150
FXUS65 KPSR 061058
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
358 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally quiet conditions will continue into next week.

- Temperatures will warm over the weekend and through the upcoming
  workweek, likely reaching 8 to 12 degrees above daily normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Early this morning upper level water vapor satellite imagery reveals
a longwave trough stretching from Wisconsin back down into the
central Baja peninsula along with broad ridging over the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Both of these features will continue to slowly
migrate eastward over the next couple of days. This will result in
gradually rising H5 heights, which in turn will result in a
gradual warming trend and continued dry and tranquil conditions.
Temperatures (both morning lows and afternoon highs) are
forecasted to be around a degree or two warmer than they were
yesterday, which is right around or slightly above normal for this
time of year. Temperatures will continue to warm on Sunday and go
above normal region wide. On Sunday, afternoon high temperatures
are forecasted to be in the low to mid 70s across the lower
deserts and in the mid to upper 60s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK/...
The ridge in the eastern Pacific will stall just off the west coast
for the first half of next week keeping much of western CONUS under
the influence of its eastern flank. The ride will be anonymously
strong for this time of year with H5 heights fluctuating between
586-590 dm, for the core, (H5 heights of 582-585 dm over the
southern half of Arizona and southeastern California) through the
first half of the week. Multiple shortwaves will be moving from
the Pacific NW/southern British Columbia down into the Plains that
will temporally dampen the ridge, but, it will quickly rebound.
If any of these shortwaves are able to push into the Desert
Southwest at all, it would briefly stall our warming trend for a
day. Nevertheless, afternoon high temperatures, region wide, will
gradually warm to around 8-10 degrees above normal by the middle
of next week. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to go be
in the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the lower
deserts and in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the higher terrain.

By the end of next week and heading into next weekend, the ridge
will finally push onshore with the center of the ridge eventually
moving over the Desert Southwest. The ridge will be weakening as it
move onshore, however, with it moving directly overhead temperatures
will continue to gradually warm through at least the end of next
week. H5 heights will rise into the 583-586 dm range by the end of
next week. This will result in afternoon high temperatures 10-12
degrees above normal and morning low temperatures 6-8 degrees above
normal. For the end of next week, afternoon high temperatures are
forecasted to be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the
lower deserts and in the low to mid 70s across the higher terrain.
Morning lows are forecasted to be in the 50s across the lower
deserts and in the 40s across the higher terrain. Additionally with
the ridge dominating the region, dry and tranquil conditions will
continue through next week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under clear skies expected throughout
the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will continue to exhibit
light diurnal tendencies along with extended periods of variable
to calm conditions, especially during diurnal transitions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will prevail across the region through next week.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today and will
gradually warm through next week. By the end of next week,
temperatures will be 10-12 degrees above normal. Winds will be
light and tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies.
Humidities over the next week will stay elevated with MinRHs
mostly ranging between 20-35% much of the time, with good to very
good overnight recoveries.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Berislavich/Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich