558
FXUS65 KPUB 102103
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
203 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm conditions to persist through Thursday.

- Approaching Pacific trough will bring increased precipitation
  chances for the higher terrain beginning Friday and over the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Currently...Upper ridge of high pressure over the Western US was
producing lighter NW flow aloft across Colorado, and a beautiful day
across the region with some high thin clouds. Temps have warmed into
the 50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and 60s to lower 70s
as of 2 PM.

Tonight and Tuesday...Upper ridge over the western US will flatten
out slightly through the short term, while a very weak upper
disturbance crosses the Rockies. It is hard to make out, but this
feature will increase W-NW flow aloft tonight into Tuesday morning,
and will also be responsible for a weak cold front to drop south
across the Palmer Divide late afternoon into tomorrow evening.

Therefore, tonight there will be an increase in mid and high level
cloudiness, and the expected increased in westerly downslope flow
should produce a somewhat mild night for the region. Overnight lows
are forecast to be in the 20s to mid 30s for the high valleys, and
30s to around 40F for the plains. The cold spot will be in Alamosa
with a minimum in the upper teens.

Westerly winds to start off the day will allow for a faster warm up
Tuesday , and high temps tomorrow are anticipated to be in the mid
50s to lower 60s for the high valleys, and 70s across the plains.
This will mean around 5 degrees above normal for the high valleys,
and 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tuesday: Early in the week, quiet weather continues for south
central and southeastern Colorado. Ridging and increased subsidence
will remain in place, and given this, along with weak flow, dry
conditions are expected areawide. Along with that, a couple of
amorphous waves/vort maxes will drift over the region, however
influence from these is anticipated to be minimal, with enough
forcing to bring a slight uptick in mid to high level cloud cover.
Otherwise, relatively light winds around and less than 10-15 mph and
warm temperatures is expected. Speaking of temperatures, much of the
area will warm to above seasonal values. With that said, a weak cold
front is expected to sag southward through the day, though this will
have more of an influence on Wednesdays temperatures.

Tuesday Night - Thursday: Through much of the midweek timeframe,
quiet weather prevails for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Synoptically, ridging will continue to sit over the area, and given
this feature and weak flow, dry conditions are anticipated to
prevail for the region. Again, minor waves/vort maxes may drift over
the area, though any influence from these is expected to be minimal,
with brief increases in cloud cover at most from them. Beyond all of
that, winds will continue to remain relatively light around and less
than 10 mph, with temperatures slightly dropping Wednesday and then
increasing Thursday. Looking at temperatures, while the
aforementioned cold front passage will drop temperatures a tad
Wednesday, values are still expected to remain above seasonal
values. As for Thursday, temperatures will warm back up and remain
well above seasonal values for mid November.

Friday - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the weekend,
active weather makes a return as a pattern change takes place across
south central and southeastern Colorado. Like previous forecast,
will lean heavily on ensemble model guidance given continued run to
run consistency and decent agreement between different ensembles.
With that said, confidence only remains medium (50-60%) on this
pattern evolution given some discrepancies still in how the pattern
change ultimately evolves, especially during Saturday. With that all
said, troughing is expected to develop and start approaching the
region Friday, push across through Saturday, and start to exit the
region through Sunday. As this trough approaches and pushes over,
precipitation is anticipated to increase in coverage, though
particularly along the mountains where where forcing will be
greatest and snow is expected. For the plains and valleys,
confidence is lower on how much precipitation will develop, as that
will be highly dependent on how the trough develops. Then as the
troughing pushes eastward through Sunday, precipitation is expected
to lessen in coverage as forcing and moisture decrease. Beyond
all of that, winds will become more breezy and clouds will
increase in coverage given the more unsettled pattern, with
windiest conditions expected Friday ahead of the approaching
wave. As for temperatures, Friday is anticipated to be the
warmest day given downsloping winds ahead of the trough, with
temperatures then falling Saturday and Sunday given the trough
passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1016 AM MST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated across the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Winds will be fairly light and diurnally driven. Increasing
middle and upper-level cloud cover is expected this evening, and did
mention wind shear for both KCOS and KPUB starting in the 05-07z
time frame.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE