837
FXUS65 KREV 172214
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
214 PM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mountain snow and valley rain continues today, along with
  breezy winds and a colder airmass.

* Potential for wrap-around showers to fill in over the Sierra Front
  exists this evening, but confidence on precipitation types and
  snow levels is still low.

* Looking ahead, a brief break for Wednesday will be followed by
  another system for late week, then another break scheduled for
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This series of systems has given our forecasters a tough time, so we
have low confidence those raindrops on your windows aren`t our
tears. Today this system looks to swing to the south of the Sierra,
but just how far south? Then, ensembles and deterministic runs have
varying solutions that either bring the low up along the eastern
Sierra Front, bringing the chance for snow to the Reno-Carson
City-Minden area, as well into the foothills near Virginia City.
You may be wondering how much snow, well, so are we. The solutions
range from all rain, to a rain/snow mix, to a range of 0.5" to 2"
for elevations above 5000-5500 feet. But, there is a 1000 foot
range for the snow levels in the ensembles, so that might adjust
to 6000-6500 feet, and yet other ensembles keep the snow upward
of 7000 feet. Basically, be ready for any of the solutions to be
correct. Our forecasting discussions this morning have centered
around the probability of snow in the foothills and valleys, and
the actual outcome hinging upon snow levels and snow timing.

With all that being said, there are still other solutions that sweep
the low pressure center out further east, which would negate
everything I wrote above and shift all this action out to the Basin
and Range. Now, where is that Magic 8 Ball?

Now for the boom/bust scenario along the Sierra Crest, which could
bring snow totals on the bust end of 8" to 12". The boom scenario
would deliver 18" to 24", a healthy start to the Sierra snow season.
The truth likely lies somewhere between these scenarios, so 12" to
18" above 6500 feet is forecasted in this situation. As the low
pivots around the southern Sierra, enhanced snowfall could bring
20" to 26" of fresh snow to the White Mountains. For Mono County,
along and east of US-395, snow amounts could range 1" to 6".

What we can say with some conviction is that there will be a break
on Wednesday, with another system on the way for Thursday into
Friday. This one looks to be less pesky to nail details down, with
snow amounts along the Sierra generally 1" to 6" and limited
spillover for western Nevada valleys. HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

* MVFR conditions with isolated IFR this afternoon for Sierra
  terminals due to low clouds and snowfall. As the system slides
  south of the Sierra, valley terminals may see fluctuation
  between VFR and sub-VFR conditions as rain showers coupled with
  low fog and stratus could obscure VIS.

* Mountain obscuration will be present across the Sierra through
  Tuesday, along with moderate turbulence for surface to FL140 and
  then FL180 to FL350 levels.

* FZFG is possible for Sierra terminals as moisture builds and
  temperatures fall. KMMH has had intermittent fog already, and we
  expect KTRK to develop fog around 06z Tuesday and linger though
  16- 17z Tuesday. HRICH

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday CAZ073.

&&

$$