720
FXUS61 KPHI 301146
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
646 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry high pressure will push offshore today. Meanwhile,
a low pressure system and associated cold front will approach
the region, with the cold front passing through tonight. Low
pressure will develop over the Southeast Monday night before
tracking northeast towards our area Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Another cold front will track through the region Thursday night,
with high pressure building back in thereafter. Another system
may impact the region Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A mid-level trough now centered over the Great Lakes continues
to track eastward towards the area. The trough axis will lift
northeastward today, passing to the north of our area this
evening. At the surface, high pressure continues to move to the
east offshore this morning as a subtle warm front approaches and
moves through the area. A cold front trailing a low pressure
system moving eastward through southern portions of Ontario and
Quebec will track through the region this evening.

Light precipitation will begin to move into western portions of
our area during the morning hours, and spread across the entire
area by afternoon. Most locations will see a cold rain. Across
the higher elevations north of the Lehigh Valley into the
Southern Poconos and perhaps even into portions of far
northwestern NJ, precipitation is expected to start as light
snow, changing to a wintry mix of rain, snow, and sleet during
the afternoon. All precipitation will come to an end with the
passage of the cold front during the afternoon and evening
hours. Rainfall amounts look to generally be in the 0.1- 0.25"
range. Snow accumulations up to 1" are possible in the Poconos.
While these are not overly significant amounts, extra care
should be taken while traveling with some potential for slick
spots, particularly during/after the change over to a wintry
mix.

Afternoon highs will be in the mid-upper 30s for the Poconos,
low- mid 40s elsewhere northwest of I-95, and upper 40s to near
50 southeast of I-95. For the Coastal Plain, temperatures could
climb into the low 50s. It will also be breezy, with south-
southwesterly winds gusting to 20-25 mph.

Once the cold front clears the region this evening, dry
conditions will resume for the overnight hours tonight as skies
begin to clear as well. Lows will be fairly similar tonight to
this morning (mainly upper 20s, low 30s for the immediate coast
and the urban corridor) but with a sustained westerly breeze
around 10-15 mph and gusts up to around 20 mph continuing, it
will feel much colder. Wind chills into the upper teens to low
20s are expected for most locations tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will be another cold and dry day with the high pressure
system overhead. The high does start to move off to the
northeast late Monday into Monday night. As the high departs, we
see an increase in clouds by the second half of the day ahead
of our next system. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Winds will also gradually lessen through the day Monday
and by Monday night winds are 5-10 mph out of the north before
turning more out of the east through the night.

The main story for the short term will be the strengthening
system moving northeast Monday night and off the coast into
Tuesday, which will bring widespread precipitation to the
region. There will be a low developing over the southeastern US
and the high pressure system will retreat off to the northeast
Monday night. This low will make its closest approach to the
area Tuesday afternoon, and begin departing to the northeast by
Tuesday night.

In terms of the details with this system, no significant
changes have been made to the forecast or messaging for Tuesday.
There are chance PoPs (30-50%) starting overnight Monday night,
with the highest PoPs (90-100%) being during the daytime
Tuesday. There has been a trend toward a somewhat faster
solution in the deterministic guidance, hence the slight
increase in PoPs in the predawn hours Tuesday morning. If this
trend holds, it could have implications on initial precip type
into the I-95 corridor. The precipitation will end from west to
east pretty quickly by late Tuesday afternoon and evening as the
low moves off to the northeast.

For the precipitation accumulation, QPF has remained fairly
steady around 0.75-1.25" across the board, greatest across the
coastal plain and least farther inland north of I-78. Due to the
earlier trend in precip onset, there is the potential for light
snow initially for much of the area, as far south as
northeastern Maryland, central and northern Delaware, and
portions of interior southern New Jersey. This initial light
snow could result in minimal accumulation (a dusting less than
1"), and would not last long as the low draws closer to the area
changing the precip to rain. Again, any snowfall occuring this
far south will be dependent on exactly how quickly the precip
moves into the area. A slower onset would probably mean mostly
all rain southeast of I-95.

Through the day Tuesday, the onshore flow and warm marine
influence will impact the temperature profiles. By daybreak
Tuesday, the rain/snow line should be near or perhaps just NW of
the I-95 corridor. As the warmer air continues to filter in,
the rain/snow line may get as far NW as I-78 and northwestern
New Jersey by Tuesday afternoon. For perspective on this, the
temperatures for highs on Tuesday are near freezing in the
Poconos, upper 30s northwest of the fall line, near 40 degrees
along the I-95 corridor, and in the mid 40s to near 50 in
Delmarva and along the coastal areas. Although areas may start
as snow, it does not appear that it will last for much of the
area. Right now, the Poconos have the best potential at an all
snow event from this system.

As for snowfall accumulation, the potential continues to
increase for plowable snow (2" or more) in the Poconos and areas
along and north of I-78. As you head well south and east of
I-78, the potential for plowable snow quickly decreases. Our
latest forecast includes snowfall amounts less than 1" for the
immediate I-95 corridor, 1-2" for areas just northwest of there,
and in the 2-4" range for the I-78 corridor and NW NJ. Higher
elevations (especially 1,500 feet and higher) in NW NJ and
across the Pocono Plateau have potential for snowfall in the
4-8" range, but confidence on totals here remains low due to the
uncertain track of the low.

