924
FXUS62 KRAH 301042
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
640 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north and the circulation around Tropical Storm
Imelda will continue to bring a cool and moist northeast flow to the
region through this evening. Canadian high pressure centered over
Quebec and New England will extend into our region and bring a
chilly airmass into our area on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

* Light rain and drizzle will gradually taper off by the afternoon,
  with the extensive stratus layer slowly lifting

Weak upper level impulses embedded within the plume of tropical
moisture from TS Imelda will continue to support widespread low
clouds with periods of light rain and drizzle through mid to late
morning.

By midday/early afternoon, as Hurricane Humberto gains latitude to
the north and Tropical Storm Imelda turns east and begins to move
away from the SE US coast, precip will taper off as mean layer flow
becomes increasing NELY, resulting in isentropic downglide. This
will be followed by low-level dry air advection through the evening
and overnight. Skies will not completely clear out however, with
some mid level ceilings overnight.

Highs will range from lower 70s northwest, to mid 70s east. NELY
winds of 7 to 10 mph will increase to 10 to 15 mph after daybreak,
with occasional gusts in the 20 to 25 mph.

Lows tonight will fall in the 60s, with some upper 50s possible
across the northern Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

* Sunshine returns with seasonable temps

The lingering upper trough that has been parked over the region will
finally shift south of the area late in the day. At the surface,
high pressure over SE Canada will build south into the NE US and New
England, leading to renewed sfc pressure rises across our area
Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

Subsidence in the wake of the exiting trough should help to scatter
out a broken veil of mid and high clouds allowing for sunshine
during the afternoon commute. Dry conditions will prevail, with
another day of breezy NELY winds expected, with gusts of 20 to 25
mph into the afternoon.

Overnight, gustiness will subside Wednesday evening with mostly
clear skies and weak CAA setting in. Expect some of the coolest
temps since early September. Lows 50 to 55, with some upper 40s
possible in cooler outlying areas of the northern Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

* Fall-like conditions on Thursday and Friday with a mix of clouds
  and sun with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
* Temperatures moderate to above average over the weekend into
  Monday with mainly dry conditions.

The long term period will begin with modest mid and upper level
ridging centered across the OH Valley with weak troughiness
extending from the southwestern Atlantic into the northern Gulf. The
ridge axis will slip east into VA and NC by late Friday as an upper
trough organizes across the lower MS Valley and northern Gulf. At
the same time, a 1032mb surface high will be centered across eastern
Quebec on Thursday morning before the high shifts east and off the
New England Coast by Friday night. As the high extends southwest
into the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, a fall-like airmass will be
injected into the area. A cool northeast flow will result in morning
low-level thickness values in the 1350s on Thursday and Friday
mornings resulting in lows in the lower to mid 50s in most locations
and perhaps some upper 40s in the cooler spots in the Triad and near
the VA border. Highs will range in the upper 60s to lower 70s on
Thursday and the lower to mid 70s on Friday. A fair amount of strato-
cumulus clouds are expected on Thursday, especially from Raleigh
north and east with noticeably fewer clouds on Friday. A northeast
breeze is expected on Thursday with some gusts of 15 to 20 mph with
a lighter northeast wind on Friday.

The upper ridge will move south and east over the weekend into
Monday with an upper low forming and closing off across the northern
Gulf coast. This setup will favor the development of a deep easterly
flow across the southeast and potentially a coastal trough extending
from FL northeast to the Cape Fear region. This will result in a
gradual increase in moisture over the weekend into Monday with some
guidance suggesting the potential for some showers along the
Carolina and Florida coast that could push inland across SC and
perhaps southeastern NC. Perhaps more notable will be the airmass
moderation and moistening with highs on Saturday and Sunday in the
upper 70s to around 80 with highs on Monday in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 64020 AM Tuesday...

Through 12Z Wednesday: Tropical moisture streaming north into the
area from TS Imelda will continue to produce widespread IFR to MVFR
CIGS with periods of rain and drizzle through mid to late morning.

Gradual improvement is expected during the afternoon as lift wanes
and daytime heating lifts the stratus, with further improvement to
VFR by late afternoon and early evening as drier air advects in from
the north.

Additionally, NELY winds 7-10 kts will increase after daybreak, with
occasional gusts in the 17-23 kts range expected, strongest at KFAY.


Outlook beyond 12z Wednesday: Surface high pressure extending south
into the region will support predominately dry VFR conditions
through Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...CBL