329
FXUS66 KPDT 170553
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
953 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...The area is situated between a trough and ridge,
allowing for upper southerly winds to bring abundant moisture and
widespread cloud cover into the area. An area of showers coupled
with low to mid level clouds is situated across the Columbia Basin
into the Southern Blue Mountains and Eastern Mountains. Brief
periods of on and off showers continue for parts of Central Oregon
and the Cascade Mountains. Rain showers are expected to continue
going through Tuesday, with some of these showers turning into
mountain snow showers or a rain/snow mix going through the next 24
to 36 hours. No significant accumulation is expected from this
system.

We`ll receive a brief dry period on Wednesday as a ridge pushes
ashore and amplifies slightly to bring some subsidence conditions
to hinder precip. Clearer skies and weaker winds overnight
Wednesday morning will cool min temperatures below freezing for
much of the area. The coolest temperatures will be located along
Central Oregon with low temps expected to be in the low to mid
20s. Elsewhere will see high 20s to mid 30s. Going through the
rest of the week, slight chance of PoP (20-40%) will continuously
be on and off in the Basin as another shortwave paves its way into
the region, albeit a bit weaker than the current system situated
today. Mountain snow showers will continue to develop with the
heaviest accumulations occurring the Central WA Cascades, with
secondary regional maxima in the Wallowa Mountains & OR
Cascades. Exact details on QPF amounts are yet to be determined
but NBM is generating up to a foot in some parts of the crests
during this upcoming weekend, followed by up to five inches in the
Wallowas & OR Cascades. No immediate highlights expected in the
short term, but a will need to keep an eye on the trend of min
temperatures in the Gorge area for WAZ024 & ORZ041 for possible
freezing, giving the area its seasonal ending freeze if it
verifies.

AVIATION...06Z TAFS...Variable conditions are forecast for the
next 24 hours as a weather system brings isolated to scattered
showers and periods of sub-VFR CIGs/VSBYs into Monday.

Confidence in showers ranges from 30 to 50 percent at TAF sites,
highest at BDN/RDM overnight into Monday morning.

Recent rain has produced near-saturated surface conditions for
much of the Columbia Basin, and patchy fog as low as 1/4SM has
already been observed this evening. Confidence in at least some
areas of fog overnight through Monday morning is high (80
percent), but confidence in timing/magnitude of VSBY drops at TAF
sites was generally too low to include a mention other than 6SM BR
in the 06Z TAFs.

Winds of 10 kts or less are forecast for all sites, except Monday
afternoon and evening at DLS when westerly winds ramp through the
Gorge.

Overall, have lower-than-average confidence in forecast details.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  44  57  38  49 /  80  40  30  20
ALW  47  58  42  48 /  90  60  50  40
PSC  44  58  39  52 /  70  20  20  10
YKM  43  57  36  53 /  30  20  20  10
HRI  45  57  40  51 /  70  30  20  10
ELN  40  54  34  47 /  50  30  40  10
RDM  37  55  29  47 /  40  40  10   0
LGD  43  55  37  51 / 100  70  50  40
GCD  42  56  35  51 /  90  50  30  20
DLS  48  57  41  52 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95
AVIATION...86