Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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679
FXUS61 KRLX 191956
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
256 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm through the work week with another weak system
late Tuesday into Wednesday. A more organized system drifts
this way for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION, BUT A LAYER
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. BIG
QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT, WITH MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ALSO
VARYING. AM LEANING TOWARD THE STRATUS DECK ERODING ON THE
EDGES, BUT REMAINING IN PLACE AND REBUILDING TONIGHT. THIS ALSO
EFFECTS LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FOG FORMATION. IF CLOUDS DO
ERODE, EXPECT LOWER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD FOG. IN EITHER
CASE, FOG OR STRATUS WILL BURN OFF ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH CIRRUS
WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...

Anomalously warm pattern continues next week. A weak system
looks to cross Tuesday night with scattered showers. Improving
conditions on Wednesday. No cold air behind this system, so
expect the very warm air to hold.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

The very warm pattern to end the work week. showers and perhaps
a few storms may fire along a developing warm front Thursday. Temps
may soar well into the 70s on Friday in the warm sector, ahead
of a potent cold front set to cross Friday night. I have
continued the idea of thunder with the front. A significant
cool down is expected over the weekend with high pressure
building overhead, though still running above normal in the
temperature department.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1224 PM SUNDAY...

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION, BUT A LAYER OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION, CREATING A
STRATUS DECK. BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS CLOUD DECK CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT, WITH MOS GUIDANCE
PRODUCTS ALSO VARYING. AM LEANING TOWARD THE STRATUS DECK ERODING ON
THE EDGES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT REMAINING IN PLACE AND REBUILDING
TONIGHT. THIS ALSO EFFECTS FOG FORMATION. IF CLOUDS DO ERODE, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. IN EITHER CASE, FOG OR STRATUS WILL BURN OFF
ON MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS TONIGHT COULD BE EITHER STRATUS OR
DENSE FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ



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