524
FXUS65 KPUB 162008
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
208 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief window of possibility for severe thunderstorms across
  the far southeast plains this evening.

- Frost Advisory for Northern El Paso County tonight from 3 AM
  until 9 AM. Frost possible across much of the eastern plains
  early Sunday morning as well.

- Mainly dry and mild for much of the extended period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Currently...Upper low centered over WY and southern MT was producing
brisk south-southwest flow across the forecast area today and a few
lingering showers and storms near the KS border. There have been
some spotty critical fire weather conditions due to low RH levels
and gusty winds, but rainfall from the previous day/night has helped
to mitigate issues at least in the near-term. Temps as of 1 PM have
warmed into the 60s for the high valleys, and 70s to around 80F for
the plains.

Tonight...Upper low to the north is expected to eject to the north-
northeast across MT and the Dakotas tonight, continuing brisk S-SW
flow across the region as well as dropping a surface cold front
south across eastern CO. Therefore, there are a couple of concerns
for the forecast tonight. First, there is the threat of strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms across the far eastern plains this
evening. SPC has the Marginal area for severe weather across Kiowa,
Bent and Prowers counties tonight, taking into account 40-50 kts of
0-6 km bulk shear and about 1200 j/kg of available CAPE in the area.
There have been lingering showers and thunderstorms near the eastern
border all through the day, but the best shot of possibly some
severe storms will be between 4-9 PM. Second, the approaching cold
front, though not particularly strong, will aid in amping up the
bulk shear across the east as well as ushering in colder air. Not
only will anticipated highs tomorrow be slightly cooler, but
overnight lows tonight across the Palmer Divide and Northern El Paso
County are expected to flirt with freezing. Decided to issue a Frost
Advisory for Northern El Paso County from 3 AM until 9 AM to let
residents know of the threat to sensitive outdoor plants. Plan on
overnight lows in the 20s for the high valleys, mid 30s to mid 40s
for much of the eastern plains, and 30-35F for Northern El Paso
County.

Tomorrow...As the upper low continues pushing northeast into Canada,
the trailing upper trough axis will cross CO, leading to dry
conditions with diminished winds. Due to the frontal passage Thu
night, afternoon high temps will likely be slightly cooler with
forecast highs in the mid 50s to around 60F for the high valleys,
and mid 60s to mid 70s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Overall, good agreement between the operational guidance with
low ensemble spreads across Colorado through the extended
period.

Friday night through Sunday...the upper trough is forecast to
continue eastward overnight, while the next upper wave begins to
move into the area. Overnight lows Friday night will fall into
the mid 30s along the lower Arkansas River Valley and lower 40s
for much of the rest of the Plains. The upper system will drop
south across Wyoming, and into western Kansas on Saturday. This
will send a cold front south across the Plains late in the day,
with winds switching northerly, with gusts near 30 mph possible.
Afternoon highs will reach in the upper 60s to lower 70s across
the Plains. Winds look to subside Saturday night, and will
allow for temperatures to fall in the lower to mid 30s across
the Plains by Sunday morning. For the most part, lows look to
remain at or above freezing, and frost may be possible. Those
with sensitive outdoor vegetation may want to take precautions
to protect them. Flat upper ridging will spread across the area
on Sunday, with continued dry conditions across the region. High
temperatures on Sunday will reach into the 70s across the
Plains.

Monday through Tuesday...the next upper storm system will drop
south across Colorado for early next week. The track will be
northerly, with winds being the primary concern across the area.
Across the high terrain, a few showers will be possible, mainly
from the La Garita Range, north across the Central Mountains,
and perhaps in the Palmer Divide late Monday into the overnight
hours. Any snow looks to remain confined to above 10 kft, with
minor accumulations possible. Breezy, westerly flow will help
temperatures warm nicely on Monday, with highs pushing the lower
80s on the Plains. A cold front will arrive late in the day,
with winds switching northerly, with strong gusts possible.
Overnight lows into Tuesday morning will fall into the mid 30s
to lower 40s across the Plains. The upper system will quickly
shift to our east Tuesday morning with upper ridging building
across the Rockies by the evening. Temperatures will be much
cooler Tuesday afternoon, with upper 50s to mid 60s across the
Plains.

Wednesday into Thursday...dry conditions, with upper ridging
spreading across the region are forecast for mid next week.
Temperatures will remain cooler, with mainly 60s to near 70 for
highs. A couple of shower could begin to impact the San Juan
Range by Thursday, as an upper low moves across the Desert
Southwest.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Brisk S-SW winds gusting to 25 kts through 01Z for most areas.
Surface winds becoming W-NW, then N this evening across the eastern
plains, affecting KCOS and KPUB, as a cold front drops south across
the plains.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Friday for COZ084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE