467
FXUS61 KPBZ 230906
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
406 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Gusty conditions are expected after sunrise with a passing
shortwave. Rain chances increase Tuesday with an approaching
disturbance, followed by mild conditions. Colder weather and
rising snow chances are expected Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Gusty conditions expected late morning into early afternoon
- Dry weather expected today with a mostly a clear sky
---------------------------------------------------------------

A shortwave moving through early this morning will boost the
potential for gusty winds between 10am and 3pm today. Lower
elevations can expect gusts of 25-35mph, while the higher
terrain of West Virginia and Pennsylvania may see 35-45mph.

Aside from the winds, conditions should remain dry with
temperatures near seasonal norms. Gusts will ease after sunset
as diurnal heating diminishes. Overnight low temperatures will
trend near to slightly below average under clear conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and milder Monday
- Rain chances return Tuesday
----------------------------------------------------------------


A ridge axis will shift over the Ohio River Valley on Monday,
dry weather and mild temperatures are likely.

A low-pressure system is expected to form along the Rockies
within the next 24 hours, move into the Great Plains on Monday,
and then merge with a broader trough over the Midwest. This will
bring increasing rain chances early Tuesday with strengthening
southwest jet dynamics moving in. Warm advection will support
precipitation type to be rain, with mild conditions developing
after sunrise Tuesday. By late Tuesday night, rainfall totals
are forecast to range from 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with eastern
Ohio on the higher end and a 40-45% probability of reaching or
exceeding a half inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances east of Pittsburgh likely Tuesday night into
  Wednesday
- Gusty shower potential Wednesday afternoon
- Colder conditions Thanksgiving and into the weekend
- Lake-effect snow potential late Thursday into Friday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dry air entraining from the west will likely limit early
Wednesday precipitation to areas east of Pittsburgh. A cold
front arriving Wednesday afternoon should provide enough lift to
trigger another round of rain showers, some of which may be
gusty given a 30-40kt low-level jet and pockets of shallow
instability.

After sunset Wednesday, the cold front will likely have already
moved through eastern Ohio. However, timing remains uncertain
near Pittsburgh and across the Laurel Highlands, depending on
how quickly the front progresses through the area. With elevated
wind gusts Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, wind
chill values will likely drop into the teens.

Colder weather and renewed lake-effect snow chances are expected
late Thursday into Friday. Long-range guidance indicates the
potential for accumulating snow across parts of Mercer, Venango,
and Forest Counties as persistent lake-effect bands develop, and
winter headlines may be needed mid-week.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR is expected through early morning as a band of stratocu/low
altocu cross the region with the approach and passage of a cold
front. Patchy, very light rain is possible at FKL and DUJ under
this cloud layer as the front crosses. Elsewhere, the CU rule
and model soundings indicate the cold advection after FROPA
should steepen lapse rates, leading to a scattered to broken
stratocu layer developing. Cigs should be mainly VFR south of a
BVI-IDI line, with MVFR to the north. Cloud cover will likely be
more scattered west of the PA/OH line as surface high pressure
begins to build in.

A tightening pressure gradient behind after FROPA, and mixing,
should result in WSW wind gusts to around 20kt by mid morning
through the afternoon. Wind should subside this evening under
the building high as the pressure gradient relaxes.


Outlook...
River vly fog is possible tonight, otherwise VFR is expected
through Monday night as high pressure tracks across the region.
Restrictions and rain returns Tuesday with a warm front,
continuing Wednesday with a crossing cold front. Gusty W wind
and patchy cig restrictions and scattered snow showers are
possible Thu in cold advection and a crossing upper trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM