819
FXUS61 KRLX 130005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
805 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms through the first half of the work week could
contain heavy downpours. Briefly dry Thursday, and then more
showers and storms Thursday night into this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 805 PM Monday...

Reduced the chance for thunderstorms tonight to none for most
of the night across much of the area, the best chance being this
evening south, as thunderstorms could still form in the band of
showers pushing up into the Tug Fork area. Only minor
adjustments were made to the general PoP forecast, which
reflects the most persistent showers over northeast portions of
the forecast area through Tuesday morning, before the diurnal
uptick with the approaching mid/upper-level low Tuesday
afternoon.

As of 1230 PM Monday...

A stacked upper low pressure system is situated in the deep
south with a moisture funnel aiming directly at us. This feature
will slide closer to our region by overnight/Tuesday morning
with possibly a lull from numerous shower activity. Thunderstorm
chances will still be on the table through this evening and
then a lull overnight with possible activity again tomorrow.
With not much CAPE, but enough to develop thunderstorms, only
they have not been prevalent just yet across the area. The main
factor with a very moist column and high PWATS will be heavy
downpours possible throughout the period. This will likely be
few and far between considering we have not had much in the way
of heavy downpours either, but under a thunderstorm one can
expect them.

As the low positions itself just off to our southwest a surface
trough axis should drape across our area which will provide
additional lift to maintain numerous shower activity starting
in the late morning. Temperatures will get to just below
seasonable for todays highs and will stay elevated above
seasonable overnight. A warming trend will then commence on
Tuesday with temperatures getting slightly above seasonable.

More thunderstorm activity, generally diurnal in nature, and
greater QPF are forecast for tomorrow afternoon and evening
with another lull expected overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1212 PM Monday...

Low pressure will be centered over southwest Virginia Wednesday, and
scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain a threat. Very weak
shear of less than 20 kts should keep thunderstorms below severe
criteria.

Low pressure should exit to the east Thursday, and ridging aloft
should provide dry weather for a majority of the day. A very warm
day is expected with temperatures reaching the upper 80s across the
lowlands by the afternoon. A cluster of severe thunderstorms may
develop across the midwest late Thursday ahead of another low
pressure system, and this could potentially track east toward the
middle Ohio Valley Thursday night. However, confidence is low due to
varying model solutions, but it remains possible that portions of
the area could see a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
approaching from the west Thursday evening or Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1212 PM Monday...

An active pattern looks to continue from the end of the work week
and into the weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances as
multiple waves of low pressure cross from the west. Models become
more split by Sunday, with some showing a mainly dry day with high
pressure, and others showing continued shower and thunderstorm
chances with mid-level vorticity overhead. We will keep slight
chances of PoPs in the forecast for now until models are in better
agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 805 PM Monday...

A low pressure system slowly approaching from the southwest will
continue to bring showers at times through Tuesday, most
persistent at CKB and EKN, where MVFR conditions in showers will
be most persistent, but still not constant.

A heavier shower could bring brief IFR visibility, particularly
at BKW. Low MVFR ceiling at BKW which broke up earlier this
evening is forecast to reform tonight, and again persist into at
least Thursday afternoon.

Not yet included in the code for any of the sites, a
thunderstorm could occur Tuesday afternoon, directly under which
ceiling and visibility could drop to IFR.

Surface flow will generally continue to be light northeast to
southeast, although southeast flow at BKW could still be gusty
at times tonight. Moderate south to southwest flow aloft
tonight will become light to moderate south to southwest
Tuesday morning, and then light south to southwest Tuesday
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of flight category changes in
showers could vary. Gusty winds at BKW could vary. MVFR
ceilings may not reform or be as persistent as forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
In an active week, IFR conditions are possible under convection
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, as well as Thursday night
through Friday night, and then again Saturday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM/JZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM