Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 312317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT POTENTIAL RIVER
VALLEY FOG AT EKN AND CRW. EKN SHOULD GET SOME DENSE FOG...WHILE
CRW WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR. DO HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SCATTERED MID DECK AND
SOME WINDS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE W AND NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...COULD GET A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ



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