132
FXUS65 KPUB 090944
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
244 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures and windy conditions are
  expected for our Tuesday, particularly for the central
  mountains.

- Isolated light snow showers expected across the central
  mountains Wednesday.

- Dry conditions prevail otherwise for south central and
  southeastern Colorado during the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Currently..

North-northwesterly flow aloft persists, and gusts at mountain-top
level are ripping early this morning. The top of Pikes Peak has been
recording 75 to 80 mph winds through much of the overnight hours,
and winds at the higher mesonet sensors above USAFA have been around
40 mph through the past few hours as well. Temperatures are warmer
than normal, especially along our mountain adjacent plains and the
banana belt where downsloping and mixing are strongest. The Air
Force Academy is still 45F as of 1 AM, and Walsenburg is 43F as
well.

Today..

Strong northwest flow aloft persists today, with a trough digging
into the midwest through this afternoon. Though the main jet support
for high winds will be to our north and east, strong winds are
likely over our mountains today, with westerly gusts up to 60 mph
persisting well into this evening across Lake and Chaffee counties,
particularly across higher elevations of the Sawatch, and lee sides
of mountain ranges in both counties where downsloping will occur. At
this time, high wind warning criteria (75 mph) is not expected on
our side of these county lines, though there will be a slight chance
(less than 30%) of a rogue gust or two particularly in eastern Lake
County or along the higher terrain of Chaffee County. The more
likely case for 60 mph winds will be mainly north of Monarch Pass,
though the rest of our mountain ranges can expect gusts to 45 mph
today as well. Light but wind driven snow will also be possible for
the central mountains this afternoon. Though new accumulations are
not likely, the combination of strong winds and wind driven snow
will make for some dangerous travel conditions through our central
mountains today.

For the plains, expect warmer temperatures thanks to downsloping
winds near the mountains and clear skies further east. Highs look to
warm into the upper 50s for the Pikes Peak region, and well into the
60s elsewhere on the plains. Winds will be breezy, with gusts to 20
mph for most areas. Our gap flow areas through eastern Fremont,
Pueblo, and Huerfano counties will be breezier than other areas as
usual, with gusts closer to the 35 to 40 mph range through much of
this afternoon. These gustier winds will extend into the western
portions of El Paso County as well, along the lee side of the
Ramparts, to include Manitou Springs and USAFA. Though a cold front
will be approaching our far eastern plains later tonight, continued
mixing well into the evening hours looks to keep us overall warmer
than normal once again. Most locations are expected to remain in the
upper 20s and low 30s on the plains, with our mountain valleys
cooling into the teens. The banana belt will have the highest chance
at keeping downsloping winds in place, and never decoupling,
straight through the overnight, which would keep these areas in the
mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wednesday: For midweek, quiet weather is expected for most of south
central and southeastern Colorado. Northwesterly flow will be in
place over the region, and given the lack of any major forcing, dry
conditions are expected for much of the area. The exception to this
will be along the central mountains, where modest orographic forcing
will be ongoing, and this, combined with some minor moisture in
place, will allow for isolated light snow showers. Otherwise, breezy
conditions are anticipated for many, with wind gusts around 20 mph
for the lower elevations, and gusts up to 50 mph for the higher
elevations, with pockets of mid to high level clouds streaming
across the area. Looking at temperatures, a cooler day is expected
thanks to a weak cold front passage early in the day, though with
temperatures still remaining slightly above seasonal values. With
that said, the plains will warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s, the
valleys into the 40s to low 50s, and the mountains into the 30s and
40s.

Wednesday Night - Monday: For the rest of the long term period,
quiet weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Synoptically, northwest flow will remain in place through Sunday,
with a brief break in the northwest flow Monday as a weak wave
drifts across the region. Overall, confidence is high to very high
in this pattern (80-90%) given strong and consistent agreement
between ensemble model guidance. With that all said, forcing is
still expected to remain minimal, even with the wave passage, and
given this, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail. Beyond all of
that, breezy conditions will persist along the mountains with
lighter winds for the lower elevations, and mid to high level clouds
continuing as well. As for temperatures, much of the area will hover
around seasonal values. With that said though, a weak shallow cold
front may influence the region later in the week, but confidence is
only medium (40-50%) in how much this will ultimately drop
temperatures for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. The main forecast concern through this
period will be wind shear, which is forecast for KCOS and KPUB,
beginning after sunset this evening. Westerly and northwesterly
winds gusting to 25kt at KCOS and 40 mph at KPUB are expected this
afternoon, but will weaken at the surface soon after sunset, which
will lead to speed and directional shear heading into the evening
and overnight hours. Other than wind and shear concerns,
precipitation and visibility restrictions are not likely, and skies
will be scattered to broken in the middle and upper-levels.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...EHR