980
FXUS62 KRAH 231801
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
101 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north today and Monday, then
move off the Mid Atlantic coast Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

Aloft, nwly flow will prevail over central NC through tonight. As a
nrn stream s/w tracks ese off the New England coast, a mid/upper
disturbance will track across the area, ahead of the sub-tropical
ridge approaching from the west. At the surface, a dry, reinforcing
cold front will slide south across the area this eve/tonight, with
high pressure building into the region behind it. Dry weather will
prevail through tonight, with perhaps a few mid-high clouds tonight
associated with the disturbance aloft. Highs mainly in the 60s
today. Winds could get a bit breezy with the dry cold fropa this eve
and remain a bit stirred into tonight, then taper off across the
north late tonight/early Mon morning. Lows tonight should generally
range from mid/upper 30s north to low 40s south, but will depend on
the winds. If winds go calm earlier and/or over a greater area,
temps could be a couple/few degrees lower in those places. Likewise,
if winds do not taper off across the north as expected, lows may be
a couple/few degrees higher there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

Overview: The sub-tropical ridge will progress across the region on
Mon, and off the East Coast Mon night as a potent s/w tracks
eastward from the central Plains to the mid-MS Valley. At the
surface, high pressure will move ewd across the region Mon and
offshore Mon night. Expect increasing high clouds Mon night as the
s/w approaches from the west, which should limit the radiational
cooling, especially west. Otherwise, dry weather and seasonably warm
temperatures are expected, with highs mainly in the low to mid 60s
and lows ranging from mid/upper 30s NE to low/mid 40s SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM Sunday...

A warm front will lift through the area on Tuesday with dew points
quickly increasing into the 50s and lower-60s and high temperatures
in the lower-60s far NW to mid-70s far SE. Isentropic upglide will
result in overcast skies and a chance for patchy light rain.
Meanwhile a shortwave trough and associated surface low will move
ENE from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes on Tuesday and
Tuesday night. It will then track into southern Ontario and Quebec
on Wednesday and Thursday, with the associated shortwave closing off
into a mid/upper low during this time. The GFS and ECMWF are now in
much better agreement regarding the timing and track of this system,
bringing the associated cold front through central NC on Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Precipitation will turn more convective in
nature on Tuesday night as the air mass turns more moist and
unstable. The best chance of showers continues to be on Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Lows will only drop into the mid-50s to
60. Some precipitation could linger on Wednesday afternoon,
particularly in the south and east, before ending on Wednesday night
behind the frontal passage. Forecast rainfall amounts on Tuesday and
Wednesday range from around half an inch in the far north to a tenth
to quarter inch in the SE on average, though locally higher amounts
will be possible. Despite marginal instability (around 500 J/kg of
CAPE or less), isolated storms can`t be ruled out on Tuesday night
and Wednesday as shear will be quite strong with 50-70 kts of mid-
level flow. Wednesday`s forecast highs range from upper-60s to mid-
70s, with lows Wednesday night in the mid-30s to mid-40s.

Canadian/Arctic high pressure building in from the west will bring a
return to dry and mostly sunny but much cooler conditions from
Thursday through Saturday. The coolest day looks to be Friday when
the high makes its closest approach. High temperatures will only be
in the upper-40s to lower-50s (7-12 degrees below normal) and lows
Friday night will drop into the mid-20s to 30. Thursday and Saturday
will be a few degrees milder on average but still cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. High pressure over
the region will result in light to calm winds and mostly clear
skies.

Outlook: IFR-MVFR ceilings and patchy light rain will likely
overspread the Piedmont ahead of a retreating warm front Tue
morning. A chance of rain, increasingly convective in nature, and
also flight restrictions, are expected later Tue through Wed, as a
strong frontal system traverses the region.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CA/MWS