131
FXUS61 KRLX 210804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
304 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level system brings wintry precipitation, with
accumulating snow in the mountains from today through Saturday.
Dry Sunday. Next system brings rain to start the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...

Key Points:
* Snow expected for the mountains.
* Rain transitions to snow in the lowlands late today into tonight.
* Highest confidence in accumulating snow exists along the mountains.
* Greatest snow amounts will be in the northeast WV mountains.

An upper level low, which is currently centered over the Great
Lakes, will lumber southeast into the Mid Atlantic states today and
tonight. While light precipitation has already been traversing
the northern part of the CWA this morning, precipitation is
projected to expand in coverage during the day as the system
transports moisture into the area. Shortwaves spiraling around
the upper low should also instigate more robust activity at
times through tonight.

Cold air advection will keep temperatures below normal throughout
the day, with highs topping out in the mid 30s to low 40s in the
lowlands and mid 20s to 30s in the mountains. Temperatures then dive
into the 20s to low 30s for tonight.

In the lowlands, precipitation starts out as rain or a rain/snow mix
before transitioning to all snow late today into tonight. Snow
accumulations that occur in this area tonight should be fairly light.
Higher confidence in accumulating snow exists for the mountains,
where colder temperatures support snow as the dominant precipitation
type through the majority of the near term period. Between today and
tonight, 2 to 5 inches of snow will be possible at elevations over
1500 feet, while greater amounts (6 to 8 inches) should primarily be
confined to elevations of 3000 feet or higher. Additional snow
accumulations are expected in the mountains from Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

Large scale forcing may still affecting the northeast mountains as
an upper low/trough begins to exit east of the area Friday morning.
Sub-freezing H850 temperatures around minus 5C, slightly warm up to
0C under strong (40 knots) northwest flow by Friday afternoon.
Therefore, lake-enhanced snow showers will continue across our area
Friday morning through Saturday evening. The heavier snows are
expected across the northeast mountains where strong upslope effects
add to the equation producing significant snow accumulations, and
temperatures remain below freezing for the entire event. Expect the
heaviest upslope snow accumulations from Friday morning into
Saturday morning, gradually tapering off by Saturday evening.
Additional 8 to 12 inches of snow will be possible above elevations
3,000 feet and higher.

Across the lowlands, temperatures will warm into the mid 40s,
transitioning snow into all rain by Friday afternoon. Therefore, 1
inch of snow or less can be expected mainly across northern WV
ending early Saturday morning.

Model consensus suggests low to mid level flow becomes more
westerly, cutting off the lake-moisture connection by Saturday
evening. Therefore, winter headlines will continue into Saturday
evening with the mention of strong gusty winds during the
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

A brief surface high pressure develops by Sunday providing drier
weather conditions into early Monday. Becoming warmer Sunday and
Monday. However, another an upper level shortwave may bringing rain
showers and colder temperatures back to the area by the beginning of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM Thursday...

Fog has formed in a few of the valleys, but extent should
remain limited by light to moderate winds and incoming clouds.
Ceilings will lower toward MVFR as light showers spread into
the area during the morning, then an MVFR to IFR cloud deck
persists - along with precipitation - through the end of the
TAF period. Precipitation is mainly expected to fall as snow in
the mountains, while a mix of rain and snow will occur in the
lowlands. Winds also become gusty during the day, with 15-20 kt
gusts anticipated for the lowlands, while 20 to 35 kt gusts will
be possible in the mountains. Both snow showers and blowing
snow are likely to lead to periods of IFR visibilities today and
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated
sub-VFR restrictions could vary.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 11/21/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR or worse conditions possible, mainly for the mountains, in
periods of snow through Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for WVZ033-034-039-040-515>517-519-521-524.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for WVZ518-520-522-523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB