540
FXUS65 KRIW 061708
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1008 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of moderate to heavy snow continue (70-90% chance)
  through the late morning/early afternoon across western
  Wyoming and the western Bighorns. Thus, Winter Weather
  Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect.

- Gusty winds of 30 to 50 mph, with wind prone locations seeing
  up to 60 mph, are expected (80-90%) across western and
  southern Wyoming and the Wind River Basin through the day
  today.

- Above normal temperatures are looking favorable Sunday through
  most of next week with strong winds by midweek. Snow chances
  (60- 90%) remain confined to western Wyoming.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

A strong, 120kt to 130kt upper level jet continues to advect
moisture rich air into the Intermountain West early this morning.
Wyoming is in the left-exit region of this upper level jet, a region
where upper level divergence and lift is maximized. These favorable
upper level dynamics combined with abundant moisture (above the
climatological 90th percentile) will continue support periods of
moderate to heavy snowfall across western Wyoming and the western
Bighorn Mountains today. Thus, no changes have been made to the
Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings. Additional
snowfall amounts over the Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains and the
Salt River and Wyoming Ranges range from 5 to 12 inches, with higher
elevations seeing up to 20 inches, through the early afternoon. The
snow show for the western Bighorns is expected to continue with
possible (60-80% chance) snowfall rates of 1"/hour from 5AM to noon
today. These high snowfall rates are partially due to favorable
upsloping across the western Bighorns. Total snow accumulations of 8
to 15 inches are likely (80% chance) across the western Bighorns
through sunset today. Periods of snow are also possible (30-50%
chance) across the eastern Bighorn Basin through sunset.

Additional snow accumulations across Jackson and Star Valleys,
Yellowstone National Park, and the Upper Green River Basin range
from 1 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts across foothill
areas and higher elevations of Yellowstone. Although these amounts
may seem minimal, webcams across these areas show snow covered roads
and reduced visibilities due to gusty winds. Because these conditions
are expected to continue through the morning, the Winter Weather
Advisories remain in effect. The western Wind River and Absaroka
Mountains have an 60-80% chance of 8 to 15 inches through the
morning. For all of western Wyoming, the periods of moderate to
heavy snow should end by late morning/early afternoon as drier air
begins to move in and support aloft weakens slightly (upper jet
reduces speed to 80kts-100kts).

The other story this morning are gusty winds across much of the
area. 2AM SPC Mesoscale Analysis page shows winds of 40 to 50kts
across the much of Wyoming. These winds are look to somewhat be
translating down to the surface with observations showing gusts of
25 to 45 mph, with isolated gusts above 50 mph in wind prone areas.
These 700mb winds are forecasted to increase to 50 to 65kts behind a
weak boundary through the early afternoon. This means winds at the
surface are forecast to gust 40 to 50 mph, with wind prone locations
seeing gusts of or above 60 mph during this time. No wind highlights
have been added given where Wyoming is in proximity to the upper
level jet and a weak diurnal inversion is just strong enough to
hinder full mixing. By early afternoon, mean 700mb winds decrease to
25 to 35kts across the area as the upper level jet weakens. By this
time, mixing will allow these winds to translate to the surface so
expect a gusty conditions through the afternoon and overnight hours,
especially across the Wind River Basin, the Absarokas, and the
southern half of Wyoming.

There is good consensus that ridging will begin to shift into the
region on Sunday and cut off the widespread abundant moisture that
we have been seeing the past few days. Snow chances (40-80%) on
Sunday will be confined to western Wyoming given favorable
orographics. Elsewhere, a mild day can be expected with slightly
above normal temperatures. A cold front is on track to traverse the
area Sunday night into Monday with snow chances (60-90%) across the
west. However, this cold front will do the opposite of cool us down.
Mean 700mb temperatures are currently forecast between 0C and -5C
Monday through at least Thursday. This reflects widespread high
temperatures between 40 and 50 degrees. This is 10 to 20 degrees
above normal for mid December! A weather system looks to move
through the region Wednesday and with warm temperatures this
means some areas would see rain as opposed to snow. As for wind,
Tuesday through Thursday look to also be gusty with early
signal of a 130kt upper level jet overhead. However, these
temperatures and winds are subject to change given we are 3 to 6
days out.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1008 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

West of the Divide...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS Terminals.

Snow chances continue through the afternoon, especially at KJAC,
where MVFR to IFR conditions should prevail. There may be occasional
periods of VFR if lighter snow moves over. Snow at KJAC should come
to an end around 04z this evening, though very light snow could
persist overnight. A better indication of snow comes Sunday morning,
around 16z or 17z.

Elsewhere, there will be snow showers around, but chances will
generally be 20 to 30 percent, so have largely left mention out of
the TAFs after the first few hours. Any snow shower that does impact
a terminal should be of short duration.

East of the Divide...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL Terminals.

VFR conditions prevail through the period. A stray snow shower could
briefly impact a terminal, but chances remain less than 30 percent
for most sites. The exception may be at KCOD or KWRL, where chances
are closer to 30 or 40 percent, so have included PROB30 groups for
heavier snow shower chances. These chances should end by 00z or
shortly after. Otherwise, west wind will be the main hazard through
the period, though lessens some overnight.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for
WYZ001-002-013-014-023-025.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ008.

Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ012-
024.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gerhardt
AVIATION...Wittmann