748
FXUS62 KRAH 060513
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
110 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the southern Middle Atlantic states
ahead of a cold front that will move across the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Monday...

The surface pattern has been stagnant locally for several days, with
high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, extending back
west into the Carolinas and southeastern United States. While a cold
front developing into the Plains will move east into the Ohio River
Valley, the high pressure ridge should remain relatively unchanged.
While cloud cover should be slightly less than yesterday, highs are
only likely to increase by a degree or two compared to Sunday,
ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. However, this is still 5
to 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will rise a degree or two
compared to last night, although the lows are only a couple degrees
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 AM Monday...

As of Tuesday morning, low pressure will be near Chicago with a cold
front extending southwest into Texas. The low will continue to shift
east into New England, dragging the cold front across the
Appalachians. Tuesday should still be dry locally, with a minimal
chance of showers moving into the Triad Tuesday evening. The chance
for showers will extend farther southeast Tuesday night, although
the bulk of the rain should still remain to the northwest overnight.
Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week, with highs perhaps
inching up another degree or two. The increasing cloud cover will
result in a more notable warmup overnight, with all locations only
falling into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 110 AM Monday...

* Best chances for rain will be Wed/Wed night, otherwise dry weather
  expected. There is a non-zero chance of some rain in the east over
  the weekend.

* A significant drop in temperatures expected behind the cold front,
  with mainly below normal highs expected Thursday through Sunday.

Aloft, a trough will progress ewd across the region Wed/Wed night. A
trailing s/w will move esewd from the mid-MS Valley to the Southeast
US Thu/Thu night, while the sub-tropical ridge builds nwd over the
Plains/Front Range. Another s/w should track across the Great Lakes
or OH Valley Fri/Fri night, possibly merging with the s/w over the
Southeast, forming a larger low/trough somewhere over the East Coast
over the weekend, although details remain uncertain. At the surface,
the ridge will be pushed ewd and offshore as the cold front moves
into and through the area Wed/Wed night. As the ~1032 mb high
progresses ewd across the Great Lakes, srn Ontario and the Northeast
US, it will ridge swd into the area Thu/Fri. How long and where the
ridge lingers will depend on the the strength and location of a
coastal low, which is expected to develop off the Southeast US coast
Fri night/Sat, then deepen as it lifts nwd off the East Coast
through Sun. For now, it appears the cool, nly flow will persist
over much of the area through the weekend.

Precipitation: The best chance for any showers/possible storms will
be along and ahead of the cold front on Wed. GFS forecast soundings
show 200-500 J/Kg of MUCAPE, with about 30 kts effective shear
across much of the area Wed aft/eve and PWATS topping out around 1.8
inches. Forecast rainfall amounts have increased slightly from
yesterday, but are still roughly half an inch or less in most
places. The next chance for some rain will be over the weekend,
highest east, but will depend on the track and strength of the
coastal low.

Temperatures: Near to above normal ahead of the front on Wed/Wed
night, with highs ranging from low 70s north to low/mid 80s south
and lows ranging from upper 40s north to upper 50s south. There will
be a noticeable drop in temperatures behind the front, with highs
decreasing approx 10 degrees or so from Wed to Thu, and remaining
below normal on Fri. Some moderation back to near normal is expected
over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 AM Monday...

TAF period: With little change in airmass, a persistence forecast
would seem to be in order. The last two nights, RWI dropped to
IFR/LIFR visibilities, while RDU/FAY had brief visibility
reductions. Unfortunately, there is disagreement between guidance as
to the coverage of fog, and as a result, the 06Z TAF package is a
low confidence forecast. For the last 18 hours, guidance has
suggested IFR fog is possible as far west as INT/GSO, which did not
have any visibility reductions the last two nights. Will stay the
course with VFR forecast at INT/GSO, although the mixed guidance
suggests that some visibility reductions could occur in the Triad.
Farther east, where visibility drops have been observed, will
continue to forecast fog at RDU/RWI. Enough cloud cover remains over
FAY that there should not be enough radiational cooling for fog to
develop there tonight.

Outlook: Cannot rule out another period of fog Tuesday morning, then
the primary chance for restrictions and precipitation at all sites
will come with a cold front on Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Green