867
FXUS62 KRAH 121754
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1250 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will hold over the Mid South and Southeast through the
rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

Milder with diminishing SW breeze this evening, mainly clear to
partly cloudy overnight.

High pressure will remain over the deep south through tonight. A
weak Appalachian surface lee trough will exist in the overall WSW
flow. This will continue to be a dry flow; however, dew points are
forecast to slowly rise into the 30s to near 40 late tonight. A weak
upper level disturbance may create a few high level clouds
overnight. Otherwise, it will be milder and dry tonight. Lows will
be in the 37-42 range for the most part.

SW winds will gust to 20-25 mph through the late afternoon, then
decrease to 10 mph or less tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

* Short period of marginal fire weather concerns possible Thurs
  afternoon as relative humidity values drop below 30% and wind
  gusts increase to 15 to 25 mph.

Overall a quiet weather day is expected. A large orographic cirrus
shield (or otherwise known as a standing wave cloud) will be draped
across mostly across the northern half of the county warning area
and result in overcast skies persisting through the morning hours.
Model guidance is in good agreement that as the PV anomaly pivoting
across the northern Mid-Atlantic will shift east through the early
afternoon hours and gradually thin the overcast skies, likely
retreating back to the immediate lee of the Appalachians into the
evening hours.

As the overcast skies thin, temperatures will continue to warm up to
near normal for mid-November and peak in the 60s (low 60s northeast
to upper 60s southwest). Thick overcast into the early afternoon
should mitigate deeper mixing until mid-late afternoon, after which
time winds will likely increase to frequent gusts 15-25 mph.
Favorable downsloping northwest winds should also favor dew points
dropping into the 20s to low 30s areawide. Marginal fire weather
concerns will be possible Thurs afternoon as relative humidity
values will be very dry (20-30%) through the afternoon hours.
Frequent gusts should remain below the 25-30 mph threshold for
increased fire danger statements at this time.

Light stirring becoming mostly calm overnight should be favorable
for excellent radiational cooling, but may be greatly dependent on
opaqueness of cirrus cloud cover overnight. Trended forecast on the
cooler side of guidance and results in mainly in the 30s areawide
(warmest in urban areas). Pockets of sub-freezing temperatures
across the rural Piedmont will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Wednesday...

High pressure will be over southern West Virginia Friday morning. A
weak warm front will move through Friday, not bringing any
precipitation to the area, but shifting the wind from the northwest
to the southwest. That will bring warmer temperatures for the
weekend before a cold front moves through late Sunday. This front
should also pass through the region without precipitation, but will
drop temperatures back towards more normal values. The forecast
diverges a bit by Tuesday - while the GFS and GEFS show a cold front
moving through with precipitation, the ECMWF and EPS are much slower
with the front, keeping it to the west of the state through
Wednesday afternoon. The current forecast will go with a slight
chance of rain Tuesday and Tuesday night and dry weather on
Wednesday.

Highs will be in the 60s on Friday, rising into the 70s on Saturday
and Sunday, then falling back into the 60s for the rest of the
forecast. Lows will be in the upper 30s and 40s except for Saturday
night when values will be in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the next 24
hours, with no vsby restrictions. Surface winds will be westerly and
gusty at 12 to 25 knots through late afternoon, then diminish to
around 10 knots tonight.

Looking beyond 12z Thu, VFR conditions are likely to prevail at all
sites through Sun.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...RAH