589
FXUS62 KRAH 091807
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
106 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A polar front will sweep across the region early tonight. A vigorous
mid and upper-level trough and Arctic cold front will then move
across the region late Monday into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 455 AM Sunday...

* Unseasonably mild today, with scattered afternoon-evening
  convection

* Much cooler, and blustery, tonight-Mon morning

The polar vortex now over ON, with associated 00Z-observed 500 mb
heights there in the 5th-10th percentile, will split, with one piece
forecast to dig sharply swd into the Midwest by 12Z Mon, while the
other lifts newd across wrn QC. A few, preceding shortwave
perturbations now evident in GOES-E WV data from nrn IN wswwd to nrn
KS, then nnwwd into the wrn Dakotas, will form a vigorous shortwave
trough axis that will pivot ewd and extend from srn QC sswd across
the Middle and South Atlantic and cntl Gulf Coast by 12Z Mon. An
associated high amplitude trough will extend through these features
and yield sharply falling heights and intense sswly flow in the
mid/upr-levels across the Carolinas. A deep, moist axis
characterized by PWs of 150-175% of normal over the ern Carolinas
today will be swept ewd and offshore tonight.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary front now bisecting cntl NC from
nne to wsw will retreat nwd into VA today, with following, breezy
and unseasonably mild and humid sswly flow that will develop across
cntl NC, with associated warm sector surface dewpoints likely to
range from mid-upr 50s F over the nw Piedmont to mid 60s F in the
Coastal Plain. Resultant, weak MLCAPE with diurnal heating into the
70s will display a similar distribution and range from a 250-500
J/kg over the nw Piedmont to 750-1000 J/kg in the Coastal Plain.
Meanwhile, a 1007 mb low now over cntl IN will migrate ewd and
across the OH Valley this morning and cntl Appalachians, nrn Middle
Atlantic, and srn new England tonight, while deepening perhaps a
couple of millibars. A trailing, polar front now stretching through
the TN Valley, cntl MS and LA, and coastal TX, will fracture as it
encounters the Appalachians. The cold/dense air along the
nrn/poleward segment will be slowed by the mountains and spill
across the NC Foothills and nw Piedmont late this afternoon-early
evening, then across cntl NC later this evening. The srn/equatorward
segment will meanwhile move more quickly and unimpeded around the
srn Appalachians and across GA today and SC by this evening. Strong
CAA and blustery nwly winds winds will result across cntl NC
tonight.

Isolated to widely scattered, low-topped convection with small hail
and gusty winds will probably develop along the nrn cold frontal
segment, and across the axis of weaker instability but cooler
temperatures aloft and lower freezing levels, over nw Piedmont
between 21-00Z, then weaken while progressing ewd and across the nrn
Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain through the rest of the evening. A
separate, broken band of convection will probably develop along the
srn frontal segment and across ern GA and e-cntl SC during the
afternoon and early evening, then continue to develop/spread nnewd
and across the ern Sandhills and Coastal Plain, in the axis of
relatively stronger instability and deeper moisture (ie. less dry
air entrainment) through the evening. While a conditional severe
threat will exist there, given relatively more favorable
thermodynamics than over the Piedmont, associated updrafts in this
regime may not be robust enough to interact favorably with extreme
shear characterized by generally long and straight forecast
hodographs. If a cell or two were able to deepen and persist through
those areas, a risk of damaging wind gusts and marginally severe
hail would result.

It will otherwise turn sharply cooler tonight, though generally near
the 30-year average, with blustery nwly winds that will usher a
fresh cP airmass across the area by Mon morning. Low temperatures
will likely range from upr 30s to mid/upr 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 208 AM Sunday...

* Freeze Watch in effect Monday evening through Tue morning

* Quick burst of light rain and snow possible with the Arctic Front
  Mon night

The continental polar front will be well east of the coast by Mon
morning. The true Arctic air, however, will still be hung up
along/west of the NC mountains. That Arctic front will advance
through Mon night, coincident with low-level thicknesses dropping to
near 1276 m, well below normal for mid-November.

High temperatures will be some 12 to 18 degrees below normal,
ranging from the mid-upper 40s NW to mid 50s SE. Northwest winds
during the day will gust at times to 20-25 mph.

Come Monday night, a strong vort max tied to the larger trough over
the Mid-Atlantic region will swing through central and eastern
portions of NC, in conjunction with the Arctic boundary. Model
forecasts depict a strong PV anomaly with the shortwave. Point
soundings from the GFS also depict steep lapse rates and deep
saturation in the dendritic growth layer. We certainly could see a
quick burst of rain changing to some brief light snow or flurries
Mon night with the dynamic nature to the system. It appears the
favored area would be mainly along/north of US-64. Any snow
accumulation, if any, would be minor and confined to elevated
surfaces given warm ground temperatures.

Outside of any precip chances, it will be rather brisk with NW wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph, weakening by early Tue, resulting in wind
chills in the mid to upper teens. Overnight lows were adjusted down
given the airmass, with low to mid 20s in the west and upper 20s to
near 30 in the SE. As a result, we hoisted a Freeze Watch for all of
central NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 208 AM Sunday...

* Fire concerns Tue, Wed, and Thu with gusty winds and low relative
  humidity

The deep and vigorous upper trough on Mon exits off the Eastern
Seaboard Tue morning/afternoon. A NW flow aloft will transition to
WNW Tue night through Thu as troughing persists across the Great
Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure over
the Deep South will be flanked by low pressure over Canada. The
Arctic airmass will be well entrenched over the area Tue, with highs
some 14-18 degrees below normal in the mid to upper 40s and lows in
the upper 20s to low 30s Tue night. Highs will trend warmer Wed and
Thu as SW to W flow returns with highs in the low to mid 60s.

Depending on how much additional rain falls Sun, we will need to
keep a close eye on fire danger concerns Tue, Wed, and Thu given
gusty winds of 25-30 mph combined with RH levels in the upper 20s to
mid 30s.

High pressure over the southern Appalachians Fri will slide south as
it appears another cold front, this time a backdoor one, may slide
south late Fri or early Sat, with some guidance depicting a 1030 mb
Polar high diving south from Canada. Highs slightly above normal Fri
in the mid to upper 60s may trend back to below average if that
front verifies.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 106 PM Sunday...

Periods of MVFR ceilings may persist for the next few hours, but
generally expecting cloud bases to lift to VFR by late this
afternoon.  Expect swly sfc flow of 15 to 25 kts to persist this
afternoon ahead of a strong polar cold front. The front will enter
the Triad around ~23Z and spread east through KRDU/KFAY around ~02Z
and KRWI ~04Z.  Some isolated convection may generate along the
front near KINT/KGSO this afternoon which could create brief sub-VFR
conditions and maybe isolated small hail. Otherwise, expect showers
and a few storms to blossom across eastern areas later this evening
and overnight before clearing east by Monday morning.

Expect post-frontal nwly gusts as high as 25 to 35 kts to stay up
much of the night and through the end of the 24 hr TAF period. Winds
will weaken a bit with time Monday afternoon and evening.

Outlook: A vigorous trough aloft and accompanying Arctic, surface
cold front will move across the region late Mon and Mon night, with
a renewed surge of nwly gustiness, widespread virga, and patches of
flight restrictions in light snow at the surface.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...AK
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...Luchetti/MWS