553
FXUS61 KPBZ 182316
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
616 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing system may produce a brief period of wintry mix or
snow early this morning in eastern Ohio before transitioning to
rain in the afternoon and evening. Milder conditions are
expected toward the end of the week with returning rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances increase by this evening Tuesday; heavier
  amounts expected south of I-70
----------------------------------------------------------------

Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 30s everywhere
and the threat of frozen precipitation has ended. There was some
light snow and sleet this morning but with above freezing
temperatures during the day impacts were minimal.

Short wave trough over IL will accelerate east tonight in
confluent upper flow and gradually weaken as it reaches the
forecast area toward midnight. 850-700 mb warm advection will be
strongest toward West Virginia and thus strongest lift and
heaviest QPF will be along the Pennsylvania/West Virginia Border
on south. 25th-75th percentile QPF will be in 0.50-1.25" range
down south, and roughly 0.25-0.50" in the Pittsburgh metro. Much
lighter QPF expected toward I-80 with ranges of less than
0.10-0.25". It could stay dry in the far north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quieter weather
- Temperatures to moderate back towards normal
----------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure builds at the surface over the Great Lakes as 500
mb heights build about 80 meters. Significant sinking and drying
should break up the lingering stratus by late morning to midday
and result in high temperatures close to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Above average temperatures into this weekend
- Rain chances Thursday through Saturday with another passing
disturbance
- Dry conditions on Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday night, an upper-level trough will drop across the northern
Great Lakes bringing rain into the region by Friday. Ensembles
continue to maintain differences in the depth and speed of the
trough. A deeper and/or slower trough would lean towards higher
rainfall totals across the region while the weaker and/or faster
trough would result in lower rainfall accumulations. Either way, the
90th percentile rain accumulation looks to remain around or below 1
inch for the region. Highest accumulations will be across southern
Ohio and central/southern West Virginia.

A warm frontal passage Thursday night into Friday will cause high
temperatures on Friday to be 5-10 degrees above average. On
Friday/Friday night, the cold front crosses the region triggering a
northwest flow regime that could keep POPs elevated, especially
along the ridges, through Saturday due to orographic lift. Despite
cold FROPA, temperatures are expected to remain near normal.

The flow will become more westerly with a less amplified pattern by
Saturday night/early Sunday morning. This will begin a drier trend
as subtle height rises are favored for a brief period of time. By
Monday, ensembles hint at upper-level troughing advancing towards
the region. This will bring the next best chance for rain Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain showers will continue to fill in on the backside of a
passing low pressure. Rain may bring visibility restrictions
for most, with patchy MVFR/IFR vis favored in rain overnight
then haze through morning in a cool saturated environment. Rain
may get heavier on the backside of the departing low, with
brief period of lowering vis to IFR/LIFR (most likely for DUJ
with a chance of a transition back to snow). Precipitation is
expected to depart for most between 06Z and 09Z (save ZZV).

The higher chance of restrictions will come in cigs dropping,
with a 70% to 100% chance of MVFR (highest south of I-80).
Chances of overnight cigs dropping below IFR are 50% to 70%,
generally highest for ZZV, HLG, AGC, LBE, and MGW. Surface
moisture and a stable environment will likely keep restrictions
through daybreak with only meager rising and scattering into
the day tomorrow. The most likely scenario is mixing into a
broken MVFR deck for most, but scattered decks were noted for
FKL.

Wind will generally remain light and northerly throughout the
period with a easterly to northerly wind shift in the 00Z to 06Z
window.

Outlook...
High pressure briefly returns Wednesday and Thursday but
surface moisture will maintain a 50/50 shot at VFR/MVFR cigs
through the period. Chances of restrictions and rain increase
with a passing disturbance Friday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Craven
NEAR TERM...Craven
SHORT TERM...Craven
LONG TERM...Lupo
AVIATION...Milcarek