411
FXUS65 KPUB 111746
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1046 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected today, along
  with the return of breezy winds.

- Dry and breezy weather with above normal temperatures continue
  through early next week, with light snow showers returning to
  the central mountains towards the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Much more dry air has pushed across portions of the southern
I-25 Corridor, and combined with the persistent brisk W-NW winds
gusting to 25-30 mph, has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag
Warning for the southern I-25 Corridor this afternoon until 5
PM. This is for Fire Zones 226>230. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 222 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Today..

Northwest flow wins again and looks to wash out the influence of
yesterday`s shallow cold front. Strong downsloping will cause
temperatures to soar into the 15 to 20 degrees above normal range
once again across the plains, with highs well into the 60s and 70s
for most locations. A few 80s may even be possible for Baca COunty.
Though we will inch near a few records, we look to stay several
degrees short today. Standing records for the 11th are 79F for for
Pueblo and 72F for Colorado Springs, and we are forecast to hit 70F
and 63F respectively. We look to be very dry across the area, though
humidity values are expected to remain above critical fire weather
thresholds. Winds will be gusty, especially in the central
mountains, over Pikes Peak, and through our gap flows. These areas
are likely to see gusts to 45 mph or so, with other areas seeing
gusts closer to 30 mph today. Overnight lows will be mild again,
especially for the mountain adjacent plains and along the banana
belt region where downsloping will continue to keep temperatures on
the warm side. These areas will likely remain in the 40s.
Temperatures in the 20s and 30s are more likely along and north of
Highway 50, and away from the mountains where the influence of
downsloping will diminish. Teens are expected for mountain valleys.
Another shallow cold front looks to back across our plains late
tonight into early tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

The weather pattern will be dominated by northwest flow aloft
with brief dry cold front intrusions into the southeast plains
through Saturday which retreats to the east on Sunday as
shortwave ridging aloft translates in and lee troughing re-
establishes. Even with the frontal intrusions temperatures
across the plains remain above normal with mixing offsetting any
effects from cooling especially on Saturday. Otherwise, it will
be breezy at times in and near the mountains during the
afternoon as northwest flow aloft mixes down, but speeds do not
look as strong as recent days.

A weak Pacific trough moves through the Great Basin into the 4
corners region on Monday but it is pretty moisture starved in
all of the long range models. The best it will offer is some
increase in cloud cover.

Zonal flow sets up for the latter half of the work week which
will bode for above normal temperatures and breezy to windy
conditions in and near the mountains each day. Passing systems
to the north will spread some light snow into the central
mountains at times. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1030 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24
hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. SCT
to BKN high level cloudiness is expected to persist across the
central and eastern mts, as well as much of the eastern plains,
affecting KCOS and KPUB. In addition, gusty W-NW winds will persist
for KCOS and KPUB through approx. 00Z with gusts 25-30 kt possible
at times.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ226>230.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE