Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 050215
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1015 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...COLD FRONT NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AS OF
02Z...GRADUALLY MOVING EAST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO UPDATED HOURLY TREND INTO TONIGHT BUT LOWS
STILL LOOK PRETTY GOOD. HRRR CONTINUES TO PROVIDE DECENT POP
GUIDANCE. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE TRI-
STATE OVERNIGHT...BUT IN REALITY SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF DRY
BEFORE THE WRAP-AROUND ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER LOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON THE SAME PAGE NOW
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT...SLOWLY
SWEEPING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL LATER TONIGHT ON THE LEE SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE UPPER
LOW SLOWLY TURNS SEWD THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA
THURSDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO POP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL WITH THE
ANOMALOUSLY LOW FREEZING LEVEL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL HAIL AGAIN
POSSIBLE. CAT POPS WITH THIS PRECIP BAND. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS
COMING MORE IN LINE...SPECIFIC TIMING WILL STILL BE WITH THE SLOWER
END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. USED THE NAM TO TRY TO INCORPORATE SOME
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION DETAILS. BUT ONCE WE LOSE THE HEATING...THE
LACK OF SYNOPTIC INSTABILITY HAS THUNDER POTENTIAL RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST.

THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW SUGGESTS A DRY SLOT WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE PRECIP WITH THE HANGING FRONT AND
WRAPAROUND SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE UPPER LOW INCREASING OVER THAT
AREA. SO...WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE IN THE WEST FOR MUCH OF
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP CAT POPS IN THE EAST. FOR THURSDAY...THE MODELS
GENERALLY AGREE MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WORKING
WESTWARD IN THE WRAPAROUND FLOW OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT WITH
SOUTHEAST OHIO TRENDING TO IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LOW DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPS ARE VERY MARGINAL FOR
ANY SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL OMIT SNOW THERE. WHILE PW`S ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE...THE WEAK FLOW AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF SHOWERS AROUND
THE UPPER LOW LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVE SOME CONCERN FOR WATER
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE A MENTION FOR THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT UNTIL THE SPECIFIC SETUP OF PRECIP BANDS BECOMES CLEARER.

TEMPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM TO END THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS
WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN
WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN
THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY MESSY AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD... WITH COLD FRONT
CROSSING THIS EVENING AND THEN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MEANDERING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WILL LIKELY NEVER FULLY CLEAR THE
COLD FRONTAL SHOWERS BEFORE WRAPAROUND SHOWERS BEGIN...SO HAVE
PRECIP THROUGH...HOWEVER VISIBILITIES ARE NOT ALL THAT LOW. COULD
GET A BRIEF DROP INTO LOWER MVFR OR EVEN IFR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THAT TO BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCE OF SOME LOWER
VISIBILITIES TOMORROW. DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER CONSIDERABLY
TONIGHT...WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY MORNING. FAIRLY
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT BACK TO MVFR. USED A
BLEND OF LAMP GUIDANCE AND NAM SOUNDINGS TO DRAW CLOUD HEIGHTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND IFR CONDITIONS MAY
VARY.

THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON
THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALSO VARY AS MODELS STILL DIFFER.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTAIN SMALL HAIL OR
GRAUPEL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 05/05/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ



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