Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 222328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
728 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. DRY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY/MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
715PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FOR
THE REGION. EVEN SO...WITH UPSLOPE WIND FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING...SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
OVERNIGHT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. EXPECT SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVEN MORE ON THURSDAY. IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE AS IT TENDS TO RADIATE TOO MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BACKED OFF MOST OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DO
MUCH OF ANYTHING...SO WILL LEAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OFF TO THE WEST WILL SLOWLY
DECAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRUDGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WE
WILL GET CLIPPED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS COLD FRONT AND
AGAIN...WILL KEEP THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY DRY. AFFECTS...IN THIS
CASE...WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

IN THE END...DESPITE TWO DIFFERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS...VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAY HAVE SOME HOLLOWS GETTING INTO THE FROST
GAME...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE STICKING POINT HERE. SAME APPLIES TO SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...SHOULD STILL HAVE A NICE DEW
POINT GRADIENT SATURDAY EVENING.  WILL LEAVE A TOKEN 10 PERCENT POP
SATURDAY EVENING.

FIGURING NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TO THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  WIND SHOULD
STILL BE STIRRING MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT...SO DIFFICULT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON GOOD
NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CLOUD DECK REMAINS IN PLACE...AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT MOST TAF LOCATIONS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. SHOULD START TO
SEE CLOUDS BREAK UP FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TOUGH FORECAST ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AT
LOCATIONS LIKE PKB AND HTS...AND ESPECIALLY WHAT IMPACT THAT WOULD
HAVE ON POTENTIAL FOG FORMATION. LOOKS LIKE HTS COULD SCATTER OUT
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...AND HINTED AT SOME FOG THERE. COULD SEE IT
GOING EITHER WAY...AND IF FOG FORMS COULD BE DENSER THAN FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE HAVE CLOUDS REMAINING INTO TOMORROW...THEN GRADUALLY
LIFTING INTO A CU DECK AND SCATTERING OUT THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF STRATUS RAISING COULD VARY. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION AT HTS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.