


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
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864 FXUS65 KPIH 181122 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 522 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm Sunday with 60s returning for some areas! - Our next fast-moving, generally low-impact storm system is expected to bring rain and snow showers, along with breezy conditions, Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Dry and mostly clear/sunny conditions are expected today, with afternoon high temperatures generally running about 50 to 60 degrees. Precipitation with our next approaching storm system should hold off until mid- to late-morning Sunday across the Central Mountain region, overspreading the rest of the forecast area during the afternoon. A quick review of overnight guidance suggests winds continue to trend slightly higher/breezier with this system, but precipitation amounts instead of continuing to trend drier have increased just a bit. More below. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 117 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025 We are expecting a quick hitting storm system Sunday and Sunday night. For lower elevations, the bigger impacts may come from wind. It isn`t looking strong enough for any type of headlines, but certainly should be pretty gusty out there. The bulk of the moisture falls in the Sawtooths and surrounding ranges, as well as the eastern highlands. The latest precipitation totals add quite a bit in the Sawtooths/Stanley area, and pushes amounts into the 0.25-0.50" range. That is actually pushing the top end of the probability forecasts from WPC and Blend of Models. For the eastern highlands, we are looking at 0.15-0.40" officially. The high end of the probability forecasts is double that, while the low end shows barely a tenth of an inch along the Wyoming border. Given how quickly this storm is moving through, we can see where the official forecast comes down a bit, but still some decent moisture headed our way. We are expecting a pretty decent break until the end of next week. Our Blend of Models wants to bring in precipitation Friday over western portions of our forecast area, but it may indeed hold off until later in the weekend. After seeing highs dip back down into the 50s where most of the population lives, we will be back into the 60s ahead of next weekend`s storm. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 519 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Dry, mostly clear/sunny, VFR conditions with winds generally under 10kts are expected across southeast Idaho today and tonight, with no strong indications of additional fog or low stratus concerns across the guidance (low-levels trending drier). High-level clouds may start to increase toward the very end of the 12z TAF period, and high-res models support the leading edge of precipitation associated with our next system approaching KSUN between 16-19z/10am-1pm Sunday, just beyond their current TAF. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025 After dry and mostly clear/sunny conditions today with drier afternoon humidity values, our next fast-moving storm system will bring rain and snow showers across the region from Sunday morning through Monday morning. Winds with this system continue to trend slightly stronger for Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, with many areas seeing gusts of 25 to 35 MPH (40 MPH over the Arco Desert region). Meanwhile, precipitation amounts instead of continuing to trend drier have increased just a bit, with wetting rain/snow looking especially likely across Zone 475, northern Zone 422, and along the immediate WY border corridor from Caribou County north into the Island Park region. Dry weather returns from Monday afternoon through much of the rest of the coming week behind this system. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM...Keyes AVIATION...01 FIRE WEATHER...01