412
FXUS65 KREV 171306
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
506 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A colder storm continues today, bringing cool temperatures with
  more rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds.

* Wrap-around rain and mountain snow is forecast to continue into
  Tuesday with lower confidence currently seen for higher
  impacts in the region.

* Following a precipitation break on Wednesday, rain and mountain
  snow chances look to return by early Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Looking at the latest RAP upper air analysis, an upper low is
currently just off the coast of northern CA causing the CWA to have
a generally southerly flow aloft. Going through the rest of the day,
forecast guidance shows the Pacific low traveling south along the CA
coast. With this setup aloft, the ongoing precipitation currently
seen in CA looks to spread into the Tahoe region and the Eastern
Sierra this morning. As the latest Winter Storm Severity Index
(WSSI) highlights potential minor to moderate impacts possible at
higher elevations, the Winter Weather Advisories for these areas
remain in effect for today (and going into tomorrow for the Eastern
Sierra). For more details on these advisories, the WSSI, and latest
snowfall totals: please visit weather.gov/rev/winter. Please use
caution if traveling through these areas. NE CA sees good chances
(60-80%) for light snow today as well, but not anticipating any
snow accumulation that would merit an advisory. Snow levels look
to start around 6.5kft this morning in the Sierra before dropping
to around 5.5-6 kft by the late afternoon. The precipitation
chances expect to cross the CA/NV state border by this afternoon
so that the Reno-Carson City-Virginia City-Minden area starts to
see their share. However, the forecast calls for mostly rain with
the some potential of snow mixing in overnight when snow levels
drop. Not anticipating any major impacts at this time, but slick
roads are possible. Daytime highs for today look to be similar to
those seen on Sunday being in the middle 40s to middle 50s in
western NV while Sierra communities see highs in the 30s and 40s.
Cooler overnight low temperatures in the 20s and 30s can be
expected once again as well.

On Tuesday, confidence in seeing a Tonopah low setup looks to have
lowered a bit (but not completely disappeared) in recent model
ensemble runs. The favored track now seems to have the low cut
across SoCal and make its way near Las Vegas or south of it. As
result: it looks like the greater precipitation impacts may stay
south of our area. The exception to this rule may be in Mono
County as the advisory continues through Tuesday morning. Precipitation
continues into the morning hours for areas south of I-80 then
transition to south of US-50 by Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels
continue to be around 5.5-6 kft in the morning, but gradually rise
as the day progresses. High temperatures are forecast to a few
degrees warmer than those on Monday with overnight low
temperatures being a few degrees cooler since cloud cover expects
to decrease going through the day. The first 32F low temperature
of the season could be recorded at the Reno-Tahoe International
Airport as the latest NBM probabilities show a 60-70% chance.

On Wednesday, forecast guidance shows a ridge moving over the Reno
CWA allowing for some drier conditions as the aforementioned low
moves farther east. However, this respite does not last too long as
another Pacific low is seen in extended guidance by late Wednesday
and Thursday. Will be monitoring this potential system going forward
as well as it could potentially bring another round of Sierra snow
later in the week. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

Low pressure currently off the coast of N CA is expected to travel
down the CA coast today allowing for rain and mountain snow chances
for the region. The precipitation chances look to begin this morning
in the Sierra and then spread into W NV by the afternoon hours.
Relatively light surface winds at TAF sites are also in the
forecast with this system though ridge winds could gust up to
35-40 mph.

With these expected weather conditions, W NV terminals will see MVFR
start around 18-20Z due to rain in the area along with associated
lower cloud ceilings beginning a short time ahead of this. The
latest HRRR run shows precipitation persisting through the rest
of the TAF period with the potential for some light snow being
mixed in overnight which may cause sub-VFR conditions.

As the precipitation is forecast to arrive earlier at Sierra TAF
sites, KTRK and KTVL may see MVFR visibilities this morning ahead of
IFR conditions by around 18Z when wintry precipitation may
intensify a bit. While rain may mix into the precipitation during
the afternoon hours, visibility may not improve along with sub-
VFR cloud decks. While KMMH looks to continue to have FZFG through
this morning causing LIFR VIS/CIGs at times before snow chances
arrive around 15Z. Snow intensity at KMMH could potentially
increase through the afternoon and evening causing lower
visibilities. Will continue to watch for signs of this occurring
and adjust future TAFs as needed. -078

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ072.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST Tuesday CAZ073.

&&

$$