Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
000
FXUS65 KRIW 191128
AFDRIW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
528 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure hold firm across the area through Wednesday,
with mild temperatures and clear skies. (AKA beautiful Spring
weather)
- A shortwave brings a chance for scattered rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms on Thursday, and strong wind.
- High pressure attempts to build in on Friday, but this will be
short-lived as a large trough comes barreling in this weekend.
This trough will bring rain/snow chances, cooler temperatures,
and breezy conditions to the Cowboy State through Monday at
the very least.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Quiet, mild weather will continue today through Wednesday as high
pressure remains situated over the region. A shortwave will deal a
glancing blow to the area on Thursday as it passes through Montana.
It looks like there will be some instability, so a rumble of thunder
or two is possible across northern portions of the area.
Temperatures will be warm enough for all rain across lower
elevations, but some minor snow accumulations are possible at
elevations above 7k ft. QPF amounts will be on the light side, with
the northern half of the area seeing up to about 0.1" and the
southern half of the area generally expected to receive up to 0.01".
The pressure gradient will tighten substantially on Thursday as the
shortwave passes through the region, so wind is expected to be
quite strong across the area.
Another ridge attempts to build into the region on Friday, but would
be short-lived as the next trough flattens it/pushes it east. This
trough is expected to hang around for an extended period of time, so
from about Saturday through Tuesday is likely (70%) to be unsettled
across the Cowboy State. A couple of upper-lows in this trough are
expected to be the main weather makers during this time. Overall,
the upper-lows do look like they will progress at a decent rate, so
not looking at a large-scale weather system that will dump a ton of
snow/rain. In fact, QPF amounts are quite mediocre at this time,
especially east of the Continental Divide. Temperatures will drop
significantly with a cold front Saturday night into Sunday as the
trough moves in, but for most lower elevations any snow that falls
should melt on contact thanks to the warm ground from the warmer
weather this week. Some snow accumulation is possible across Star
Valley and The Jackson Valley where temperatures haven`t been/won`t
be as warm. Saturday should be a breezy day as the pressure gradient
tightens in response to the approaching trough.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours, with nearly
clear skies and light winds. Any cloud cover will be restricted
to high cirrus overnight tonight, mainly for northern sites.
&&
.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rowe
AVIATION...Straub