429
FXUS65 KPSR 160916
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
216 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The first of at least two weather systems this week will finish
  moving through the region later today bringing light to
  moderate rain showers for portions of Arizona, but limited
  overall impacts.

- A second large weather system will bring the next opportunity
  for rain from late Monday through early Wednesday.

- Starting today, high temperatures will drop to below normal and
  stay there for all of the coming week. The coolest temperatures
  with readings at least 10 degrees below normal are expected
  during the middle of the week.


&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
The slow moving upper level low is finally making some eastward
progress with the low center currently moving onshore near Los
Angeles and a trailing vort max now moving through southern
California. A somewhat defined cold front is also making its way
across southwest Arizona with noticeably drier air behind the
front. Forced ascent ahead approaching vort max and along the
advancing cold front is allowing for some scattered shower
activity affecting portions of south-central Arizona, but the
coverage remains quite sparse. As the cold front and the vort max
continues to move eastward, we anticipate more widespread shower
development across Maricopa and Pinal Counties shortly before
sunrise through around mid morning bringing the best shot for
rainfall across the Phoenix area. Some areas may miss out on the
rain, but many locations should see between 0.1-0.25" this morning
to upwards of 0.5-0.75" in a few spots. The higher rainfall
amounts should occur with any banding of moderate showers or
embedded thunderstorms. CAMs then show the broken line of showers
moving through Gila County later this morning and early afternoon
before mostly diminishing mid to late afternoon.

Today will also bring in our first real taste of fall temperatures
with highs only on the lower 70s across the lower deserts. By this
evening, any energy from the system will have exited well to our
northeast with dry conditions expected tonight into at least the
first part of Monday. However, this break in the weather is
expected to be quite short as the next weather system will quickly
be moving in from the northwest reaching central California by
Monday afternoon. As this next trough approaches the region from
the northwest on Monday, we will again see some moisture advection
from the southwest but PWATs will be a good deal lower than this
weekend`s system. We may even begin to see some isolated to
scattered shower activity develop as early as Monday afternoon as
southwesterly upslope low level flow increases as well as some
weak jet forced ascent starting to come into play across southern
and central Arizona.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
Models remain in good agreement showing the next weather system
moving into our region on Tuesday with the low center moving
through southern California and then through Arizona as it weakens
on Wednesday. The best forcing and moisture is likely to align
across central Arizona on Tuesday bringing fairly widespread
shower activity with chances for embedded thunder. The more
direct hit from this weather system is likely to bring higher
rainfall amounts to southern and central Arizona than this
weekend`s system with QPF amounts averaging around 0.5" for
Phoenix to as high as 0.75-1.00" for higher terrain areas north
and east of Phoenix. The western lower deserts of southeast
California and southwest Arizona will mostly miss out on the best
rain this time with amounts generally less than a tenth of an
inch. The slow progression of the low should continue to bring
some residual shower activity across central and eastern Arizona
into Wednesday before eventually coming to an end at some point
later Wednesday or Wednesday night as the low moves to the
northeast of the region.

Even cooler air is anticipated starting Wednesday as the second
system will have a colder source region. Forecast highs begin to
lower on Tuesday with readings potentially only in the mid 60s
before bottoming in the lower 60s on Wednesday and/or Thursday.
These well below normal temperatures should also translate to
overnight lows well into the 40s across the lower deserts starting
Wednesday night.

The active weather pattern may bring a third weather system at
some point later in the week or the weekend, but there is much
more uncertainty with the track of this potential third trough.
Model trends over the past 24-48 hours have been leaning more
toward a progressive system which may not end up bringing much
additional rainfall. The well below normal temperatures during the
middle part of the week should moderate by next weekend with the
latest NBM showing readings closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concerns during the TAF period remain VFR CIGS
(5-7 kft AGL) through Sunday morning, a period of SHRA activity
focused along a front, and lower than usual confidence on wind
directions until showers move out of the area mid-late Sunday
morning. A more pronounced W`rly component will take hold with
perhaps a few gusts around 15-20 kts as a line of showers moves
through the PHX airspace between 11-16Z. Even though chances for
MVFR CIGs exist (10-25%) in conjunction with any SHRA activity,
confidence is too low to include in the TAF. An isolated TS cannot
be ruled out as the line of showers moves through Sunday morning.
After SHRA activity clears the airspace, winds will maintain a SW
component through the afternoon, eventually relax during the
evening and become light (AOB 5 kts) SE or VRB Sunday night.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The primary aviation weather concern will be stronger than usual
and at times gusty SW/W winds under periods of SCT-BKN mid and
high clouds. Another period of VCSH conditions cannot be
completely ruled out Sunday morning, but confidence is too low to
include in the TAF. Winds may become variable for several hours
overnight into early Sunday morning, though directions should
settle back out of the SW/W later in the morning. Gusts to 15-20
kts may become common Sunday during the afternoon, especially at
KBLH, then winds should relax AOB 10 kts at both terminals Sunday
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weather system will continue to move through the region today
bringing cooler temperatures, increased humidities, and shower
activity across the eastern districts. A few isolated
thunderstorms will be possible for the eastern districts
producing isolated heavier rainfall amounts. Monday will bring
quieter weather conditions, but still with a chance of isolated
showers. Minimum humidity values will range between 40-70%
areawide through Monday with good to excellent overnight
recoveries. Locally gusty winds upwards of 25 mph will be possible
through this afternoon with overall light winds tonight and
Monday. The active weather will continue for a good portion of the
upcoming week with another weather system affecting the area
Tuesday into Wednesday and another potentially later in the week.
Expect below normal temperatures and elevated humidities to last
all week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman