633
FXUS65 KPUB 022318
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
418 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather prevails for south central and southeastern
  Colorado tonight and tomorrow.

- Continued warm and dry through the extended period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Tonight: For Sunday night, quiet weather is expected for south
central and southeastern Colorado. Ridging will be in place over the
area, bringing increased subsidence. With the ridge in place, and no
strong flow, dry conditions are anticipated for overnight. The only
"major" weather feature will be a weak cold front pushing southward
late this evening from behind troughing far to the northeast. This
front will bring a brief and small uptick in winds this evening to
around 10 mph, but otherwise, fairly light and variable winds less
than that are expected. Beyond all that, mostly clear skies and mild
temperatures are anticipated for the region. Looking at
temperatures, despite the cold front, the bigger push of cold won`t
arrive until early tomorrow morning, so much of the area will stay
above seasonal values. Given that, the plains will fall into the mid
30s to low 40s, and the valleys and mountains into the mid 20s to
mid 30s, and

Tomorrow: Monday bring another quiet weather day to south central
and southeastern Colorado. While ridging will overall remain in
place, a minor shortwave will start to approach the region. With
only weak forcing from the approaching shortwave, only an increase
in mid to high level clouds is anticipated in response to the wave,
with dry conditions prevailing. As for winds, they will continue to
remain relatively light around 10 mph, though will be a bit breezier
along the mountains given the slight uptick in flow from the
approaching shortwave, with winds around 20-25 mph. Otherwise, mid
to high level clouds will increase throughout the day, with near to
above seasonal temperatures. The plains will hover around seasonal
values thanks to the cold front passage, with highs in the mid 50s
to mid 60s. The valleys and mountains will be slightly above
seasonal values, with the valleys in the 60s, and the mountains in
the 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

No changes to the long term, with continued good model and
ensemble agreement.

Monday night through Wednesday...the upper shortwave will
continue to track northeast Monday night, with cloud cover
dissipating by morning. A return to flat westerly flow is
forecast across Colorado on Tuesday. Enhanced mixing will help
boost temperatures back through the 70s to near 80 across the
Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely along the
I-25 corridor in gap wind prone areas Tuesday afternoon. A weak
frontal boundary will back westward across the Plains Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Afternoon highs Wednesday look to
be about 10 degrees cooler than those seen on Tuesday, but still
in the mid to upper 60s across the Plains.

Thursday through Sunday...two upper waves are forecast to drop
southeast from the Northern Rockies into the Missouri Valley,
one Thursday and a second on Saturday. Both of these systems
look to track north of Colorado and have limited impacts across
the region. Model guidance continues to limit precipitation
chances across the Central Mountains, with very low pops (around
10 percent) on Thursday, and again on Saturday. QPF amounts
would support a dusting of snow north of Cottonwood Pass, at
best with each system. Winds could be gusty both days across the
Plains, and model guidance continues to back off on how
widespread elevated fire weather conditions may be. Overall, gap
wind prone areas along the I-25 corridor have the best
opportunity at elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures
look to remain warm Thursday and Friday with mostly 60s and 70s
for the lower elevations. A cold front may knock a few degrees
from highs on Saturday and Sunday.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 418 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB
and KALS. Weak cold front drops south across the eastern plains
this evening, producing a slight increase in northerly winds for
KCOS and KPUB. Otherwise, gradually increasing high level
cloudiness tomorrow, with diurnal winds increasing into the
10-15 kt range by the afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE