999
FXUS61 KPHI 112059
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered near the Southeastern US will keep
conditions dry through Wednesday. A cold front with cross our
area later Wednesday with high pressure building towards the end
of the week through the the weekend. The next low pressure
system potentially arrives late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong westerly pressure gradient will remain across our
region through Wednesday as the area remains sandwiched between
a strong low to the northeast and a strong high to the
southwest. However, the gradient will be gradually weakening
over this period, as a surface ridge will pass across the area
tonight, and the high to the southwest draws a bit closer.

Heading into this evening, the gusty winds we have seen this
afternoon will begin to diminish with the loss of daytime
mixing. Gusts will gradually diminish to around 20 to 30 mph.
The lingering snow showers will diminish as well, and should be
out of the area completely by mid-evening.

The strong daytime winds will continue to lessen tonight, but
will remain around 10-15 mph. With the passage of the ridge, winds
shifting southwesterly, and bring an end to the cold air
advection. The passage will also bring the passage of some mid-
level clouds later in the overnight hours. The result of this
combination is that temperatures won`t be as cold as the
previous night. Lows will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s,
producing wind chills in the 20s for most areas by dawn
Wednesday morning.

Southwesterly flow continues into Wednesday and as a result,
temperatures will warm into the upper 40s to low 50s by the
afternoon. It will still be breezy though as the pressure
gradient lingers over the area. Sustained winds around 15 mph
are expected with gusts up to 30 mph. Otherwise, a dry day is
expected with partly to mostly cloudy skies once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front slides through the area overnight Wednesday but
does not look to bring much in the form of precip. We do continue to
see cold air filter in out of the west. There is cyclonic flow
across the area into Thursday due to a low pressure system that the
cold front is attached to being to the north in Canada. Due to a
combination of the cyclonic flow, deterministic guidance, and model
sounding data, I opted to include a mention of slight chance to
chance of rain and snow showers in the Poconos for Wednesday night
into Thursday. Outside of the Poconos, the remainder of our NW zones
and parts of northern New Jersey may also see some of these rain and
snow showers but PoPs are below mentionable at this time as showers
look more isolated currently. Lows are mainly in the 30s Wednesday
night and highs on Thursday reach the mid 40 to mid 50s. A high
pressure system trying to build into the region along with the low
to the north will keep a tighter pressure gradient across the area
on Thursday. Due to the cold air advection, the tighter pressure
gradient, and mixing potential, it will be a bit windy Thursday with
gusts to 25-30 mph.

By Thursday night, winds decrease to 15-20 mph. Lows on Thursday
night are in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Friday is when that high
pressure system moves in but this high pressure system is on the
weaker side. There may again be a potential for some isolated
showers Friday with the NW flow but PoPs are below mentionable at
this time due to a drier trend through the day with the high
pressure system moving in. Just like Thursday, it will be a bit
windy with gusts 20-30 mph. Highs on Friday are mainly in the mid
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Our high pressure system moves across the area into Saturday which
keeps us dry. Minimal cloud cover Friday night will be followed by
increasing clouds late Saturday ahead of our next system. Highs on
Saturday are in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Our next system arrives Saturday night. A low pressure system will
move into the Great Lakes region and a warm front lifts through the
area Saturday night. This will lead to the chance (30-50%) for rain
showers across much of the area. As the low pressure system moves
into the Northeast, it drags a cold front through our area Sunday.
This keeps the chance for showers going into Sunday. By Sunday
night, we trend drier which continues into Monday. There is the
signal for another system around Monday night into Tuesday which
brings the potential for more rain showers to the area. Highs on
Sunday are in the mid 50s to mid 60s. We are cooler Monday with
highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Remainder of Today...VFR ceilings. Slight chance of a brief
snow shower or flurries mainly at ABE, possibly as far south as
RDG/TTN. Some visibility restrictions possible with a passing
snow shower, but confidence remains too low at this time to
include in the TAFs. WNW winds near 20-25 kts with persistent
gusts around 30-35 kts much of the day. Some peak gusts near 40
kts possible. Low confidence in any impacts from snow showers;
high confidence otherwise.

Tonight...VFR ceilings. Westerly winds 15-20 kts with gusts up
to 30 kts early, diminishing to around 10 kts and shifting
toward the southwest between 03Z-06Z. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. Southwesterly winds around 10-15 knots with
gusts around 20-25 knots. High confidence.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR. Wind gusts 20-25 knots during the daytime hours.

Friday and Saturday...VFR. Wind gusts up to 20 knots during the
daytime hours.

Sunday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warnings in effect across all marine zones. Westerly winds
will increase to 25-35 kts with gusts up to 40 kts at times.
Seas 4-7 feet.

Winds will diminish some into tonight to around 20-30 kts and
shift toward the southwest after midnight. Seas 3-6 feet. These
conditions will persist through the day Wednesday. Another
Small Craft Advisory will be needed for all coastal waters once
the Gale Warning has expired as a result.

Outlook...

Thursday...SCA conditions likely. West winds gusting around 25-30
kts. Seas 3 to 5 feet Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...SCA conditions possible with west-northwest
winds gusting 20-25 knots. Seas of 2-3 feet.

Sunday...SCA conditions possible with a SW wind around 25 knots and
rain showers.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-431.
     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Guzzo
NEAR TERM...AKL
SHORT TERM...Guzzo
LONG TERM...Guzzo
AVIATION...AKL/Guzzo
MARINE...AKL/Guzzo