045
FXUS65 KPUB 062020
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
220 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and cloudy east of the mountains Tuesday with some
  overnight/early morning showers, drizzle, and fog along the
  east slopes and adjacent plains in the morning, otherwise warm
  and dry out west.

- Warming and drying trend through the rest of the week.

- Uncertainty increases closer to this weekend, with the
  possibility of better moisture moving into our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Upper trough to our NW will weaken as it shears out to our
northeast tonight and Tue. As the southern extension of it
glances by, and southern stream energy in southwest flow passes
to our south, southern CO comes under the influence of weak
overrunning within a saturated layer. Stratus will fill in and
or thicken again across the plains this evening and overnight,
and lift induced showers will overspread the southeast plains
through early Tuesday morning. There is some elevated CAPE aloft
if th overrunning can break the cap, so some embedded thunder
across our southern tier counties is not out of the question,
especially across Baca and Las Animas counties. Brief moderate
to heavy rainfall and lightning would be the primary risks.
Meanwhile, upslope induced showers/drizzle and fog will be
possible along the mountain plains interface to the north of our
southern tier counties. QPF amounts will remain light in these
areas. Temperatures will remain cool again with persistent
cloud cover lingering across the plains most of the day, though
some breaks are likely along the north slopes of the Raton Ridge
as flow becomes more southerly in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, the western mountains will be warmer and drier with
breezy afternoon winds.  Moisture increasing from the south may be
sufficient for some isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across the southern mountains but these should weaken
quickly as they push off into the cooler airmass east of the
mountains.  Have gone closer to the cooler NBM members and guidance
for highs. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025


Wednesday Onwards...

High pressure and upper-level ridging will continue building in over
our region through the latter half of the week. Temperatures will
continue to increase, with highs climbing back into the 70s-80s,
while most of the area remains dry aside from our western mountains.
Main uncertainty in the long term will be the behavior of the
tropical cyclone remnants from the southern Pacific. Long-term
models disagree on whether to eject the main circulation further
west or carry the moisture into our region through the jet. Models
diverge greatly on this after about Thursday-Friday, but it is
possible that at least some of the moisture will make its way
towards us, bringing wetter and potentially cooler conditions later
this weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail at KCOS through the 24 hour
period with a brief rise into MVFR conditions possible in the
21-02z timeframe. KPUB will remain MVFR through the period. A
round of -SHRA -DZ and BR will be possible overnight as cigs
drop for KCOS back into the IFR category and a solid low end
MVFR deck settles in over KPUB. These conditions will persist
into Thursday morning with cigs rising again towards 18z.

KALS will remain VFR with breezy southwest winds 15-25 kts
during the afternoon. Winds will weaken and we could see more
cloud cover spread in overnight into early Thursday morning.
These clouds should remain VFR, but if sufficient moisture can
spread in from the south, there could be some patchy MVFR clouds
toward dawn. Odds of this looks low at this point so will
maintain VFR conditions with light winds through the 24 hour TAF
period. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT