Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 231902
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE INFORMATION SHOWS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
BLANKET MUCH OF THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED.

CURRENTLY THINKING IS THAT THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND
BREAK-UP IN MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...
FEEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE EXCEPTION
SHOULD BE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE
THE MODELS INDICATE EASTERLY SLOW...HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
SHOULD KEEP CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...EXPECT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA...
WITH THE DRIEST AIR ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HAVE CONTINUED PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING OF HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
EXTENDING INTO THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST MET/MARV GUIDANCE...FEEL PREVIOUS TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK GOOD. ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS TO
TWEAK HIGHS A LITTLE ON SUNDAY TO REFLECT LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BASKING THE IN THE RIDGE IN THE SHORT TERM. IT MAY GET BEATEN DOWN
MIDWEEK A BIT WHICH MAY ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO TRY TO CROSS. HAVE
SOME CHANCE POPS IN BEFORE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N. OPPRESSIVE HEAT
STAYS WELL W OF REGION BUT MUGGIES REMAIN...ESPECIALLY W ZONES.
TEMPERED TEMPS A BIT BASED ON WET GROUNDS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
RELIEF IN THE N MTNS WHERE LOWER DEWPOINTS TRY TO SNEAK IN FROM
NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE HANGS ON MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...PERHAPS SHOWING SIGNS OF
BREAKING BY SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO ENCROACH NW
ZONES. THUS HAVE SOME POPS IN FOR THERE ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE
SEASONABLE TEMPS...PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AT 18Z. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS BY 21Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 03Z.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW...CONTINUE TO BE A BIT LEARY ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WITH
WET GROUND...THINKING WE NEED MORE TIME TO DRY OUT...SO HAVE FOG
FORMING WITH VSBY BLO 3 MILES IN WV VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VSBYS BLO 5 MILES IN MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z.

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXPECTIONS WILL BE
IN THE SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AFT 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOW QUICKLY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT...THE LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/30
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH







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