310
FXUS62 KRAH 240023
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
723 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across and offshore the Middle Atlantic
through Monday night. A wedge front will develop and become quasi-
stationary over the Foothills and Piedmont of the Carolinas and
Georgia Tuesday through Wednesday. A strong cold front will move
across the region early Wednesday night. Cold high pressure will
follow and build from northwestern Canada to the Middle Atlantic
through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

Aloft, nwly flow will prevail over central NC through tonight. As a
nrn stream s/w tracks ese off the New England coast, a mid/upper
disturbance will track across the area, ahead of the sub-tropical
ridge approaching from the west. At the surface, a dry, reinforcing
cold front will slide south across the area this eve/tonight, with
high pressure building into the region behind it. Dry weather will
prevail through tonight, with perhaps a few mid-high clouds tonight
associated with the disturbance aloft. Highs mainly in the 60s
today. Winds could get a bit breezy with the dry cold fropa this eve
and remain a bit stirred into tonight, then taper off across the
north late tonight/early Mon morning. Lows tonight should generally
range from mid/upper 30s north to low 40s south, but will depend on
the winds. If winds go calm earlier and/or over a greater area,
temps could be a couple/few degrees lower in those places. Likewise,
if winds do not taper off across the north as expected, lows may be
a couple/few degrees higher there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

Overview: The sub-tropical ridge will progress across the region on
Mon, and off the East Coast Mon night as a potent s/w tracks
eastward from the central Plains to the mid-MS Valley. At the
surface, high pressure will move ewd across the region Mon and
offshore Mon night. Expect increasing high clouds Mon night as the
s/w approaches from the west, which should limit the radiational
cooling, especially west. Otherwise, dry weather and seasonably warm
temperatures are expected, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s
and lows ranging from mid/upper 30s NE to low/mid 40s SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

* Unsettled weather Tue through Wed night.

* Dry and colder Thu through Sat, then moderating Sun.

Tue-Wed night: Still anticipating an active period, with models in
fairly good agreement on timing and amplitude of a sharpening mid
level trough tracking from the Dakotas/Upper Midwest across the U.P.
of MI to the Ontario/Quebec border. The surface high just off the
Mid Atlantic coast Tue morning will push further out over the NW
Atlantic during the day, putting NC in a deepening return flow
pattern, with falling heights aloft as the mid level ridge over the
Southeast flattens and pushes offshore. The LREF ensemble cluster
analysis shows small variations which can be largely explained by
differences in trough amplitude, with decreased timing differences
from yesterday`s runs. PW increases Tue particularly over our NW
half, where moist isentropic upglide at 290K-305K also strengthens,
supporting chance to low-end likely pops spreading into N and W
sections where PW will trend to over 200% of normal. MUCAPE Tue
should be no greater than 200 J/kg, but with high deep-layer bulk
shear and periods of enhanced upper divergence passing overhead from
the upper jet streak to our NW, we could see an isolated afternoon
storm or two across the N and W. Regarding temps Tue, the departing
surface high is of mild continental origin with a lack of strong
cold/dry air advection from the N that might prompt strong CAD
formation. But with rain chances arriving in our NW early in the day
when surface dewpoints may still be in the 40s, development of at
least a surface-based stable pool is favored in the NW Piedmont.
Temps in the Triad may struggle to reach the upper 50s/near 60,
while in our southeast within good WAA and thinner clouds, highs in
the 70-75 range are expected. Lows Tue night are expected to be
quite mild, in the mid 50s to around 60. The most likely time of
cold front passage through central NC is mid to late Wed afternoon,
slightly faster than that indicated in yesterday`s models.
Prefrontal PW will remain well above normal Tue night through much
of Wed, so will retain above-climo pops. We have another chance for
a few thunderstorms Wed ahead of the front, with the greatest
potential for MUCAPE of 200-600 J/kg over our SE half. We`ll still
have strong deep layer bulk shear of 50-60 kts with long and
generally straight hodographs, so a few strong storms with sub-
severe gusts and small hail could occur, best chance S and E of the
Triangle. Expect highs Wed in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with lows
behind the front Wed night in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thu-Sun: Within post-front subsidence, expect lots of sunshine
Thanksgiving Day, with fair, dry, and cool conditions through Sat as
the mid level trough shifts over E NOAM. Despite the abundant
sunshine, since the incoming surface high will be of Canadian/Arctic
origin, the CAA will keep temps below normal, esp Fri through Sat as
the surface high settles overhead and just to our N. We should see
highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s Thanksgiving Day and Sat, and mid
40s to lower 50s Fri, with are about 5 to 15 degrees below normal.
Lows should be coldest Fri night, in the 20s. As the mid level
trough lifts quickly NE over the Canadian Maritimes into the far N
Atlantic over the weekend, our mid level flow will back and
strengthen from the SW, while at the surface, the high will track
over the Mid Atlantic region Sat then off the New England coast Sun.
This will result in a gradual air mass modification with increasing
high clouds from the SW Sun. Expect continued dry weather, though,
with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions will prevail for the 24 hour TAF period. Overnight,
light to completely calm winds and clear skies are expected. A brief
period of gusts in the teens may be possible shortly after sunrise,
but high pressure overhead may suppress any gusts. Monday afternoon,
mid to upper level VFR clouds should start to spread over the region
from the west.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings and patchy light rain will likely
overspread the Piedmont ahead of a retreating warm front Tue
morning. A chance of rain, increasingly convective in nature, and
also flight restrictions, are expected later Tue through Wed, as a
strong frontal system traverses the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...LH/MWS