


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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133 FXUS62 KRAH 161718 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 118 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic states through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 PM Thursday... * Lowest temperatures since mid-April expected tonight. Aloft, central NC will remain under NW flow on the ern periphery of a longwave ridge (progressing slowly ewd across the MS Valley), with the deepening cyclone sliding swd off the New England coast, through tonight. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will progress ewd across the Great Lakes today, then sewd toward the mid-Atlantic tonight, its ridge axis extending swd through the region. Highs today still expected to top out in the mid 60s NE to low 70s SW. With the subsidence aloft and high pressure building in at the surface, expect dry weather, clear skies, and calm to very light winds tonight, resulting in excellent radiational cooling conditions. Low-level thicknesses should be in the 1335-1350 meter range by 12Z Friday, which with the above in mind should result in lows Fri morning ranging from mid/upper 30s to low/mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 PM Thursday... As the cyclone moves ewd away from New England, the longwave ridge will progress ewd to over the Eastern US, flattening some over the region Fri night as an upper level s/w disturbance tracking ewd across the TN Valley Fri aft/eve moves over the area. Primary impact with this s/w will be some increased high clouds from W-E late Fri through Fri night. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will continue to move slowly ewd across the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Fri/Fri night. High temperatures should again range from mid 40s NE to low 70s SW on Fri. Despite the high being over the area Fri night, low level thicknesses are expected to increase to 1360-1370 meters by 12Z Sat, and with the increased cloud cover, lows should be several degrees higher than the previous night, mainly in the mid to upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 PM Thursday... * Breezy conditions expected Sunday with frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph. * A period of light rain remains possible late Sun afternoon into Sun night. A longwave trough will sharpen over the MS Valley on Sun and is expected to slide into the Mid-Atlantic Sun night into Mon night. There are some discrepancies between the GFS/CMC and the ECMWF global models and their respective ensembles on the character of the trough and related secondary surface low placement. The ECMWF and its ensemble members remain stubborn on a secondary low developing over the Ohio Valley and shifting into the northern Mid-Atlantic late Sun into Mon, resulting in overall tighter pressure gradient and markedly better precip chances. A cold front is expected to traverse the eastern seaboard as this low departs on Mon with high pressure building into the region into midweek. The forecast still suggest mostly light rain amounts (trace to 0.25") possible late Sun afternoon into early Mon morning as a band of decaying convection and remnant MCVs are directed over the area. Conditions will likely become breezy Sun afternoon with a tight pressure gradient between the deep low over the Great Lakes and broad high pressure just off the East Coast. Although we will likely see partly to mostly cloudy skies, point soundings from 00z grand- ensemble, 12z GFS and 12z NAM suggest gusts of 20-25 kts with infrequent gusts as high as 30 kts possible; however, higher end gusts will likely be confined to areas with limited cloud cover as momentum transfer through the mixed layer is more efficient under sunny skies. There may be some fire weather concerns early to midweek behind the cold front with downsloping winds, lower dew points, locally higher wind gusts, and abnormally dry to moderate drought in the Piedmont and Sandhills, but confidence in placement of surface features and probabilities from 00z LREF are too low at this point to include in the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday... 24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will continue to be a bit breezy this aft but should taper off after sunset to light/calm overnight. Outlook: A cold front will move across cntl NC on Sunday, with gusty winds, a band of low-end VFR to MVFR cigs, and a chance of showers expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through early next week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...10 SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM...AS AVIATION...10