038
FXUS62 KRAH 261754
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1250 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong, polar front will sweep east across NC this afternoon into
early evening. Cold high pressure will follow and build from
northwestern Canada to the Middle Atlantic through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 AM Wednesday...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Scattered showers are expected this morning.

-  A strong cold front will drive through the region this afternoon
 and early evening with gusty shifting winds and clearing skies.

-  Very warm today (70s).

-  CAA arrives tonight (30s to lower 40s for lows).

The showers will be likely into the early morning hours as weak
waves travel NE along the Piedmont wedge boundary. Rainfall will be
around 0.10 to 0.30 of an inch in the Piedmont, lesser totals
elsewhere. The main front will surge through the region this
afternoon and early evening. The showers of the morning hours will
move away with loss of upper support, with clearing skies prior to
the fropa this afternoon. This will allow the temperatures to soar
as we all break out into the pre-frontal SW-W flow. With partly
sunny skies this afternoon, the highs should soar into the 70s for
most areas.

CAA and much, much drier air will arrive on WNW winds this evening
and tonight at 10-25 mph. The gustiness will be strongest in the NW
Piedmont just in the rear of the cold front late this afternoon when
winds may reach 35 mph. Lows will fall a good 30 to 40 degrees by
12z/Thu from today`s highs. Lows 35-45 NW to SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Very minimal fire weather concerns due to the cold temperatures.

-  Dry air and breezy WNW winds at 10-20 mph will make it feel even
   colder, with partly sunny skies.

-  Mainly clear and cold Thursday night. Lows 24-30 (wind chills 18-
   24).

Expect a pressure gradient to continue to drive CAA into the region.
Highs in the afternoon in the upper 40s to mid 50s NW to SE. Feels
like temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s. There will be some
stratocumulus and cirrus, but overall partly sunny becoming mostly
sunny. Fire weather parameters of minimum RH of 18-28 percent with
gusty winds suggest discussion with the NCFS. However, some wetting
rain today and expected cold readings (sub-55 temperatures)
essentially may negate the need for major concerns.

Clear and cold with lows in the 20s to near 30 (SE) Thursday night
with high pressure approaching from the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

Saturday will be another day of cool temperatures, but overall quiet
as surface high pressure will shift over the Mid-Atlantic region
before shifting northeast. Temperatures will stay on the chilly
side, mainly in the low to mid 40s. One more night of overnight
temperatures dropping down in the mid/upper 20s with some warmer
spots only getting down to 30 degrees.

From Sunday through Wednesday morning, confidence is growing that we
will shift into a more active and wetter pattern. Multiple
disturbances will move across the eastern US, but there is still a
good amount of uncertainty in the exact timing and strength.

Generally expect the onset of precipitation to begin late Sunday
afternoon. Light rain is mainly expected Sunday afternoon and
evening. A lull overnight Sunday is possible with another push of
increased chances Monday. CAD conditions are expected to set up and
result in cooler temps Monday into Tuesday across the Piedmont.
Models begin to differ Monday in the location and timing of the low
pressure system across the Southeast. GFS shows a Coastal low
developing early Tuesday which will bring larger QPF amounts through
Wednesday. The ECMWF model is much slower and shows the low
developing across the Deep South and shifting over the Southeast and
into the Carolinas late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning. ECMWF
also has much cooler temperatures with a stronger CAD setup across
the Piedmont, which will affect high temperatures Monday and
especially Tuesday. What is most consistent with both models is the
signal that this  system will bring widespread rain across the
region, giving us a much-needed soaking. Right now, temperatures
look a little too warm for anything other than cold rain, however
depending on the timing of the precip early Sunday morning,  a few
quick flurries cant be ruled out in the NW Piedmont.

Temperatures Sunday through Wednesday will largely depend on
how/where the system tracks. But generally expect the NW Piedmont to
be much cooler than the rest of the region due to CAD development.
Highs in the NW will range from the mid to upper 40s each day and
overnight lows in the mid 30s Sun/Mon then low 30s Tues/Wed night.
Elsewhere, temperatures will range from upper 50s to low 60s Sunday
then each day highs will gradual cool with highs in the low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 635 AM Wednesday...

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through the early morning today.
Through 15z, IFR to LIFR ceilings are expected to move into the
region with scattered showers spreading east.

VFR conditions will return by afternoon; however, gusts of around 25-
30 kt gusts everywhere appear likely. The wind will shift from the
WSW to the WNW after the cold frontal passage later today and early
this evening.

Outlook: VFR conditions appear likely through at least Saturday,
with the chance of rain returning Sunday ahead of another cold front.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS/Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...LH/Badgett