Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 241448
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
DURING THE NEAR TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME
AFTERNOON CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW
FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND
MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT
OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE
TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED
ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT
AND WED MORNING.

WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT
FORMS IN THE  AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT
WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS
AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
15Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV/SL


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