877
FXUS65 KPUB 021722
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1022 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures forecast for Pueblo and Colorado
  Springs.

- Weak cold front reaches southern Colorado around midnight
  tonight.

- Continued warm and dry through the extended period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 843 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

An upper level ridge passes over just to the south of Colorado
today, which puts the predominate upper level flow from northwest to
west transitioning throughout the day. The height rises and the flow
regime will aid in a very warm day for this time of year with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the plains, the mid
60s over the San Luis Valley, and the upper 50s (Lake County) to low
70s (southern Chaffee) for the upper Arkansas River Valley. Those
temperatures will be near record for our climate sites, which are as
follows:

Pueblo - 81F in 2008; Forecast today is 82F

Colorado Springs - Prev 76F in 1941; Forecast today is 78F

Alamosa - Prev 68 in 2008; Forecast today is 65F

Like a lot of temperatures records that are broken during the the
cooler season, generally you get really hot day followed by a quick
cool down as a cold front passes by, which is what will happen at
around midnight tonight. Northerly winds aren`t expected to be
strong, perhaps gusting up to 15 MPH as it passes overhead - no
precipitation is expected with this front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

No changes to the long term, with continued good model and
ensemble agreement.

Monday...flat zonal ridging will continue across the region
while a quick moving upper shortwave ejects out of Utah into
northwest Colorado by late afternoon. The main impact from
the upper shortwave will be mid and high level clouds across the
state. Cooler temperatures are forecast across the Plains, with
upper 50s to mid 60s north of the Arkansas River, with upper
60s to near 70 south.

Monday night through Wednesday...the upper shortwave will
continue to track northeast Monday night, with cloud cover
dissipating by morning. A return to flat westerly flow is
forecast across Colorado on Tuesday. Enhanced mixing will help
boost temperatures back through the 70s to near 80 across the
Plains. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely along the
I-25 corridor in gap wind prone areas Tuesday afternoon. A weak
frontal boundary will back westward across the Plains Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Afternoon highs Wednesday look to
be about 10 degrees cooler than those seen on Tuesday, but still
in the mid to upper 60s across the Plains.

Thursday through Sunday...two upper waves are forecast to drop
southeast from the Northern Rockies into the Missouri Valley,
one Thursday and a second on Saturday. Both of these systems
look to track north of Colorado and have limited impacts across
the region. Model guidance continues to limit precipitation
chances across the Central Mountains, with very low pops (around
10 percent) on Thursday, and again on Saturday. QPF amounts
would support a dusting of snow north of Cottonwood Pass, at
best with each system. Winds could be gusty both days across the
Plains, and model guidance continues to back off on how
widespread elevated fire weather conditions may be. Overall, gap
wind prone areas along the I-25 corridor have the best
opportunity at elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures
look to remain warm Thursday and Friday with mostly 60s and 70s
for the lower elevations. A cold front may knock a few degrees
from highs on Saturday and Sunday.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1022 AM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Other than a brief uptick in winds this evening for KCOS and
KPUB as a weak front pushes southward, light winds are anticipated
at all three TAF sites. Otherwise, dry conditions with mostly clear
skies are expected, though with an increase in high level
clouds tomorrow morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE