Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR
326 FXUS66 KPDT 300607 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1007 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025 .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Ceilings will remain in the LIFR and IFR categories for many of the terminals overnight as the areas recovers from as weak upper trough overspreading a cold surface airmass. DLS and YKM will be MVFR or better. Farther eastward the PDT and Alw had lingering -SN and limited visibility to around 1 mile as a result. This will continue for a few more hours. PSC was a little warmer resulting in the rain precipitation type. To the west, BDN and RDM have LAV forecasts that maintain the stratus overnight with little hope of any improvement until around 12z and afterward. Russell/71 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025/ DISCUSSION...Much of the forecast area is covered by a deck of low clouds this afternoon, with some patchy fog reported along the foothills of the Blues, as northwesterly flow aloft pushes a cold air mass into the PacNW. Riding this NW flow will be a shortwave trough, which threatens to bring a round of snow to primarily the Blue Mountains and foothills this evening and overnight. The region will then fall under this cold NW pattern for much of the next week. In tracking this upcoming shortwave, hi-res models seem to shift the mid and upper-level winds more northerly behind the trough axis. This has resulted in a shift of the snow forecast away from the northern Blues and more toward the southern stretch of the mountains. Should continue to note that this system remains moisture- starved due to its continental polar origin, with NAM PWATs ranging in the 0.3 to 0.5 range, so much of the dynamics driving the precip in this system will be orographic. Even then, guidance generally only depicts about an inch or two of snow accumulations along the ridgetops of the southern Blues, with a hotspot around the Strawberries. Still, such patterns do favor orographic snow along the foothills of the Blues, would could potentially impact Pendleton. But with the more northerly track of this system, confidence has decreased a little on Pendleton receiving even a half inch of snow. Such a scenario isn`t inconceivable, but forecasting message around this system generally leans toward a `dusting` of snow rather than anything particularly impactful. Transitory ridging then moves in late Sunday into Monday, bringing with it the potential for more low clouds and fog in the Basin. The next system then looks to impact the forecast area late Monday into Tuesday. Models thus far favor a more northwesterly trajectory for this system, which would result in accumulating snowfall for the northern Blues more so than the southern, but confidence is low (30%) in this system resulting in any headlines, with only a couple inches currently forecasted for Meacham, Tollgate, etc. Ensembles suggest we`ll remain locked in this NW flow pattern through at least the end of next week, with intermittent precip chances materializing as shortwaves embedded within the flow regime sweep through the PacNW. 74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 37 25 37 23 / 10 60 0 0 ALW 36 28 36 26 / 0 40 10 0 PSC 39 24 39 24 / 10 20 0 0 YKM 40 23 42 24 / 10 10 0 0 HRI 39 26 39 24 / 10 40 0 0 ELN 37 21 39 23 / 10 10 0 0 RDM 43 23 39 19 / 0 20 10 0 LGD 40 26 40 21 / 0 60 0 0 GCD 45 26 39 22 / 0 60 0 0 DLS 43 32 44 30 / 10 20 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...71