


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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290 FXUS65 KPUB 151125 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 525 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the high country and our high mountain valleys today, along with a continued risk for life threatening flooding over the San Juans. - For the plains, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with warmer than normal temperatures and breezy southerly winds. - Strong to severe thunderstorms possible eastern plains on Thursday but finally drying out across the mountains and valleys. - Dry and cooler with frosts and freezes possible across portions of the I-25 corridor and SE plains Sat and Sun mornings. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 321 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Currently.. Convection continues over the San Juans this morning, with Wolf Creek Pass reporting 37/37 and thundersnow as of 2 AM. Satellite imagery still shows the low out to our west over the California/Nevada border, with strong, moist southwest flow out ahead of it this morning. Gusty southerly and southwesterly winds have persisted through the overnight hours across much of the are, with Trinidad still reporting 35 mph winds as of 2 AM. Satellite imagery shows mountain wave clouds across much of our eastern mountains. Today and Tonight.. Models bring the low into the Great Basin throughout the day today, allowing persistent, moist, southwesterly flow to continue across the region as the trough axis approaches. Instability will be increasing across the high country as low-level southerly flow ahead of the low increases, with 500 to 1000 J/Kg of CAPE forecast over our southwest mountains this afternoon. Around 70kt of bulk shear is also forecast for this region this afternoon and this evening, which will certainly be sufficient to support strong to severe thunderstorm development over the high country, especially over our southwest mountains. Steep lapse rates will support the potential for hail, along with another round of heavy rain and flash flooding potential for our southwest mountains. Forecast hodographs also depict enough low-level turning to at least raise an eye-brow or two at a possible tornado threat across our southern border today, especially through the southern San Luis Valley and across our southern mountains. Flooding still remains a primary concern for the San Juans and the Rio Grande Valley given the antecedent conditions. Though storms will be very fast moving today, training will still be a concern over areas that have already had over 8 inches of rain since this past weekend. Models consistently show that storms should line out midway through the event, which will also lend itself to a damaging wind threat for the San Luis Valley and the eastern mountains. SPC has all of our mountains outlined for a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with 2% tornado risk over our southwest, and WPC has the same area outlined for an excessive rainfall risk as well. An active day of hazardous weather is expected for the high country to say the least. Hikers, campers, and anyone outdoors in the high country today needs to be weather aware and capable of receiving warnings. A new Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the San Juans and the Rio Grande Valley, which will remain in effect through midnight tonight. On the plains, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible, though the chances for severe weather will be far lower. Today will be the warmest day of the forecast period, as strong downsloping and southwesterly flow aloft continues while the trough approaches from the west. Temperatures are likely to climb well into the mid 80s on the plains, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and only isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms. Breezy southerly and southwesterly winds are likely, with gusts to 40 mph expected over our southern and eastern plains. Drier air starts to make its way into the high country tonight (a much welcomed relief for some areas to be sure..) which will allow for cooler overnight temperatures for our mountain locations. The San Luis Valley looks to remain in the 40s for overnight lows once again though, and the plains will likely stay warm as well thanks to continued downsloping winds as the low continues to push off towards northwest Colorado tonight. Much of our plains looks to stay in the upper 40s and 50s once again by the early morning hours of Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 321 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The Great Basin upper low will lift northeastward into WY/MT on Thursday with trailing energy dropping southward into UT during the afternoon. This will put southern CO under strong south to southwesterly flow aloft. A diffuse dry line/surface trough axis will set up across the eastern plains with dew points in the mid 50 across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties during the afternoon. Afternoon CAPE of up to 1000 J/kg and deep layer shears around 50 kts will be in place for a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop Thursday afternoon east of a line from roughly La Junta to Kim. Straight line hodographs suggest the potential for splitting supercells with gusty winds and large hail the primary risks. Hodographs do become a bit more curved in the low levels near the eastern border in the evening but with high LCLs, any tornado threat looks pretty low for now. West of the dry line it will be breezy to windy and dry, though moist fuels out west will likely not be receptive to fire across the mountains and valleys. One area of concern is Pueblo, southern El Paso and Huerfano counties where spotty critical fire weather conditions will be possible Thursday afternoon. Winds seem more marginal at this point, but this will need to be monitored closely. Thunderstorms should push east into KS by midnight. A cold front will drop through the plains Thursday evening and with clear skies, it will be a crisp morning on Fri, especially across the mountains and valleys where winds are more likely to decouple and temperatures dip into the 20s and even teens. Northerly winds should keep lows mainly in the 40s across the plains but will need to keep a close eye on the Palmer Divide where a frost will be possible if winds decouple quickly enough. Temperatures will be cooler for Friday into the weekend with the potential for frost or a light freeze across the I-25 corridor and portions of the southeast plains both Saturday and Sunday mornings. The Palmer and perhaps the Raton ridges could see some patchy frost or a light freeze Saturday morning, with NBM probabilities up to 30 percent. However, this seems to stay confined to the higher elevations near the mountains. Odds increase Sunday morning for a frost or freeze with probabilities of 30-50% across most of the Southeast plains except Prowers and Baca counties. Frost or freeze highlights will need to be considered both nights, but especially Sat night/Sun morning. Otherwise, it will remain dry across the region. Temperatures warm for Sun then drop back below normal again early next week as a messy pattern of hard to time troughs move through the region bringing the possibility of showers to the mountains and cooler temperatures for all areas. Operational GFS seems the outlier of the longer range models as it is slower and more amplified with the next trough as it phases northern and southern stream energy across the western U.S. and moves it across CO Mon Night/Tue. EC and Canadian favor a faster northern stream trough with less phasing. GEFS seems to support the EC, EPS and Canadian suite which suggests a quicker system, and more of a cool down for the middle of next week. So we may be flirting with more frosts and light freezes for the southeast plains, and a more gradual influx of Pacific moisture from a southern stream upper low by mid week. -KT && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 524 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the morning hours, with MFR visibilities in showers and thunderstorms possible this evening, mainly at KCOS. Southerly winds with gusts to 30kt are likely at both stations, with gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds also possible near both stations this evening. Thunderstorms will also be possible at KPUB this evening, though chances were too low (less than 30%) to include in the TAF at this time. For KALS..VFR conditions are likely through the morning hours, though showers will continue to be likely in the vicinity as convection pushes into the terrain surrounding the terminal. Lower ceilings and thunderstorms on station will be more likely (more than 30%) this evening, especially from 23Z through 05Z. Thunderstorm wind gusts of 45kt will be possible, along with brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities if storms move over station. Conditions are likely to improve after 09Z Thursday morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for COZ067-068. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH/KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...EHR