883
FXUS65 KPUB 081123
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
423 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler with another passing dry cold front bringing breezy
  northerly winds across the southeast plains today.

- Dry conditions persist Sunday through Thursday for the region.

- A pattern change is expected for the end of the week,
  bringing increased precipitation chances for the higher
  terrain Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate moderate northwest flow aloft across the region, with another
embedded short wave translating across the Northern Rockies at this
time. Regional radar and satellite data as of 1 AM has generally clear
skies across southern Colorado, with some mid and upper level moisture
translating across northern Colorado, along with a few showers across
south central Wyoming spreading into north central Colorado at this
time. The passing wave has help to develop breezy northwest winds over
and near the higher terrain early this morning, with the passing
system`s backdoor cold front moving across southeastern Wyoming into
northeastern Colorado, with northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph being
realized across southeastern Wyoming at this time.

For today and tonight...the backdoor cold front pushes across the Palmer
Divide between 10Z-12Z and then continues south through mid morning. The
strongest northerly winds will persist across the far southeast plains
through the afternoon, where the best pressure rises will reside, as
winds weaken and become more east to southeast across the I-25 Corridor.
Breezy northwest winds will also persist over the higher terrain through
the morning, before subsiding into the late afternoon, as flow aloft slowly
weakens from west to east. Temperatures cool behind the passing system,
with highs mainly in the 50s across the plains, and in the 30s, 40s and
50s across the higher terrain.  Cooling aloft, along with subsiding winds,
will lead to chilly overnight lows in the 20s across the plains, and mainly
in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

Sunday: For the end of the weekend, quiet weather continues for
south central and southeastern Colorado. Northwesterly flow will be
in place over the region, and given the lack of any major forcing,
along with drier air filtering into the area, dry conditions are
anticipated. Outside of that, light winds and occasional mid to high
level clouds are expected areawide. Temperatures Sunday will be
cool, with much of the region falling to below seasonal values
thanks to a cold front passage Saturday.

Sunday Night - Thursday: For much of the long term period, quiet
weather is anticipated to prevail for south central and southeastern
Colorado. The northwesterly flow in place from Sunday will
transition to ridging Monday through Thursday. Given the increasing
subsidence with the ridging, and overall lack of any major forcing,
dry conditions are expected areawide Sunday night through Thursday.
A few weak waves/vort maxes may drift over the region Monday through
Thursday, but any influence from these is anticipated to minimal,
with a brief uptick in cloud cover at most from them. Otherwise,
relatively lights winds around and less than 10-15 mph, with pockets
of mid to high level clouds, is expected through this period. As for
temperatures, a quick warmup is anticipated, with temperatures
returning back to above seasonal values for much of south central
and southeastern Colorado.

Friday: For the end of the week, active weather may start to make a
return to portions of south central and southeastern Colorado as a
pattern change begins to materialize. Synoptically, troughing is
anticipated to start developing across the western US and make a
push towards the Colorado area during this period. Confidence on
this is medium (~50%) at this time, as ensemble models are in fairly
good agreement about the troughing developing, though have
differences in timing and ultimate strength. With that all said,
with troughing in place, precipitation chances will start to
increase, particularly for western portions of the forecast area and
primarily along the higher terrain. Elsewhere though, dry conditions
are still expected. Beyond all of that, winds will start to become
breezier and clouds will start to increase as the system approaches.
Looking at temperatures, the warm trend continues ahead of the main
troughing.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 422 AM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds will remain relatively light through this TAF period
for all three sites, though KCOS and KPUB may have brief periods of
increased northerly to northeasterly winds this morning as a cold
front pushes southward. Beyond all that, dry conditions with mostly
clear skies is anticipated for the TAF sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...SIMCOE