Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191405
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1005 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front today brings a shower or storm to northern areas.
High pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Strong cold front mid
week. Cooler and drier for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 AM Saturday...

Forecast remains mostly on-track and just made some minor
changes to sky cover based on current METSAT and Obs. Becoming a
little concerned for the risk of severe weather across our
Northern Forecast Zones this afternoon. Upper trough swings
through this afternoon through early this evening, but plenty of
dry air in the mid-levels will likely hinder the development of
convection. With strong diurnal heating, decent remaining low
level moisture and cool temps aloft causing mid-level lapse
rates around 7C/Km, we may be able to produce a few updrafts
that could punch through the capping layer. Any development will
likely be on the Northern Fringe of our CWA and storms could end
up staying well off to our north in PA, but will have to
continue to monitor and see where convection kicks off this
afternoon out ahead the approaching upper trough.

As of 625 AM saturday...

Updated to increase cirrus canopy this morning per
satellite/obs.

As of 300 AM Saturday...

Models have a short wave and weakening cold front crossing the area
later today. Models indicate only a modest return flow of moisture
ahead of this front, and more importantly weakening support aloft.
The forecast soundings are rather unimpressive for instability, but
cannot rule out a summer sun to help destabilize things a bit this
afternoon. Will paint a chance of showers and possibly a storm
across the north later today with this feature, as this will be the
area of best support and moisture pooling. Elsewhere, will keep rain
free.
Any convection will rapidly decrease this evening with the loss
of heating and as high pressure builds in tonight. Temperatures
will be slightly above normal today, but not that humid.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Return flow sets up to bring the high dewpoints, which really
had not fallen off much with the last cold front on Friday, to
more tropical type levels again, and temperatures back towards
90F in the lowlands through Tuesday. Some isolated POPs exist
during the short term in the mountains with generally zonal
flow aloft. This will be the last of the heat in the foreseeable
future with the next cold front pushing into the forecast area
Tuesday night.

Expecting a cumulus field to develop in the daytime heating on
Monday for the eclipse. Should be more sun than clouds, but
cannot foresee a completely clear sky with this issuance. Cloud
coverage could be a bit more over the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 235 AM Saturday...

Deep open wave pushes through the Great Lakes with an airmass
changing cold front from Wednesday through the end of the week.
Dewpoints should be back into the 50s in the Canadian airmass
and lowlands largely in the mid to upper 70s for the lowlands
Thursday and Friday. Overall trough pattern looks to persist
over the eastern CONUS going beyond day 7.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z Saturday thru 12Z Sunday...
As of 625 AM Saturday...

After isolated IFR river valley fog early, a moisture lacking
cold front will weaken as it crosses the area today, possibly
generating a few showers or a storm in the north.

Today...
VFR. Cirrus overspreading most of the area this morning. During
the afternoon, ceilings AOA 6000 feet across the north half of
the area with a shower or storm possible. Elsewhere, SCT-BKN
mid-high clouds AOA 10000 feet AGL. Light south wind becoming
west by 15Z at 5 to 10 KTS.

Tonight...
Clouds exit northeastern WV by 03Z as high pressure builds in.
Under mostly clear skies and near calm winds, look for
widespread IFR river valley fog after 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, except medium with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, density, and location of fog
tonight could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
Dense river valley fog possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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