Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 022034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
A GOOD SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL INITIALLY LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...THEN RISE LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICK IN AHEAD OF THE RAIN. WENT WITH A MODEL
COMPROMISE ON TEMPERATURES. THUS...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WARM UP...TO BRING SOME
FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S. THE
RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH. THE RAIN WILL
TEMPORARILY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS STILL RATHER MEAGER...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN
AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV








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