Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 271423
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1023 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses this morning. High pressure crosses
tonight. Warmer, more humid and unsettled latter half of the
week. Cold front crosses by Sunday but returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Tuesday...

10 AM Tuesday...
Per observations and hi res model trends, increased winds for
today, rather brisk, but dropping off rapidly with loss of
heating later in the afternoon. Otherwise no changes.

Forecast on track with showers ahead of cold front becoming
more widely scattered.

As of 420 AM Tuesday...

A cold front crossing the Ohio River early this morning is
likely to become better defined in the surface wind field on
mixing after sunrise, but then may become more difficult to find
as it jumps the mountains late this morning. Models insist
showers break up ahead of the front this morning, as thin mid
level CAPE gives way to mid level drying. The chance for midday
or early afternoon thunder in the mountains is very small
though not quite zero.

High pressure builds in for a clear, calm, cool night tonight.

Short term consensus blend close to previous and MAV for highs
today, the MAV was a bit high. MAV/MET/previous/short term
consensus blend used for lows this upcoming radiative cooling
night, at or a little below previous. GFS based MOS has had 45
at EKN for days, as has the forecast.

Forecast lows tonight are close to records in some cases:

LocationForecast low tonightRecordYear

CRW Charleston         52                    50         1988+prev yrs
HTS Huntington         50                    47         1915
PKB Parkerburg         50                    48         1988
EKN Elkins             45                    39         1988
BKW Beckley            48                    44         1970
CKB Clarksburg         49        record database is being developed

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM Tuesday...

Sfc High pressure prevails across southeast OH and WV through
Thursday.

A low pressure system will move east over the Great Lakes region
Thursday night. Winds become southwest pumping warm air and moisture
to the area as a cold front approaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 420 AM Monday...

A cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system
will slowly progress east and south to approach southeast OH by
Sunday morning. Meanwhile, warmer temperatures, abundant moisture
and instability could produce some showers or storms activity
Friday, Saturday and Saturday night.

The front becomes stationary west to east across our area Monday and
Tuesday to continue with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1015 AM Tuesday...

Scattered cu deck today, 5-6 kft AGL. Northwest winds generally 5
to 12 KTS this afternoon.

Clear, calm, cool night tonight as high pressure crosses, with
river vally fog forming that can go IFR, especially at EKN and
CRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, but medium tonight for fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley IFR fog later tonight may be
more widespread than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM/JMV



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