290
FXUS65 KPUB 151125
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
525 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible across the high country
  and our high mountain valleys today, along with a continued
  risk for life threatening flooding over the San Juans.

- For the plains, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible, with warmer than normal temperatures and breezy
  southerly winds.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible eastern plains on Thursday
  but finally drying out across the mountains and valleys.

- Dry and cooler with frosts and freezes possible across portions
  of the I-25 corridor and SE plains Sat and Sun mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Currently..

Convection continues over the San Juans this morning, with Wolf
Creek Pass reporting 37/37 and thundersnow as of 2 AM. Satellite
imagery still shows the low out to our west over the
California/Nevada border, with strong, moist southwest flow out
ahead of it this morning. Gusty southerly and southwesterly winds
have persisted through the overnight hours across much of the are,
with Trinidad still reporting 35 mph winds as of 2 AM. Satellite
imagery shows mountain wave clouds across much of our eastern
mountains.

Today and Tonight..

Models bring the low into the Great Basin throughout the day today,
allowing persistent, moist, southwesterly flow to continue across
the region as the trough axis approaches. Instability will be
increasing across the high country as low-level southerly flow ahead
of the low increases, with 500 to 1000 J/Kg of CAPE forecast over
our southwest mountains this afternoon. Around 70kt of bulk shear is
also forecast for this region this afternoon and this evening, which
will certainly be sufficient to support strong to severe
thunderstorm development over the high country, especially over our
southwest mountains. Steep lapse rates will support the potential
for hail, along with another round of heavy rain and flash flooding
potential for our southwest mountains. Forecast hodographs also
depict enough low-level turning to at least raise an eye-brow or two
at a possible tornado threat across our southern border today,
especially through the southern San Luis Valley and across our
southern mountains. Flooding still remains a primary concern for the
San Juans and the Rio Grande Valley given the antecedent conditions.
Though storms will be very fast moving today, training will still be
a concern over areas that have already had over 8 inches of rain
since this past weekend. Models consistently show that storms should
line out midway through the event, which will also lend itself to a
damaging wind threat for the San Luis Valley and the eastern
mountains. SPC has all of our mountains outlined for a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms, with 2% tornado risk over our southwest,
and WPC has the same area outlined for an excessive rainfall risk as
well. An active day of hazardous weather is expected for the high
country to say the least. Hikers, campers, and anyone outdoors in
the high country today needs to be weather aware and capable of
receiving warnings. A new Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the
San Juans and the Rio Grande Valley, which will remain in effect
through midnight tonight.

On the plains, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
though the chances for severe weather will be far lower. Today will
be the warmest day of the forecast period, as strong downsloping and
southwesterly flow aloft continues while the trough approaches from
the west. Temperatures are likely to climb well into the mid 80s on
the plains, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and only
isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms. Breezy southerly and
southwesterly winds are likely, with gusts to 40 mph expected over
our southern and eastern plains. Drier air starts to make its way
into the high country tonight (a much welcomed relief for some areas
to be sure..) which will allow for cooler overnight temperatures for
our mountain locations. The San Luis Valley looks to remain in the
40s for overnight lows once again though, and the plains will likely
stay warm as well thanks to continued downsloping winds as the low
continues to push off towards northwest Colorado tonight. Much of
our plains looks to stay in the upper 40s and 50s once again by the
early morning hours of Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The Great Basin upper low will lift northeastward into WY/MT on
Thursday with trailing energy dropping southward into UT during
the afternoon. This will put southern CO under strong south to
southwesterly flow aloft. A diffuse dry line/surface trough axis
will set up across the eastern plains with dew points in the mid
50 across Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties during the
afternoon. Afternoon CAPE of up to 1000 J/kg and deep layer
shears around 50 kts will be in place for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms to develop Thursday afternoon east of a line from
roughly La Junta to Kim. Straight line hodographs suggest the
potential for splitting supercells with gusty winds and large
hail the primary risks. Hodographs do become a bit more curved
in the low levels near the eastern border in the evening but
with high LCLs, any tornado threat looks pretty low for now.
West of the dry line it will be breezy to windy and dry, though
moist fuels out west will likely not be receptive to fire across
the mountains and valleys. One area of concern is Pueblo,
southern El Paso and Huerfano counties where spotty critical
fire weather conditions will be possible Thursday afternoon.
Winds seem more marginal at this point, but this will need to be
monitored closely.

Thunderstorms should push east into KS by midnight. A cold
front will drop through the plains Thursday evening and with
clear skies, it will be a crisp morning on Fri, especially
across the mountains and valleys where winds are more likely to
decouple and temperatures dip into the 20s and even teens.
Northerly winds should keep lows mainly in the 40s across the
plains but will need to keep a close eye on the Palmer Divide
where a frost will be possible if winds decouple quickly enough.

Temperatures will be cooler for Friday into the weekend with the
potential for frost or a light freeze across the I-25 corridor and
portions of the southeast plains both Saturday and Sunday mornings.
The Palmer and perhaps the Raton ridges could see some patchy frost
or a light freeze Saturday morning, with NBM probabilities up to 30
percent. However, this seems to stay confined to the higher
elevations near the mountains. Odds increase Sunday morning for
a frost or freeze with probabilities of 30-50% across most of
the Southeast plains except Prowers and Baca counties. Frost or
freeze highlights will need to be considered both nights, but
especially Sat night/Sun morning. Otherwise, it will remain dry
across the region.

Temperatures warm for Sun then drop back below normal again
early next week as a messy pattern of hard to time troughs move
through the region bringing the possibility of showers to the
mountains and cooler temperatures for all areas. Operational GFS
seems the outlier of the longer range models as it is slower
and more amplified with the next trough as it phases northern
and southern stream energy across the western U.S. and moves it
across CO Mon Night/Tue. EC and Canadian favor a faster northern
stream trough with less phasing. GEFS seems to support the EC,
EPS and Canadian suite which suggests a quicker system, and more
of a cool down for the middle of next week. So we may be
flirting with more frosts and light freezes for the southeast
plains, and a more gradual influx of Pacific moisture from a
southern stream upper low by mid week. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of
the morning hours, with MFR visibilities in showers and
thunderstorms possible this evening, mainly at KCOS. Southerly winds
with gusts to 30kt are likely at both stations, with gusty and
erratic thunderstorm winds also possible near both stations this
evening. Thunderstorms will also be possible at KPUB this evening,
though chances were too low (less than 30%) to include in the TAF at
this time.

For KALS..VFR conditions are likely through the morning hours,
though showers will continue to be likely in the vicinity as
convection pushes into the terrain surrounding the terminal. Lower
ceilings and thunderstorms on station will be more likely (more than
30%) this evening, especially from 23Z through 05Z. Thunderstorm
wind gusts of 45kt will be possible, along with brief MVFR ceilings
and visibilities if storms move over station. Conditions are likely
to improve after 09Z Thursday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH/KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR