Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 252317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
SUNDAY. WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTS CROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...REDUCED CLOUDS A BIT...ALTHOUGH WITH FRONT STILL
WEST...CONTINUED LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAST MOVING COLD FRONT SCOOTS ACROSS INTO
THIS EVENING. KEPT SCHC POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT OTHERWISE A
DRY FROPA. SOME POST FRONTAL LOW STRATUS MAY TRY TO LINGER ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND S COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT
DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT FOR MOST RESULTING IN CLEARING THIS EVENING.

A FANTASTIC SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST COMES AT THE FAR END AND HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. KEEP LIKELIES IN PERRY COUNTY...BUT TRIM THE
EXTENT OF ANY POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE NAM HAS SLOWED IT DOWN A
TOUCH AND DO NOT TRUST THE FASTER GFS IN THESE SITUATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A DR WARM FRONT COMES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING LOWLAND
TEMPERATURE READINGS TOWARDS THE 80 DEGREE MARK. NORTHERN ZONES
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE TROUBLE KEEPING THAT PACE...SUCH AS
AT CKB...SO EXPECT A BIT OF A GRADIENT IN THE MAX TEMPERATURES EAST
OF I-79. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 17C THAT DAY.

ON TUESDAY...TAKE THE MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.
OVERALL...EXPECT MONDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS WEST OF
I-79 AND TUESDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS EAST OF I-79.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS THRU...EACH FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES UNDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY
FRIDAY. PRECIP WISE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING...MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS WILL BE LIMITED
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LIGHT QPF. FIRST FRONT THIS PERIOD USES THE
SLOWER MODELS OVER THE FASTER GFS AND WILL COME ACROSS EARLY
WEDNESDAY...PRECEDED BY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL COME ACROSS FRIDAY WITH EVEN LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SO ANY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COOLER THIS PERIOD. WE WILL
START WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONLY NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL START IN THE LOWER 50S TUESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 30S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. COULD GET A BRIEF GUST OF 20KTS AS THE FRONT PASSES. SATELLITE
SHOWS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.
HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS TO LINGER IN THE EASTERN
LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL HAVE
SOME FLOW TO KEEP THINGS STIRRED UP...AND LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CIG CHANGES MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ








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