885
FXUS65 KPIH 300641
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1241 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers across southeast Idaho today.

- More precipitation coming through the rest of the week.

- Much cooler temperatures for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

A cold front slipped through the region early this morning. We will
have widespread showers across much of southeast Idaho behind the
front through much of the day today. Meanwhile, there will be some
clearing across the Snake Plain into central Idaho where we will see
isolated to scattered thunderstorms redevelop this afternoon. In
terms of rainfall amounts through 00Z, looking at up to an
additional 0.25 inches across the southeast highlands with 0.10
inches or less elsewhere. Temps today will be noticeably cooler with
most communities seeing highs in the 60s today.

The overall pattern remains fairly active with another weak system
passing through the region tonight. Expect another round of
scattered showers especially overnight. Additional rainfall amounts
tonight look light, generally a tenth of an inch or less.

Expect isolated to scattered showers once again on Wednesday,
especially in the afternoon if we see some clearing. The models are
really keying on a more organized batch of showers moving through
southwest Idaho into the central mountains. Once again, additional
rainfall amounts look light generally less than a tenth of an inch.
Temps in the central amounts will generally be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s, but the rest of central and east Idaho will see temps in
the upper 60s to near 70 for highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025

We really don`t too much of a break in the chance of showers and
potential storms through the rest of the week. While we will be
"in between" lows Wednesday, there is still some chance mainly
over the mountains. The pattern for the rest of the week and
into next weekend will be showing a split flow pattern over the
western U.S. This means as each storm moves inland, we will the
pattern splitting with one or more closed lows developing
somewhere over the West. While this type of pattern has a bit
more difficulty with predicting where these closed lows end up,
it will remain showery at this point...along with even colder
temperatures likely. Our current Blend of Models forecast has
highs only in the 50s down low and 30s/40s up in the mountains.
This means we will see some potential for snow falling for our
higher peaks and ranges. Welcome to October!!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1108 PM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Few changes made with the 06z TAF package...main ones were to
delay onset of the main period of rain/showers by another hour
tonight at most terminals, end the period at 11z for KSUN, and
massage cigs a bit lower Tuesday afternoon based on forecast
soundings. Have also added TEMPOs at KBYI and KPIH to capture a
2-3 hour burst of stronger W/SW winds with the approaching cold
front tonight. Overall cigs still appear to hold VFR tonight
into Tuesday with the main batch of moisture, then we watch for
isolated redevelopment of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening...especially if significant breaks in the clouds develop
during the early afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1239 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025

A cold front moved through the region this morning. Cooler
temps and higher humidities accompanied the front. Additional
rainfall is most likely across southeast Idaho where up to 0.25
inches is likely. Elsewhere expect isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Additional rainfall
amounts outside of southeast Idaho will likely be 0.10 inches or
less. Peak wind gusts this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon
will be 15 to 25 mph with the stronger gusts most likely near
ridges.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...01
FIRE WEATHER...13