488
FXUS62 KRAH 150743
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the Southeast through today. A mostly
dry cold front will move through the area Sunday, followed by
Pacific high pressure Sunday night through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Saturday...

* Dry, warm, and becoming breezy as a moisture-starved cold front
  approaches from the west.

An amplifying mid/upper level trough will dive SE out of central
Canada across the Great Lakes and into the northern Mid-Atlantic,
offering only glancing influence across NC.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift south and
eastward across the southeastern US and northern Carribean, ahead of
a moisture-starved cold front that will reach the NC mountains late
tonight.

Airmass moderation will continue under low-level SWLY flow, with
highs rising into the 70-75 degree and BL dewpoints increasing into
the 40s. Winds will become breezy by the afternoon, with modest
gusts of 15 to 20 mph. A vorticity shear axis and weak height falls
overspreading the area will support periods of  considerable high
clouds.

Tonight, the arrival of a nocturnal ~50kt low-level jet will keep
the BL well mixed, maintaining steady SWLY winds of 10 to 15 mph.
Overnight lows will remain mild, in the lower to mid 50s, with the
potential for orographically enhanced cirrus overspread the northern
zones.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Saturday...

*Continued warm and windy Sunday with colder air arriving Sunday
night

A dry cold front will sweep across the area Sunday, followed by the
arrival of Pacific high pressure Sunday night.

The primary weather concerns will be the windy conditions both ahead
and immediately behind the front. Expect sustained winds of 15 to 20
mph with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph, occasionally reaching 35 to
40 mph. Aided by downslope warming, highs will once again climb into
the 70s, and may approach 80 across the Sandhills and southern
coastal plain.

Behind the front, dewpoints will drops sharply during the afternoon,
likely yielding afternoon RH values in the 25 to 30 percent range
across much of central NC. This may lead to an increased fire
danger.

Gustiness will subside Sunday evening, though CAA will keep winds
stirring overnight. Lows will fall into the 35 to 40 range.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 208 AM Saturday...

Key points this period...

1) Dry weather with seasonable temps Monday through Tuesday
afternoon: SFC High pressure and s/w ridging aloft will set the
stage for the aforementioned weather.

2) Brief opportunity for some light rain Tuesday evening:  A quick-
moving s/w trough passing across the Mid Atlantic region will offer
a brief chance for rain mainly Tuesday evening, particularly across
the northern half of central NC.

3) Mainly dry wx with above normal temps during the Wed-Thu
timeframe: In the wake of Tuesday evening`s s/w trough exiting the
region, a ridge will quickly amplify over the eastern US Wednesday
through Thursday, which should keep PoPs minimized and allow for WAA
and resulting above-normal temps.

4) Increasing PoPs late Friday:  The next s/w trough will lift from
the central Plain newd toward the Great Lakes.  In the process, a
cold front will approach our region and eventually move across
central NC sometime next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06 SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1142 PM Friday...

06Z Update: Added LLWS to each TAF site around 00-01Z Sunday to
account for the strong low-level jet and weak inversion expected to
develop tomorrow night.  While latest guidance suggests some sfc
mixing (gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible early Sunday), the jet at
2,000 ft appears to peak around 45 to 50 kts warranting a mention of
shear potential.

24-hour TAF period: VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24
hours. There is a threat for marginal low-level wind shear tonight
around RDU and RWI from about 04z to 10-11z as a stout inversion
develops just above the surface and a 35-40 kt southwesterly jet
develops at 1-2 kft. Otherwise, a few mid and high clouds are
expected tonight, with high cloud coverage increasing to broken and
overcast by Saturday afternoon. SW surface winds will be light
tonight (5 kts or less), increasing to 7-11 kts with gusts of 15-20
kts at times from late morning into the afternoon tomorrow.

Outlook:  Strong surface wind gusts of 25 to 30kts are expected
ahead of, and especially behind, a dry cold frontal passage during
the day on Sun. Mostly clear skies on Sun should result in excellent
mechanical mixing and result in light to moderate low-level
turbulence and may result in wind gusts as high as 35 kts. Some
isolated light showers may be possible immediately along the cold
front Sun, but confidence is low at this time. The next chance of
light rain and perhaps sub-VFR conditions comes on Tuesday/Tuesday
night, especially north, before drying out on Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield/CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...Luchetti/Danco