911
FXUS62 KRAH 071652
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1152 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will hold to our southeast through the rest of the weekend,
as weak high pressure settles over North Carolina and the Mid
Atlantic region. An Arctic cold front will move southeastward
through the area on Monday, while an upper level disturbance passes
overhead. Chilly high pressure will build in from the north Monday
night and Tuesday, then move to our southeast, allowing a southwest
flow and milder temperatures to return for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

* Fog/stratus through the noon hour, then trending gradually to
  partly cloudy in the afternoon, but uncertainty is high.

* Not as chilly as yesterday, but still below normal.

* Clouds increase overnight, with a little light precip spreading
  into the Piedmont from the W late.

We`ll stay in a fast and flat WSW steering flow today, while at the
surface, weak high pressure analyzed over NC and the Mid Atlantic
holds in place before drifting offshore late. The most noteworthy
issue today is determining when the morning fog and stratus will
most likely burn off. The mid and upper levels will briefly dry out
Sun behind the departing weak mid level perturbation and upper jet
streak pushing ENE off the Mid Atlantic coast, which should allow
some insolation that might help burn off the fog/stratus from the
top. But with weak surface flow to inhibit horizontal mixing, and
with steady slow warming taking place just aloft (~925-900 mb)
helping to reinforce the surface-based stability, we could see low
clouds hanging on in most areas well into the afternoon. Even if
some of the area sees at least a few hours of partial sunshine prior
to sunset, it may not be enough to warm up temps much. As such,
forecast high temps today will be a few degrees below yesterday`s
expectations, mainly in the upper 40s to around 50, warmer than Sat
but still below seasonal normals.

Our attention then turns to a shortwave trough over WY/CO early this
morning that will shift through the Mid Miss Valley and across TN
toward W NC through tonight, propelled by energy diving into the
trough from the Upper Midwest. This trough will be associated with
an Arctic cold front that will move into the Mid South, Ohio Valley,
and central Appalachians overnight. High and mid level clouds are
expected to spread in from the west starting in the evening, and
we`ll see a trend toward weak mid level DPVA in our west late, but
there`s little opportunity for substantial moisture return into our
area through the lowest several thousand ft AGL. PW does inch up
across W NC late, but values are still near or just slightly above
normal, thus any mechanisms to force ascent will need to work on
what little moisture is attending the system. Will have mostly low
chance pops spreading into the W CWA late, and given the stubborn
pocket of drier low level air, any amounts initially should be very
light. Based on high res guidance, there is a high chance for ice in
the clouds, and if any of these hydrometeors can survive the layer
of drier air just off the surface (in a seeder-feeder process), we
may see a little light snow mixed in with light rain at the ground
toward morning. But overall, the expected surface wet bulb temps are
likely to be just above freezing through the night, favoring just
liquid for ptype through tonight. Lows across the CWA will be around
31-36. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

* Chance of precipitation areawide Mon, likely mixing with then
  changing to a period of all snow before ending, especially across
  the N and W.

* Precip amounts should generally be under a quarter inch liquid
  equivalent, suggesting that any snow accumulation would be mostly
  under an inch given the initial rain/snow mix, but stay tuned.

Forcing for ascent focused in the mid and upper levels should
continue to ramp up early Mon as the aforementioned trough
approaches, but the incoming PW values will likely be just near
normal and falling further late in the day as the mid-upper levels
start to dry out. But forecast soundings show at least a few hours
in which the column is saturated or nearly so throughout the mixed
phase region aloft down to the surface, occurring in conjunction
with peak mid level DPVA from late morning through late afternoon W
to E. The incoming Arctic front is expected to push SSE through
central NC in the afternoon, so the coldest air may be chasing the
better moisture to some degree during the morning hours,
particularly if the higher terrain manages to delay the coldest and
most dense air for a few hours. But we`re still likely to see an
atypical temp trend with surface temps falling in the afternoon, and
confidence is increasing that we`ll see at least a couple of hours
of predominant light wet snow over all but the far S and SE CWA Mon
afternoon as the low levels cool, with accumulations potentially
limited by the initial rain/snow mix, the surface temps sitting near
or slightly above freezing for much of the day, and the modest PW
values. Model agreement is good in showing a thermal pattern
supporting patchy light rain chances at onset, followed by good
chance to likely pops for a light rain/snow mix, then changing to
mostly light snow before ending in the late afternoon or very early
evening, with no reasonable chance of any icing or freezing precip.
Total accumulation should range from a trace along and N of a line
from the Triad to near Goldsboro, ranging to one half to just under
one inch near the VA border. Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s early, with readings falling through the 30s in the afternoon.
Cold lows Mon night in the mid teens to low 20s will lead to minimum
wind chills in the teens in most places overnight into Tue morning.
While any lingering precip on the ground will begin to dry out
overnight, we`ll be lacking a strong wind to aid in the drying
process, and there is a good chance in a flash freeze with areas of
black ice developing, which would cause travel concerns late Mon
night into early Tue. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...

* Continued chilly Tue/Tue night, then moderating Wed/Thu before
  dropping back well below normal by Sat.

* Precip chances are looking a bit higher for Thu night through Fri
  night.

The rest of the week appears mostly tranquil, continued chilly Tue
but with temperatures trending back closer to normal as the air mass
moderates and the surface high slides to our SE. Models indicate
another round of Arctic air pouring into the Upper Midwest Wed and
through the Great Lakes region and into New England Thu, leading to
a renewed digging of longwave troughing over the central and eastern
CONUS. WAA and moisture advection ahead of the incoming associated
surface cold front favor rain chances moving into the NW CWA late
Thu then spreading areawide Thu night through Fri before exiting to
the E Fri night. We may again see a period of changeover to snow
before ending Fri night, esp across the northern CWA, as the cold
front drops SSE through the area. After chilly highs in the low to
mid 40s Tue, temps should return closer to normal for Wed/Thu, then
trending cooler Fri (with specifics dependent on the frontal timing)
and quite chilly Sat with highs expected to be only in the upper 30s
to mid 40s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1152 AM Sunday...

Early morning fog has largely dissipated this morning, with some
IFR/LIFR ceilings persisting at RDU/RWI/FAY. They will gradually
lift to VFR this afternoon, before another round of IFR cigs and
MVFR vsbys return tonight. Big story will be precip potential on
Monday with a rain/snow mix forecast at INT/GSO around daybreak,
eventually changing to all snow by late morning. Rain/snow mix
possible at RDU as well, with a changeover to snow likely holding
off until just after the end of the TAF period. FAY is likely to
remain all rain through 18Z Monday, although a brief changeover
later in the day is possible. IFR or lower ceilings and vsbys
expected where snow occurs.

Outlook:  Conditions will rapidly improve from west to east during
the day Monday, with dry weather returning area-wide by Monday
night. VFR weather forecast through mid/late week thereafter.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Leins