Outside of mainly the Poconos, the snow that falls will then be
melting through the day with the change to all rain and warm
air moving further inland. The areas that see all rain or a
change to rain will have a good soaking all- day type of rain. A
few precipitation and/or snowfall records could be challenged.
See the Climate section below for more details on the records.

Once the low departs Tuesday night, a high pressure system will
build in from the southwest. This will lead to drier conditions
through the night. Lows Tuesday night are in the 20s for most,
which may lead to some black ice issues where any slushy snow
melt refreezes on roadways (especially near and north of I-78).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
During the long term period, we have a high pressure system in
control through the middle of the week. Temperatures will
remain below normal, with highs on Wednesday and Thursday in the
mid 30s to mid 40s. A cold front looks to cross the area
Thursday into Thursday night. As the cold front passes through,
there is the potential for some snow showers, especially
near/north of I-78. The main factor with this cold front will be
the notably colder airmass in its wake. Thursday night looks
increasingly likely to be the coldest night so far this season,
with widespread low temperatures in the 10s to low 20s, and even
single digits for the higher terrain. By Friday, highs are only
in the low to mid 30s for most areas, with daytime maximum wind
chills in the 20s. Beyond that, our next system looks to arrive
late Friday into Saturday, bringing potential for another round
of widespread precipitation, including wintry precipitation.
However, details on this system remain very unclear at the
moment.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR to start. Light rain will move in from southwest to
northeast between 15-18Z, with MVFR ceilings accompanying it.
Visibility restrictions are possible as well at times, so
included PROB30 groups at all terminals for the most likely
period of lowest restrictions. South-southwest winds around 10
kt with gusts up to 20- 25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...Conditions return to VFR with CIGs rising then clouds
clear out for mostly clear conditions after 06Z. Westerly winds
around 10 kts with some gusts around 20 kts lingering. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Monday through Monday night...Primarily VFR. NW winds may gust
up to 20 kts early. Chance (30-50%) of sub-VFR conditions in
rain or snow late Monday night.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Restrictions expected in low
clouds and precipitation. Snow changing to rain at RDG/ABE. For
the I-95 terminals, precipitation may begin as snow for a
couple hours before a change to rain. All rain for MIV/ACY.
Conditions should improve by late Tuesday night, though gusty NW
winds will be possible.

Wednesday...VFR. No significant weather.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Gusty WNW winds possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are expected through early this morning
with south-southeast winds around 10 kts. Winds will turn south-
southwesterly and begin to increase mid-morning today to around
20 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Seas will increase to 4-6 feet. As
a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting at 10
AM for the Atlantic Coastal Waters.

Along the Delaware Bay, winds will be a bit lighter compared to
the coastal ocean waters during the day today, around 10-15 kts
with gusts up to around 20 kts. By tonight though, with winds
shifting to the west, winds will reach SCA criteria for the Bay
as well with gusts up to 30 kts. As a result, a Small Craft
Advisory has been issued starting at 10 PM tonight for the
Delaware Bay.

Gusty westerly winds of up to 30 knots continue across all
coastal waters through the overnight hours tonight and the SCA
will remain in place through this period as a result.

Outlook...

Monday...SCA conditions possible in the morning with winds near
25 kts. The winds lessen through the day. Fair weather.

Monday night...No marine hazards anticipated. Fair weather.

Tuesday through Wednesday...SCA conditions likely with east
winds increasing to near 25-30 kts and then becoming northwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Brief gale force wind gusts
possible Tuesday night. Winds look to diminish Wednesday
afternoon. Seas 5-7 feet, also diminishing Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Thursday night...SCA conditions likely
Thursday afternoon into early Thursday night as NW winds
increase to near 25-30 kts and seas reach near 5 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Widespread moderate to heavy precipitation is expected on
Tuesday, December 2nd. A few daily precipitation and/or snowfall
records could be challenged. Records for our climate sites are
listed below:

Record Precipitation (Rainfall)
                       December 2
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)        0.86"/1934
AC Airport (ACY)       1.03"/1996
AC Marina (55N)        1.18"/1929
Georgetown (GED)       1.11"/1974
Mount Pocono (MPO)     3.56"/1996
Philadelphia (PHL)     1.48"/1986
Reading (RDG)          1.29"/1981
Trenton (TTN)          2.13"/1986
Wilmington (ILG)       1.27"/1991

Record Snowfall
                       December 2
Site                  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)         3.6"/1952
AC Airport (ACY)           T/2019*
Philadelphia (PHL)      2.0"/1903
Reading (RDG)           6.0"/1929
Trenton (TTN)           3.0"/1903
Wilmington (ILG)        1.0"/1952

*Multiple years with a Trace.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ430-431.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM EST
     Monday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Guzzo/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...AKL/Cooper
SHORT TERM...Guzzo/Staarmann
LONG TERM...Guzzo/Staarmann
AVIATION...AKL/Guzzo/Staarmann
MARINE...AKL/Guzzo/Staarmann
CLIMATE...Staarmann