594
FXUS61 KRLX 280410
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1210 AM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front today brings some showers and a significant
warming trend. Thunderstorms are expected next Sunday into
Monday, and a few could be strong.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1210 AM Friday...

A warm front will push northward across the area today. This
will provide a chance for some rain/showers, with the better
chances across central Ohio and northern West Virginia. A
southerly wind flow can be expected south of the warm front,
causing a significant increase in temperatures by this afternoon
over southern West Virginia, northeast Kentucky, and extreme
southern Ohio. Some lowland locations may reach 80 degrees.

The front will be north of the area by Friday night. With
southerly winds, overnight temperatures will be rather mild,
well above normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Thursday...

Active weather in the short term period. Warm frontal boundary north
of our area at the start of the period. Mainly dry conditions
expected Friday night into the first part of Saturday. However,
multiple shortwaves crossing the area, one Saturday
afternoon/evening, followed by a potential additional wave Sunday
out ahead of the main low/front, will help to generate mainly
showers Saturday, possibly a thunderstorm depending on if enough
instability/lift can occur, with thunderstorms more likely on
Sunday. Cold front associated with low to the west moves into the
region on Monday. Area is still outlooked for severe across western
zones in the Sunday evening through Monday morning time frame, but
if much of the convection occurs at night, waning instability may
limit the severe threat for much of the western zones during this
time period, with the potential for a threat in the afternoon hours
across eastern zones as the front progresses through the area. There
will however continue to be a threat for severe owing to the
strengthening shear/winds aloft even across the western zones/Sunday
night despite waning instability. In addition its important to note
there is also uncertainty regarding any severe Monday across the
east as models continue to differ with timing of system/front. Temps
during the period look to remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 232 PM Thursday...

Cold front should move east of the area by afternoon Monday, with
decreasing threat for convective activity, although showers will
linger behind the front through Monday night/early Tuesday. It will
be cooler on Tuesday behind the front, but overall drier as high
pressure builds in from the north. Temperatures will gradually
increase towards the middle of the week out ahead of the next
system, which looks to spread showers and storms back into the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1210 AM Friday...

A warm front will push northward across the area today. Some
restrictions in showers are possible, mainly across Ohio and
northern West Virginia. Outside of these restrictions, expect
VFR conditions through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions in
showers could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 03/28/25
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night through Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY