Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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281
FXUS61 KRLX 240014
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
814 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits area overnight. Much cooler weather by
midweek. Another cold front next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 755 PM Monday...

Vigorous short wave/cold front with heavy rain will lift
quickly out of the northern mountains of West Virginia by 10 PM.
Behind this will be large cyclonic flow around a highly
amplified upper trough over the eastern third of the nation.
This will provide widely scattered light showers into Tuesday
with cooler temperatures.


As of 1150 AM Monday...

No significant changes were necessary to the previous forecast.
Cold frontal boundary at 1545Z across central KY, and pushing
eastward, with area of heavier rain evident on radar. Front will
push east across the CWA this afternoon and evening, exiting to
the CWA later tonight. Expect an uptick in precipitation this
afternoon and evening as it does so, along with continued gusty
winds.

Later tonight, general drying trend as front exits to the east
of the area. Will still be some lingering showers, and plenty of
cloud cover in the overnight hours

A chance for showers, and cooler weather is expected on Tuesday,
as an upper low/trough pushes into the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Still a few showers possible late Tuesday night and on
Wednesday, particularly across the north, as an upper trough
develops and crosses the region. This will usher in cooler air,
with the possibility of a few flakes across the higher terrain,
although not a significant threat of snow, due to overall lack
of moisture/good crystal growth. Temperatures Thursday morning
will easily dip into the mid 30s for much of the lowlands,
possibly warranting the need for frost advisories. Will keep a
mention in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM Monday...

High pressure with dry conditions Thursday and Friday. Another
cold front will move into the region over the weekend,
providing yet another chance for rain showers. Behind the front,
much cooler air, with the possibility of rain and snow showers
across the higher terrain, and perhaps, a few flakes across some
lowland locations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z Tuesday thru 00Z Wednesday...
As of 800 PM Monday...

Strong upper disturbance and cold front will exit the northern
mountains of WV by 10 pm. Behind the front, large cyclonic flow
around upper trough over the eastern third of the nation will
bring mainly MVFR ceilings, except higher mountain IFR ceilings,
along with widely scattered light showers thru Tuesday. Winds
southwest 10 to 15 KTS but up to 25 KTS mountain ridgetops.

After 14Z, improving to VFR ceilings from west to east, but
possibly lower in a passing shower. Southwest winds 10 to 20
KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR may be more widespread in the
mountains.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 10/24/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings if
frost does not occur.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV



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