879
FXUS62 KRAH 140013
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
813 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid
Atlantic and the Carolinas through Monday, although a weak upper
level low settling over the Carolinas will bring periods of clouds
each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

* Quiet and dry.

Surface high pressure will continue to nose southward into NC
tonight, as a frontal zone holds well offshore. We`ve had sct-bkn
cumulus develop over the southern CWA, which should persist until
eventual dissipation with loss of heating toward nightfall, given
the deep dry air noted on ACARS soundings and WV imagery over the
region. High cloudiness continues to stream northward from
convection off GA/FL, and with the mid level shear axis holding over
the eastern Carolinas through tonight, we should continue to see
bouts of high cloudiness yielding fair skies over our eastern half.
With considerable dry air just off the surface, the risk of fog
tonight should be limited in areas to those typical isolated low
spots and near bodies of water, although some light predawn fog
can`t be ruled out near the VA border. Expect lows from the mid 50s
to around 60. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 124 PM Saturday...

Overall a fair weather day on Sunday with light NE winds (10 kt or
less)... some high clouds in the morning then perhaps increasing mid
and high clouds late... and highs in the lower 80s and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

The persistent upper trough aligned along the SE Coast will move
very little, with central NC on the more favorable drier west side
of the axis.  Models suggest a very weak backdoor front will slip
south into NC late in the day, but it will have little consequence
on our wx. Meanwhile, non-tropical sfc low pressure will be
positioned well to our east and offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 124 PM Saturday...

Regarding the aforementioned upper trough over the SE Coast and it`s
sfc low offshore... the GFS is farther east while the ECMWF and
Canadian models are a bit farther west.  The GFS solution is a drier
solution for central NC as it keeps the deeper clouds and rain just
to our east for the late-Monday through Wednesday period, while the
other models gradually spread off-and-on light rain across central
NC during that time.  The NBM offers a consensus with low-end PoPs
for that same time period. Five day QPF covering this time shows a
west to east gradient with highest rain amounts along and east of I-
95 (generally 1/2 to 1 inch) with lighter amounts west.

That trough will eventually lift out leaving fair weather and above
normal temps in its wake for the late-week period.  Another upper
trough is progged to approach the eastern US over the weekend, but
confidence in that period of the forecast is low given substantial
model differences with the finer details.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 810 PM Saturday...

24 Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions are expected to continue through
the 24 hour TAF period as surface high pressure continues to extend
into the area from the northeast. However, we will continue to see
some mid/high clouds spreading into the area from from the east, as
an offshore frontal zone and and upper level trough sitting over the
Mid Atlantic and eastern Carolinas will result in greater cloud
cover (sct-bkn) along and generally east of Hwy 1, affecting FAY/RWI
into RDU, but cloud bases will be VFR. Otherwise, quiet weather is
expected with generally light and variable winds tonight with
northeasterly winds in the 5 to 10 kt range on Sunday, with some
gusts into the 15 to 18 kt range across the eastern terminals during
the late morning into the afternoon (primarily KFAY and KRWI).

Outlook: VFR conditions are likely to dominate into early next week,
with fair skies, except for sct-bkn VFR clouds each afternoon. Mid
and high clouds are expected to increase with patchy afternoon
showers possible by late Monday/Monday night into Tue/Wed as a weak
upper level low settles over the Carolinas.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...BSD