345
FXUS61 KPBZ 221745
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1245 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather returns through Monday save a chance of a rain or
snow shower north of Interstate 80 late Saturday night.
Temperatures should rise to above normal by mid-week. Low
pressure returns areawide rain on Tuesday, followed by a cooler
end to the week with lake effect snow possible by week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry with near normal temperatures
---------------------------------------------------------------

Morning showers have cleared the area as the mid-level shortwave
exits to the east and subsidence increases with surface ridging. Low
level cold advection in northerly flow off of Lake Erie is
steepening low level lapse rates and, combined with dry air
intrusion and diurnal mixing, the blanket of low stratus and fog
from this morning has mostly dissipated and transitioned to a
stratocu deck. Forecast soundings suggest mixing heights to near
850 mb, but relatively weak flow in that layer (15-20 knots on
recent ACARS soundings) won`t support much momentum transfer but
rather a 5-10 mph breeze this afternoon. Some sun will peek
through the stratocu layer, especially later this afternoon and
more likely west of Pittsburgh, with highs near 50 degrees.

Dry weather continues through tonight, though clouds will be
reinforced ahead of an approaching shortwave diving through the
Great Lakes. 12z CAMs support some light precip sliding along the I-
80 corridor overnight with a weak surface trough. Thermal profiles
are marginally cold and would likely support a rain/snow mix albeit
very light and with minimal to no impacts. Light southerly flow and
increasing clouds will hold overnight lows right around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Passing low over the Great Lakes may bring isolated rain
  showers north of Pittsburgh early Sunday
- Below freezing temperatures Sunday night
- Dry and milder Monday
----------------------------------------------------------------

Most of the shower activity north of I-80 should depart the
region by 12Z Sunday, although a few more may occur around
midday as the shortwave trough axis and a surface boundary
cross. Negligible impact is expected. The frontal passage will
aid in steepening low-level lapse rates, allowing for the
development of blustery afternoon conditions. Went with the 90th
percentile NBM gust suggestions. Peaks of 20 to 30 MPH should
be widespread, with some of potentially up to 40 MPH along the
ridges. Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s will be common.

Surface high pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Sunday
night. This will clear skies and calm wind, leading to a good
radiational cooling night. Low temperatures below freezing are a
good bet, with the vast majority of the forecast area having an
80 percent or greater chance of low temperatures below 32
degrees.

Monday should dawn mostly sunny. Later, middle and upper clouds will
begin to invade in westerly flow aloft ahead of a relatively flat
mid-level ridge. The clouds should help to largely offset much of
the temperature rise from warm advection. Thus, continued fairly
seasonable temperatures for late November are progged.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return early Tuesday and continue into Wednesday
- Colder conditions Thanksgiving and into the weekend
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thursday into Friday night
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Most guidance agrees that a shortwave over the central Plains at 00Z
Tuesday will ride northeastward towards the Great Lakes and dampen
out as it does so, while a surface low crosses the Upper Midwest.
The resulting southwest flow and shot of moisture is expected to
bring our next chance of widespread rain later Monday night into
Tuesday, along with above-normal temperatures. The steadiest,
heaviest rain is likely Tuesday morning, before advancing mid-level
dry air begins to limit QPF potential during the afternoon. A
wetting rain (0.10" or more) is likely, with NBM likelihood of 80
percent or greater areawide for this event through Tuesday night. A
more soaking rain of 0.50" or more is less so, with eastern Ohio the
main region with chances of 30 percent or more of such totals.

Thereafter, ensembles continue to advertise a notable pattern shift
from midweek on. The next, much stronger shortwave crossing the
Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will likely wrap into a closed
500mb low by Thanksgiving, dropping a trough over the northeast
CONUS. Another mild day with showers is expected Wednesday, before
the return of subzero 850mb temperatures brings a return of below-
normal temperature and a change to snow showers beginning Wednesday
night. The difference between those 850mb temperatures and the Lake
Erie surface temperature may support some level of lake-effect
activity. Details on shortwave movement and low-level wind
trajectory become more muddled for the second half of the week. At
this distance, a more westerly or perhaps west-northwesterly flow
may be favored, which would keep much of the lake-effect snow north
of I-80, and the more significant potential totals closer to the
lake shore. It will be at least a few days before we are able to
forecast snow chances with a higher level of confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The low stratus deck has now eroded this afternoon with mixing and
drier air working in in northerly flow. Low level cold advection off
of Lake Erie is supporting a transition to diurnal stratocu
development with cigs hovering right around the 3kft mark. Expect
that MVFR cigs will hang on for perhaps another hour after 18z for
PIT and north while eroding a few hours thereafter for LBE/MGW
before becoming SCT to BKN just above 3kft. Won`t entirely rule out
some sites still bouncing down to MVFR briefly, but the trend
through the afternoon should be toward VFR.

Mid and high clouds are then expected to increase tonight as surface
trough approaches. Some light RASN mix could impact FKL/DUJ after
09z tonight, but impacts should be minimal and VFR likely prevails.
Elsewhere, dry conditions expected overnight with light to calm
wind.

Outlook...
A brief period of MVFR cigs is possible Sunday late-
morning with highest chance at FKL/DUJ. Otherwise, VFR is expected
as high pressure builds across the region through Monday night.
Restriction and rain potential returns Tuesday with a warm front,
followed by a Wednesday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MLB/CL
NEAR TERM...MLB
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...MLB