274
FXUS65 KPUB 070524
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and cloudy east of the mountains Tuesday with some
  overnight/early morning showers, drizzle, and fog along the
  east slopes and adjacent plains in the morning, otherwise warm
  and dry out west.

- Warming and drying trend through the rest of the week.

- Uncertainty increases closer to this weekend, with the
  possibility of better moisture moving into our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Upper trough to our NW will weaken as it shears out to our
northeast tonight and Tue. As the southern extension of it
glances by, and southern stream energy in southwest flow passes
to our south, southern CO comes under the influence of weak
overrunning within a saturated layer. Stratus will fill in and
or thicken again across the plains this evening and overnight,
and lift induced showers will overspread the southeast plains
through early Tuesday morning. There is some elevated CAPE aloft
if th overrunning can break the cap, so some embedded thunder
across our southern tier counties is not out of the question,
especially across Baca and Las Animas counties. Brief moderate
to heavy rainfall and lightning would be the primary risks.
Meanwhile, upslope induced showers/drizzle and fog will be
possible along the mountain plains interface to the north of our
southern tier counties. QPF amounts will remain light in these
areas. Temperatures will remain cool again with persistent
cloud cover lingering across the plains most of the day, though
some breaks are likely along the north slopes of the Raton Ridge
as flow becomes more southerly in the afternoon.

Meanwhile, the western mountains will be warmer and drier with
breezy afternoon winds.  Moisture increasing from the south may be
sufficient for some isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across the southern mountains but these should weaken
quickly as they push off into the cooler airmass east of the
mountains.  Have gone closer to the cooler NBM members and guidance
for highs. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025


Wednesday Onwards...

High pressure and upper-level ridging will continue building in over
our region through the latter half of the week. Temperatures will
continue to increase, with highs climbing back into the 70s-80s,
while most of the area remains dry aside from our western mountains.
Main uncertainty in the long term will be the behavior of the
tropical cyclone remnants from the southern Pacific. Long-term
models disagree on whether to eject the main circulation further
west or carry the moisture into our region through the jet. Models
diverge greatly on this after about Thursday-Friday, but it is
possible that at least some of the moisture will make its way
towards us, bringing wetter and potentially cooler conditions later
this weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..MVFR and IFR ceilings and visibilities are
expected at both stations through much of the forecast period, as
easterly upslope continues across the region. LIFR conditions in
mist and low cloud are likely from 10Z through 15Z early Tuesday
morning at KCOS. VFR conditions will be possible for several hours
Tuesday afternoon at both stations, mainly from 19Z through 01 at
KPUB, and from around 21Z through 04Z at KCOS, before MVFR and IFR
ceilings move back in through the overnight hours into Wednesday
morning.

For KALS..VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with
scattered mid and upper-level cloud decks. Southwest winds gusting
to 22kt will be possible through the daytime hours, with continued
stronger southerly winds into the evening and overnight hours as
well.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR