772
FXUS65 KPUB 181014
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild today with less wind

- Dry, quiet weather expected tomorrow, with continued warmer than
  normal temperatures.

- Increasing chances for higher impact winter system possible
  for the Thursday into Friday timeframe, with snow for the high
  country and mainly rain forecast for the plains at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Southern Colorado will sit in between systems today as the next
upper low drops southward off the southern CA coast.  Southwest flow
aloft will spread waves of mid and high level cloudiness over the
region through tonight, and possibly a few higher elevation rain and
snow showers into the Continental Divide/SW mountains late tonight,
though little to no accumulation is expected. Otherwise, today will
be dry and mild with light winds except across the higher mountains
where southwesterly winds will increase later tonight with gusts up
to 25-30 mph.

High temperatures today will top out in the 60s across the plains,
50s for the valleys and 30s and 40s for the higher mountains.  Lows
tonight will be above normal given some increasing cloud cover and
westerly surface winds into a lee side surface low. Low temperatures
will drop into the 30s across the plains, around 40 for the
downslope regions along the lower eastern slopes of the southeast
mountains, and teens and 20s across the mountains and interior
valleys. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Wednesday..

Above normal temperatures and quiet weather are expected for
Wednesday, as our incoming low digs into southern California. Models
bring the system onshore throughout the early morning hours
tomorrow, turning our flow aloft more southwesterly. By evening
time, the system still doesn`t look to have moved much, which will
keep precip chances mostly concentrated over our far southwest
mountains throughout the day and into the early evening hours. Snow
amounts over the San Juans for tomorrow will be less than an inch of
new snow, with higher amounts to come on Thursday and Friday. Other
areas will remain dry for tomorrow, with above normal temperatures.
Daytime highs look to warm into the 50s over our mountain valleys,
with upper 50s and low 60s for the Pikes Peak region, and mid to
upper 60s for the rest of the plains.

Wednesday Night Through Friday..

Models are still in agreement that chances for a significant precip
event and cooler temperatures are increasing for the Thursday and
Friday timeframe for southeast Colorado. That being said, we are
still seeing run-to-run and model-to-model inconsistencies that will
have impacts on the intricacies of the upcoming forecast. Both the
Canadian and GFS ensemble members are back to showing a mostly open
wave and negatively tilted trough axis inbound throughout Thursday.
Both models close the low back off over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle
region by early Friday morning. EC ensemble members show a similar
solution, but do not close the low back off until later Friday
morning over Kansas, and keep it weaker as well. The GFS is
currently showing the deepest system, with best chances for rain and
highest moisture content over the plains. Chances for moisture are
still increasing with this system as it draws nearer and remains on
track, with highest amount over our San Juans, and the Sangres. QPF
amounts of 0.3 to 0.8 inches are forecast for the Wednesday night
through Friday timeframe, with highest chances for rain and snow
coming in Thursday evening through Friday morning. Snow will be
heavy at times over the high country and over mountain passes,
especially for Wolf Creek and La Veta Pass. Highlights may be needed
during this timeframe, especially for the Sangres and the San Juans,
but due to model uncertainties, have decided to hold off for now.
Precipitation looks to fall mostly as rain on the plains with
current model solutions, though slight changes in timing, track, or
amplitude, may change this forecast quickly. At this time, a
changeover to snow is only expected over the Palmer Divide and the
Raton Mesa, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from late Thursday
night into Friday morning. There some outliers showing chances for
snow on the plains.. though again these solutions look to be
outliers for now. Daytime highs still look to warm into the 40s and
50s for Thursday and Friday.

Saturday Onwards..

Models hint at another low approaching through the beginning of next
week, though not much agreement is shown in its track. The GFS is
the only model that keeps it in play for precip chances for
southeast Colorado, and the EC keeps it all the way south of the New
Mexico border through Monday night. For now, our weekend looks to be
a bit of a lull between these two systems. Of course, if either
system speeds up or slows down, that could change, but for now, our
weekend looks to bring near to slightly warmer than normal
temperatures, and mainly dry, quiet weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025

Conditions will remain VFR over the next 24 hours with bouts of mid
and high level cloudiness at times.  Winds will follow diurnal
patterns with 10-15 kt speeds for KCOS and KPUB in the afternoon and
early evening before shifting out of the north to northwest and
becoming light overnight.  Winds at KALS will remain light and
variable. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT