


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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524 FXUS65 KPUB 162008 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 208 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Brief window of possibility for severe thunderstorms across the far southeast plains this evening. - Frost Advisory for Northern El Paso County tonight from 3 AM until 9 AM. Frost possible across much of the eastern plains early Sunday morning as well. - Mainly dry and mild for much of the extended period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Currently...Upper low centered over WY and southern MT was producing brisk south-southwest flow across the forecast area today and a few lingering showers and storms near the KS border. There have been some spotty critical fire weather conditions due to low RH levels and gusty winds, but rainfall from the previous day/night has helped to mitigate issues at least in the near-term. Temps as of 1 PM have warmed into the 60s for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for the plains. Tonight...Upper low to the north is expected to eject to the north- northeast across MT and the Dakotas tonight, continuing brisk S-SW flow across the region as well as dropping a surface cold front south across eastern CO. Therefore, there are a couple of concerns for the forecast tonight. First, there is the threat of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the far eastern plains this evening. SPC has the Marginal area for severe weather across Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties tonight, taking into account 40-50 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and about 1200 j/kg of available CAPE in the area. There have been lingering showers and thunderstorms near the eastern border all through the day, but the best shot of possibly some severe storms will be between 4-9 PM. Second, the approaching cold front, though not particularly strong, will aid in amping up the bulk shear across the east as well as ushering in colder air. Not only will anticipated highs tomorrow be slightly cooler, but overnight lows tonight across the Palmer Divide and Northern El Paso County are expected to flirt with freezing. Decided to issue a Frost Advisory for Northern El Paso County from 3 AM until 9 AM to let residents know of the threat to sensitive outdoor plants. Plan on overnight lows in the 20s for the high valleys, mid 30s to mid 40s for much of the eastern plains, and 30-35F for Northern El Paso County. Tomorrow...As the upper low continues pushing northeast into Canada, the trailing upper trough axis will cross CO, leading to dry conditions with diminished winds. Due to the frontal passage Thu night, afternoon high temps will likely be slightly cooler with forecast highs in the mid 50s to around 60F for the high valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains. Moore && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 319 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Overall, good agreement between the operational guidance with low ensemble spreads across Colorado through the extended period. Friday night through Sunday...the upper trough is forecast to continue eastward overnight, while the next upper wave begins to move into the area. Overnight lows Friday night will fall into the mid 30s along the lower Arkansas River Valley and lower 40s for much of the rest of the Plains. The upper system will drop south across Wyoming, and into western Kansas on Saturday. This will send a cold front south across the Plains late in the day, with winds switching northerly, with gusts near 30 mph possible. Afternoon highs will reach in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Plains. Winds look to subside Saturday night, and will allow for temperatures to fall in the lower to mid 30s across the Plains by Sunday morning. For the most part, lows look to remain at or above freezing, and frost may be possible. Those with sensitive outdoor vegetation may want to take precautions to protect them. Flat upper ridging will spread across the area on Sunday, with continued dry conditions across the region. High temperatures on Sunday will reach into the 70s across the Plains. Monday through Tuesday...the next upper storm system will drop south across Colorado for early next week. The track will be northerly, with winds being the primary concern across the area. Across the high terrain, a few showers will be possible, mainly from the La Garita Range, north across the Central Mountains, and perhaps in the Palmer Divide late Monday into the overnight hours. Any snow looks to remain confined to above 10 kft, with minor accumulations possible. Breezy, westerly flow will help temperatures warm nicely on Monday, with highs pushing the lower 80s on the Plains. A cold front will arrive late in the day, with winds switching northerly, with strong gusts possible. Overnight lows into Tuesday morning will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the Plains. The upper system will quickly shift to our east Tuesday morning with upper ridging building across the Rockies by the evening. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday afternoon, with upper 50s to mid 60s across the Plains. Wednesday into Thursday...dry conditions, with upper ridging spreading across the region are forecast for mid next week. Temperatures will remain cooler, with mainly 60s to near 70 for highs. A couple of shower could begin to impact the San Juan Range by Thursday, as an upper low moves across the Desert Southwest. Mozley && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Brisk S-SW winds gusting to 25 kts through 01Z for most areas. Surface winds becoming W-NW, then N this evening across the eastern plains, affecting KCOS and KPUB, as a cold front drops south across the plains. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ084. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...MOORE