795
FXUS65 KPIH 092313
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
413 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer conditions through Wednesday

- Pockets of fog and stratus through midweek

- Precipitation returns as early Thursday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1132 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

High pressure holds to start out this week, even with low
zipping by just our north. Higher clouds are expected, and maybe
an uptick in wind gusts here and there. We do expect some
pockets of stratus and fog. We saw it briefly in the Stanley
Basin and expect a repeat tonight, even as we see the leading
edge of the next low clipping the area. We will likely see more
tomorrow night, but maybe not fog due to some "mixing" of
airmasses overnight. Temperatures continue to climb a bit each
day, with a 3-8 degree jump Monday. Warmer spots likely push
into the upper 50s to mid 60s, including within the inversion
layer and where we fully mix out in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

We stay dry through Wednesday night based on the latest trends.
We would expect more pockets of fog and low clouds Tuesday night
as high pressure holds in place. Temperatures remain warm
through at least Thursday with more 60s expected for afternoon
highs. Current trends have held with some potential for
precipitation by Thursday and continuing into next weekend.
There might a little more evidence in the models and ensembles
of the next overall low to come across Idaho in multiple rounds
vs a more consolidated push heading into the weekend. This lends
itself to the idea of the first round coming Thursday instead
of holding off until Friday or Saturday. Once the next storm and
pattern change happens, we will be right back to seeing highs
in the 40s down low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

No serious forecast issues, with SKC-SCT at FL200 or nearly
everywhere, and even there it should stay above 9000ft AGL. VSBY
should stay unlimited; however, at KIDA there is an extended
period in the morning hours where the probability of marginal
VFR for VSBY lingers between 2 and 5 percent. So this should be
monitored, but still the best forecast right now is for
unlimited VSBY.

Wind is basically downslope in the Snake River plain/eastern
Magic Valley even now, with north at KIDA, northeast at KPIH,
and east northeast at KBYI. For a change from the past couple of
days, an upslope/up valley wind, still light, should develop in
the mid-afternoon for these three airdromes.

Slope-valley wind will also prevail at KSUN in its usual
method, although light enough where some periods it will be more
light and variable. Finally, at KDIJ some brief east-southeast
downslope overnight is mostly overshadowed by varible wind.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Messick