216
FXUS62 KRAH 211816
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
115 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move northward into the region today. A cold front
will push southward through central North Carolina Saturday night.
Behind the front, high pressure will build in from the north Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 353 AM Friday...

Weak mid-level impulses and isentropic upglide continue to generate
scattered light rain across central NC this morning. Mostly trace to
a few hundreds of an inch of rain have been observed thus far.
However, a band of steadier rain is quickly approaching the Triad
this morning and should likely squeeze out a bit more (a few
hundreds to maybe a few tenths) as it moves across the western to
central Piedmont and Coastal Plain through late this morning. Expect
a relative lull in rain through much of this afternoon and early
evening. By later tonight, weak mid-level impulses and increasing
WAA should trigger additional light rain primarily along the NC/VA
border early before filling in further south through sunrise
Saturday morning. A few tenths of an inch of rain are expected
Friday night through 12Z Saturday.

Dense fog has developed just outside the southwestern Piedmont down
in SC this morning. Latest guidance has backed off advecting this
dense fog up into our southern Piedmont (cloud cover is pretty
extensive here as well). As such, think the fog chances may be more
limited than previously expected but can`t fully rule it out.
Otherwise expect high temperatures in the lower 60s (NE) to lower
70s (SW). Overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60 are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 354 AM Friday...

A potent short-wave and associated mid-level height falls will move
over central NC late Saturday afternoon and evening. Forcing from
this feature will trigger pre-frontal showers and storms across
central NC Saturday afternoon and evening.

Lingering light rain via weak mid-level impulses will likely be
ongoing along and east of US-1 early Saturday.  This initial band
will move east of central NC through mid to late morning. Dew points
in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected by afternoon, while
temperatures reach into the mid to upper 70s. If destabilization can
occur, models are hinting at upwards of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE
developing across areas south and east of Raleigh Saturday
afternoon.  Given the expected upper forcing, there is a good chance
for a band of showers and scattered storms to slide down from VA and
move ese across central NC through Saturday evening.  Shear
parameters are pretty potent, with bulk-layer shear of ~60 kts
expected Saturday afternoon. While simulated hodographs are largely
straight amongst models, the latest HREF does indicate some weak
clustering of mid-level helicity swaths in the Sandhills/Coastal
Plain. All in all, think the overall severe potential is low, but if
any stronger storm can develop there is plenty of strong kinematics
to work with and thus can`t rule an isolated stronger/organized
storm (primary concern would be hail if anything at all).

Any lingering showers/storms should sweep south of our area by
Saturday night.  A sfc cold front will then sweep across the area
late Saturday night/early Sunday morning drying things out.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

* Unsettled weather expected Tue through Wed night, but timing of
  highest rain chances is uncertain; no significant hazards expected.

* Likely dry and mild Sun/Mon; dry once again Thu/Fri but cooler.

Sun/Mon: The surface cold front should be settling to our S Sun,
with the mean mid level trough axis pushing off the East Coast as a
modestly amplified ridge builds in from the W. This places us within
general subsidence and rising heights aloft, favoring fair and dry
conditions. The incoming surface high from the W is continental in
nature, yielding slightly above normal thicknesses over central NC
as it builds in, its center tracking from AR/MO Sun morning to the
Mid Atlantic Mon morning before pushing off the Mid Atlantic coast
Mon evening/night. As such, temps should be mild but not
significantly deviated from normal, with highs generally in the 60s
to near 70 and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Tue-Wed night: While the timing details remain murky, it`s expected
that this period will be somewhat active, but likely not
particularly hazardous. The surface high moving out over the NW
Atlantic will put NC in a return flow pattern, with falling heights
aloft as the mid level ridge flattens and pushes off the Southeast
coast in response to a digging trough over the Dakotas and Upper
Midwest. The primary model differences appear to be with the
strength/amplitude of this Midwest trough, which in part will drive
its progression and that of the corresponding surface cold front.
The models with a stronger mid level trough/low are slower with the
cold front passage through central NC, doing so late Wed night or
early Thu morning, while the models with a weaker and more
progressive trough have a faster fropa, on Wed. As the core
components of this trough, including a closed low off Baja
California and energy over the NE Pacific, are over somewhat data-
sparse regions, we can`t identify a clear preferred solution at this
time, so will retain above-climo pops through this period, focusing
the better pops late Tue night and again Wed evening. It won`t be
raining this entire time, and instead we`re more likely to see
rounds of showers associated with passing jet streaks in the mean SW
flow ahead of the front. The thunder risk appears non-zero but low,
mostly ahead of the front and perhaps associated with an upper jet
streak entrance region, so will keep the mention of thunder as
isolated. Temps in this prefrontal WAA pattern are apt to be above
normal despite the general increase in clouds, although an increase
in moist upglide Tue as the surface high moves further offshore
might leave a cool stable pool in the NC Piedmont, reducing Tue high
temps there. This particular continental high will not contain very
low dewpoints, so the effects of any in situ upglide-induced CAD may
be muted. Will have around 60/low 60s for highs in the NW Tue, with
low 70s SE, followed by Wed highs mostly in the 70s.

Thu/Fri: As noted above, if the mid level trough and surface fropa
end up slower, we could see lingering clouds and pops Thanksgiving
Day morning, esp across the E and S. But overall we should trend
toward fair and dry conditions, with greater confidence in this on
Fri. Expect increasing sunshine Thanksgiving Day, although with the
incoming surface high of Canadian/Arctic origin, the CAA will keep
highs below normal, in the 50s to low 60s. Fri is likely to be even
cooler with highs of 50-57. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1235 PM Friday...

TAF period: There is high confidence that the next 24 hours will
begin with cig/vis restrictions and end with VFR conditions, but
there is low confidence in how long it will take for the
restrictions to ease. There have been widespread LIFR ceilings
through the morning with occasional rain, and while some additional
rain is possible during the afternoon, it will be light and spotty.
The TAFs indicate a slow rise in ceilings to VFR, but MVFR is most
likely to remain at RWI through the daytime hours into the evening.
Although the RWI TAF goes VFR at 00Z, some models are indicating
that there could be IFR ceilings just a county or two to the
northeast through Saturday morning, so confidence is not high that
once the ceilings rise to VFR that they will remain there. While a
light rain shower cannot be ruled out overnight, especially right
before sunrise Saturday, there is not enough confidence to single
out a particular time or terminal to include a rain mention. Some
marginal low-level wind shear will be possible at all sites, but
with speeds aloft only around 30 kt, do not have enough confidence
to add this into the forecast either. The wind will generally be
light out of the south-southwest through much of the forecast, then
will increase and veer to the west late Saturday morning.

Outlook: A cold front will bring a chance of showers, a slight
chance of thunderstorms, and a wind shift to the northwest Saturday
afternoon. Dry VFR conditions are expected Saturday night through
Monday night before a second cold front brings another chance of
rain and restrictions Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green