740
FXUS65 KPSR 040457
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
957 PM MST Mon Nov 3 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil weather will prevail across the Desert Southwest
  this week.

- High temperatures across the lower deserts are expected to
  slowly cool from around 90 degrees early this week into the mid
  80s by the end of this week with overnight lows remaining in the
  mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another warm and dry afternoon/evening is ongoing across our
region. Latest sfc observations indicate temperatures have risen
into the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints currently in the mid 30s.
The only difference from yesterday is the presence of high cirrus
clouds which are streaming into the area due to a weak shortwave
trough which is progressing through the Intermountain West. These
clouds will gradually diminish in coverage from W to E as we head
into Tuesday morning. With dry air in place, overnight lows should
once again fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Through the middle of this week, the upper-lvl pattern is not
expected to change much as low amplitude ridging extends over the
western U.S and quasi-zonal flow aloft persists over the Desert
Southwest. H5 heights will remain stable through Wednesday ranging
between 586-588dm, or well into the 90th percentile of climatology.
This will result in afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s
across the lower deserts which is 5-8 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model guidance remains in good agreement showing a large but
weakening Pacific low pressure system tracking across the Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Rockies Wednesday into Thursday. For
our region, it will help to suppress the ridge centered to our
southeast, lowering H5 heights to 582-585dm starting Thursday. The
trough will also help to bring temperatures down by Thursday with
highs dropping more into the mid 80s across the lower deserts.
Quasi-zonal dry westerly flow will then continue into the weekend
with temperatures remaining stable at 3-6 degrees above normal.
Expect mostly clear skies through the period. We may eventually
see a brief 1-2 days of shortwave ridging move into our region for
Sunday and/or Monday. This should boost temperatures more into
the mid to upper 80s again with the chances of reaching 90 degrees
currently at 20-30%. Longer range guidance then shows some sort
of trough potentially approaching our region from the west by the
middle of next week, but so far it looks to be fairly dry and may
not bring any rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0455Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are expected during the period.
Winds will continue to exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with
speeds aob 7 kts along with extended periods of variable to calm
conditions. The usual W`rly shift for metro Phoenix terminals
does not appear certain at this time with directions potentially
maintaining an E`rly component through much of Tuesday afternoon
and evening. However, if this W`rly shift to be seen, it would be
brief and most likely occur at KIWA. High cloud coverage will
gradually diminish, giving way to clear skies for most of the
second half of the forecast window.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions with above normal temperatures will
prevail this week. Afternoon minRHs will mostly range between
10-15% through mid-week before improving to around 15-20% later in
the week. Overnight recoveries will also improve slightly from
20-40% currently to 30-50% by midweek. A few dry weather systems
passing north of the region may temporarily elevate winds over the
AZ high terrain but are not expected to present any fire weather
concerns. Otherwise, winds will follow diurnal tendencies with
occasional afternoon gusts into the upper teens.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno/Kuhlman