Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
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867 FXUS62 KRAH 121754 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1250 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will hold over the Mid South and Southeast through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1250 PM Wednesday... Milder with diminishing SW breeze this evening, mainly clear to partly cloudy overnight. High pressure will remain over the deep south through tonight. A weak Appalachian surface lee trough will exist in the overall WSW flow. This will continue to be a dry flow; however, dew points are forecast to slowly rise into the 30s to near 40 late tonight. A weak upper level disturbance may create a few high level clouds overnight. Otherwise, it will be milder and dry tonight. Lows will be in the 37-42 range for the most part. SW winds will gust to 20-25 mph through the late afternoon, then decrease to 10 mph or less tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 1250 PM Wednesday... * Short period of marginal fire weather concerns possible Thurs afternoon as relative humidity values drop below 30% and wind gusts increase to 15 to 25 mph. Overall a quiet weather day is expected. A large orographic cirrus shield (or otherwise known as a standing wave cloud) will be draped across mostly across the northern half of the county warning area and result in overcast skies persisting through the morning hours. Model guidance is in good agreement that as the PV anomaly pivoting across the northern Mid-Atlantic will shift east through the early afternoon hours and gradually thin the overcast skies, likely retreating back to the immediate lee of the Appalachians into the evening hours. As the overcast skies thin, temperatures will continue to warm up to near normal for mid-November and peak in the 60s (low 60s northeast to upper 60s southwest). Thick overcast into the early afternoon should mitigate deeper mixing until mid-late afternoon, after which time winds will likely increase to frequent gusts 15-25 mph. Favorable downsloping northwest winds should also favor dew points dropping into the 20s to low 30s areawide. Marginal fire weather concerns will be possible Thurs afternoon as relative humidity values will be very dry (20-30%) through the afternoon hours. Frequent gusts should remain below the 25-30 mph threshold for increased fire danger statements at this time. Light stirring becoming mostly calm overnight should be favorable for excellent radiational cooling, but may be greatly dependent on opaqueness of cirrus cloud cover overnight. Trended forecast on the cooler side of guidance and results in mainly in the 30s areawide (warmest in urban areas). Pockets of sub-freezing temperatures across the rural Piedmont will be possible. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1250 PM Wednesday... High pressure will be over southern West Virginia Friday morning. A weak warm front will move through Friday, not bringing any precipitation to the area, but shifting the wind from the northwest to the southwest. That will bring warmer temperatures for the weekend before a cold front moves through late Sunday. This front should also pass through the region without precipitation, but will drop temperatures back towards more normal values. The forecast diverges a bit by Tuesday - while the GFS and GEFS show a cold front moving through with precipitation, the ECMWF and EPS are much slower with the front, keeping it to the west of the state through Wednesday afternoon. The current forecast will go with a slight chance of rain Tuesday and Tuesday night and dry weather on Wednesday. Highs will be in the 60s on Friday, rising into the 70s on Saturday and Sunday, then falling back into the 60s for the rest of the forecast. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s except for Saturday night when values will be in the 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1230 PM Wednesday... VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the next 24 hours, with no vsby restrictions. Surface winds will be westerly and gusty at 12 to 25 knots through late afternoon, then diminish to around 10 knots tonight. Looking beyond 12z Thu, VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all sites through Sun. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...RAH SHORT TERM...AS LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...RAH