170
FXUS65 KPIH 241817
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1117 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Stronger winds this afternoon especially across higher
  elevations of the central mountains and Snake Plain/Magic
  Valley

- Quick round of showers through this evening with mostly light
  snow in the mountains

- Unsettled pattern ahead and the potential for much colder
  temperatures late in the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 102 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

We have a quick hitter swinging through this evening, bringing
more wind than anything else. There will be some light
precipitation coming with this, mainly in the form of snow
showers across the mountains. We COULD see a few light showers
across lower elevations, but chances are low especially for
anything measurable. The bulk of the moisture is across the
Sawtooths and surrounding mountains, and the Tetons/Big
Holes/Sawtell Peak area. There is a 30-60% chance of exceeding
0.20" across the Sawtooths and 35-65% chance of exceeding that
across mainly areas adjacent to the Tetons and Yellowstone. That
equates to just a couple of inches of snow with locally higher
amounts. Snow levels peak at 5000-6500 ft ahead of the colder
air arriving. The low end of the snow level range does indicate
we could see a mix or some snowflakes at lowest elevations...but
nothing significant or at pass level. Now, getting to the
wind...we should see that pick later this morning and last
through mid evening before things quickly shut down. Many areas
will see gusts 25-35 mph. We will see gusts hitting 35-50 mph
across portions of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley, especially
if we can get stronger mixing going this afternoon. We currently
have a WIND ADVISORY in place for the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley, and will leave it alone. The wind forecast overall did
come down a bit since Sunday, but not enough to make any
changes. We are dry most of Tuesday, with the next round quickly
moving into the central mountains and eastern highlands
tomorrow night. Before cooler air filters in later today, highs
will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s across valley locations.
Tomorrow will see highs 5-10 degrees cooler with low 40s only
forecast across the Magic Valley and south toward the Utah
border.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Sun Nov 23 2025

Shallow upper ridge is in place for through Thanksgiving Day,
There is still some expectation for weak energy to overtop the
ridge especially Wednesday and Thanksgiving for light
precipitation mainly higher elevations. Travel impacts should be
minimal, if any for these days. Ensembles diverge on details
for the remainder of the forecast period, but the general tone
remains similar to previous days. Incoming PacNW shortwave dives
south through the western states Friday into Saturday,
developing a deep trough across the Intermountain West for the
weekend. Showers become more widespread Friday and Saturday,
with potential for light snowfall to reach valley floors by late
Saturday. What could be the coldest air mass of the season so
far looks possible for Sunday into early next week. There is
still a lot of spread in the ensembles, and significant
differences in the depth of the trough via the ensemble
clusters. Thus there is still a lot of potential for change this
far out in the forecast. As of now, the probabilistic chance of
forecast highs BELOW freezing for lower elevations Sunday and
Monday are roughly 15-35% for most lower elevation areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

Right on cue, winds have begun to increase across the Snake
Plain impacting KIDA and KPIH with gusts in the 25-35 kt range.
Winds will continue to be breezy, to a lesser extent, at KDIJ,
KBYI and KSUN through the rest of the daylight hours as a
frontal boundary moves through the region. Could see some light
showers over the next few hours but these look to be pretty
isolated but VCSH remains in place nevertheless. Winds will
begin to taper off later this evening and especially into the
overnight as a cooler airmass moves into the area for tomorrow.
VFR CIGs are mostly expected through the period but some very
brief MVFR CIGs can`t be ruled out especially in and around any
showers.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...McKaughan