854
FXUS65 KREV 081049
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
249 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A warming trend continues with relatively light winds and dry
  conditions through the weekend.

* The warming trend will peak on Monday with many locations
  receiving potentially record-setting high temperatures.

* A more active storm pattern looks to return late next week, but
  current confidence is lower on rain, snow, and wind impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Our lovely fall weather is here to stay for a little while and
should make for a great weekend. This morning, we do have some
shallow freezing fog up in the Martis Valley and around KTRK that
should dissipate by 8-9am. Otherwise, high pressure continues to
build in and should give us some record-threatening temperatures
by Monday. The current record high temp at KRNO on Monday is 74
degrees. We currently have an 80% chance to tie and 50-60% chance
to break it. Other than the warm temps, we`ll have some light
winds and sunny skies through Wednesday.

Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, there are signs of our next
weather system moving in. A positively tilted Pacific NW upper
level trough looks to move that high pressure out of the way late
next week. GFS and EC are in pretty good agreement right now on
the timing, location, and evolution of this storm which is
refreshing to see this far out. As the leading edge of the cold
front moves over the Sierra and into our CWA, the winds will peak
first some time Thursday, then the rain and high elevation snow
will follow. As of right now, this does look like another
relatively warm storm with snow levels down to 7500-8000`, but
that is very likely to change as we get closer. As alluded to in
the previous AFD, the transport vectors on the GEFS IVT plume are
pointed SSW to NNE, which does not favor very much spillover into
the Sierra Front. This can be double checked by looking at the
700mb winds, which are also pointed NNE. Ideally, you`d want to
see vectors SW to NE or W to E for optimal spillover potential.
Finally, our blended guidance is trying its best that far out.
However, I fully expect our current forecast for late next week to
change slightly, as confidence is still fairly low for exact
timing, wind speeds, and rain and snow amounts.

-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light easterly winds will resume today for all
terminals. This morning there is some dense freezing fog locked
in at KTRK with VIS down to 1/4SM which should dissipate by
16-17z.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$