morning. Most ports are expected to remain VFR, but KDUJ may see
MVFR restrictions with snow given it`s proximity to possible
snow band positions. It`s not a zero percent chance KDUJ could
observe IFR/LIFR conditions in poor visibility, but confidence
at this time is too low to included in the latest TAFs.

With a tight pressure gradient, expected wind gusts to range
between 25 to 35 kts today.

Outlook...
Lake effect snow band(s) will diminish by this evening under
increasing subsidence.

Periodic restriction and precipitation chances are expected
through next weekend as the area remains under a relatively
active weather pattern.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ008-015-016.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ009.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ514.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AK
NEAR TERM...AK
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...88