954
FXUS65 KRIW 301057
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
357 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weather system will bring mainly light snow to southern and
  southwestern Wyoming today and this evening.

- Tomorrow will be a dry and somewhat milder day.

- A couple of systems will bring additional chances for snow on
  Tuesday and the end of the week, although details are still
  fairly uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

It is a quiet, but rather cold night here at the humble
Riverton weather abode. Some locations are having their coldest
temperatures so far this season. Things will turn a bit more
active again today though.

The culprit for this is a weak area of low pressure that will drop
across Idaho and then into Utah and Colorado today. This does
not look like a big storm for us given that the system is fairly
moisture starved and the best dynamics will remain to the south
of Wyoming. As a result, snowfall amounts look relatively
small. Ensemble guidance gives at most a 1 in 3 chance of 2
inches or more in the southern Star Valley and southern Lincoln
County, with most other lower elevation locations having at
most a 1 in 2 chance of an inch of snow. Nevertheless, there
could be some impacts on a busy travel day at the end of the
Thanksgiving holiday weekend, including Interstate 80. Not
enough for an advisory though. The highest amounts will occur in
the Salt and Wyoming Ranges, but even here there is only at
most a 1 in 3 chance of 4 inches across the higher peaks with a
near zero chance of 6 inches. As for elsewhere, a few snow
showers could jump the Divide but any amounts east of the
Divide would likely be slim to none. The time of most impacts
would be from around 9 am to 4 pm, with all snow ending by
midnight tonight as the system moves away to the south and east.
Otherwise, expect another cold day with temperatures averaging
5 to 10 degrees below normal under mostly cloudy/overcast skies.

High pressure should bring a dry start to the work week on Monday
with temperatures climbing closer to seasonal normals, as our
air mass modifies a bit. There will be a gusty wind in the
Wind Corridor from Rock Springs through Casper ahead of the
next weather system. This system will bring impacts for Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Most areas have the potential for more
accumulating snow. Ensemble guidance gives much of northern and
central Wyoming at least a 1 out of 3 chance of 2 inches of snow
or more, although again this does not look like a major storm,
with the chance of 6 inches or more generally less than 1 out of
4 except in the mountains. The problem with this system is that
there are a lot of moving parts and guidance still has a rather
substantial spread on most aspects including timing and
placement of the heavier snow. So, confidence is fairly high
there will be some snow, but exact details are still uncertain.
Then, after a dry Thursday, another system may approach for the
end of the week and next weekend. Like Tuesday`s system, there
is still a decent spread in guidance and details are difficult
to resolve this far out. Temperatures should average fairly
close to seasonal normals, with the coldest temperatures
expected Wednesday behind the next cold front. However, no
arctic outbreaks are expected for the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

West of the Continental Divide...KJAC/KRKS/KPNA/KBPI Terminals

A quick-moving shortwave will rotate across southwest Wyoming with
the greatest impacts during the day Sunday. VFR conditions begin to
deteriorate between 13Z-16Z with IFR/MVFR conditions developing
around 16Z at KBPI/KPNA and 18Z at KRKS. The north end of this
wave wraps around to the vicinity of KJAC. Current trends keep
MVFR to the south of KJAC, so only have PROB30 low-end VFR
conditions from 15Z to 19Z. Conditions slowly improve from
north- to-south between 21Z and 00Z as the wave pushes south
over CO. VFR conditions follows at all terminals, although the
Sunday night potential for fog will need to be monitored at
KBPI/KPNA. Mountains frequently obscured from 15Z to 23Z.

East of the Continental Divide...KCPR/KCOD/KRIW/KLND/KWRL Terminals

Impacts from a quick-hitting shortwave moving through southwest
Wyoming will be limited to lower-end VFR ceilings in the central
basins during the midday hours Sunday. There could be a few snow
showers spilling over the Divide near KLND after 17Z, with a 30
percent chance for MVFR conditions. Light snow will also push up
from the south over KCPR, but impacts will be limited to marginal
VFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions reign through the
period. Mountain top obscurations occur through 22Z. Cloud
cover dissipates from north-to- south after 22Z with high cirrus
clouds over the area by 03Z.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZLC and ZDV for
the latest information on icing, turbulence, and smoke forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...LaVoie/CNJ