995
FXUS62 KRAH 191048
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
548 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front extending from WV into VA will shift south across NC
this afternoon and evening before settling across GA and SC on
Thursday. High pressure will ridge across the region for Thursday
through early Friday before the front lifts north as a warm
front on Friday across the Carolinas and into VA.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday Tuesday...

* Spotty showers and sprinkles with light rainfall amounts will move
  across the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain this
  morning with dry conditions near and south of U.S. route 64.

A mid and upper level trough associated with a weakening 60-70kt jet
streak will exit the mid Atlantic this morning with a trailing
northwesterly flow to spread across the Carolinas this afternoon and
tonight. At the surface, the boundary across NC on Tuesday had
retreated into southern VA with a couple of weak surface waves
across KY and TN.

As the weak surface waves in the TN Valley shift east across the
Carolinas today, the frontal zone in VA will settle south and the
southerly flow across central NC will veer to northwesterly this
afternoon and become northeasterly tonight. Widespread showers and
areas of rain across VA early this morning will shift east while
widely scattered showers and sprinkles spread across northern NC
early this morning. With the main forcing for ascent focused across
VA and just marginal lift atop a dry boundary later in central NC,
precipitation coverage and amounts will be limited with the greatest
amounts in the VA border counties. Any showers should exit the Triad
by around 8am and the Triangle and Rocky Mount areas by 11am. Dry
weather with variable cloudiness will continue today. Highs will be
a little tricky given the precipitation, variable amounts of
cloudiness and transitioning frontal zone, but highs should range in
the upper 60s near the VA border to the mid 70s near the SC border.
Fair weather is expected tonight although skies will become mostly
cloudy. Lows tonight should range from around 40 near the VA border
to the upper 40s across the south. -Blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

* Temperatures trending cooler during the day and more mild
  overnight.

The cold front that pushed through the area Wed night will stall
over the Southeast near the SC/GA border by Thurs morning. This
boundary is not expected to move much throughout the day as broad
high pressure over the Northeast ridging down through our area will
weaken and collapse south and settle over the western Atlantic off
the Southeast coast by 12z Fri. There remains quite a large spread
in the maximum temperature guidance for Thurs and is directly tied
to the extent of the low overcast Thurs morning and how quickly it
erodes through the afternoon. Even so, low level thickness from
global models struggle to get out of the mid 1330s, especially
across northeast NC during the daylight hours. Trended forecast
temperatures closer to statistical and higher resolution guidance
which now results in temperatures ranging from around 70 (SE) to mid
50s (NE). High temperatures could still be 3-7 degrees cooler, but
will be highly dependent on cloud cover persisting through the
afternoon hours. Further temperature adjustments will likely be
necessary in subsequent updates.

Increasing and lowering cloud bases, and possibly the redevelopment
of low stratus, will keep temperatures overnight quite mild (mid 40s
to low 50s, which is 10-15 degrees above normal), despite most
locations likely going calm within the ridge axis of high pressure
and further weakening pressure gradient.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 110 AM Wednesday...

* Fine details of the forecast for Fri night into Sat remain fairly
  uncertain and keeps forecast confidence low.

The remnants of the deep mid/upper low rotating near the Baja
Peninsula currently will eject northeast into the Central Plains by
Fri morning. This wave will significantly de-amplify as it tracks
across the Ohio Valley Fri night and across the Mid-Atlantic on Sat.
This feature will bring our next chance for rain, but is devoid of
any significant synoptic forcing over central NC. Locally enhanced
waves of WAA will likely spread multi-layered cloudiness across the
area and accompany some light rain Fri night into Sat. The best
chances for rain may be tied very closely to the weak area of low
pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic,
where locally enhanced WAA and isentropic ascent would be maximized.
Ensemble-member pressure center plots from the EPS and GEFS still
show a large spread in track and speed with this wave so forecast
confidence remains low at this time.

Confidence briefly increases behind this wave as a parade of
modified high pressure systems shift across the Mid-Atlantic through
Mon night and keep the forecast dry and temperatures above normal.
The forecast may trend more active Tues onward as a closed-low,
which is forecast to be rotating around the Four Corners Region over
the upcoming weekend, tracks in our direction early to mid week.
Confidence is highly uncertain on timing and intensity with this
system and results in a low confidence forecast approaching the
holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 545 AM Wednesday...

A band of weakening showers will continue to spread east across
northern NC through mid morning bringing mainly VFR showers and
sprinkles to the northern TAF locations. Any lingering rain
should end at KINT and KGSO by 12Z or so and KRDU and KRWI
terminals by 14Z. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected today
and this evening. Later tonight, primarily after 06Z, an area
of MVFR to possibly IFR stratus will likely develop across the
northern Piedmont, especially the KRWI and KRDU terminals and
expand southwest. Light south to southwest winds at 5 to 10kts
this morning will veer to northwesterly this afternoon and
become northeasterly tonight.

A 40-45 kt southwesterly low level jet observed on tall tower
instrumentation early this morning will result in periods of
low- level wind shear through just after daybreak. The LLWS will
dissipate from west to east between 12Z and 14Z.

Outlook: Considerable cloudiness will lower and result in periods of
MVFR to potentially IFR ceilings early Thursday morning and again
Friday morning. A modest weather system may bring showers and
associated flight restrictions late Friday through Saturday evening.
Improving weather conditions are expected on Sunday. -Blaes

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...Blaes