Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 020046
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
846 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak cold front brings isolated showers or storms this afternoon.
Front sags just south on Saturday. Front returns north Sunday
night...with low pressure waves Independence day into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
845 pm update...Some very isolated showers out there this evening
as weak front pushes through the region. Have updated to reflect
current radar and trends.

445 pm update...No major changes needed at this time to the
forecast. Did lower PoP overnight as weak front coming through the
region may kick off a few isolated showers until we lose daytime
heating...then shower activity will cease after sunset.

Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front exits east of the eastern mountains this
evening. Relatively drier air filters in but still expect plenty
of cloudiness. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

Saturday turns dry with temperatures slightly below normal.

Used the super blend guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday should be mostly dry...and cooler...with high pressure in
control...and frontal boundary to the south of the cwa. Frontal
boundary will gradually lift north across the region Sunday night
into Monday...with moisture...and cloud cover increasing as it
does so. Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the
evening...with heavy downpours possible with any storms that
develop. Greater threat for heavier precipitation and potential
water issues int he long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Frontal boundary will gradually stall out across the area on
Monday...with waves of low pressure moving east along the frontal
boundary...enhancing precipitation at times. Still a bit of
uncertainty between the models between where the heaviest axis of
rain will set up...but at this point...general consensus is for
the frontal boundary to stall out across the central/north central
part of the cwa on Monday...with the areas of heaviest
precipitation expected across parts of southeast Ohio...and north
central West Virginia. PW values progged to rise to over 2 inches
again on Monday...and there is the potential for flash flooding
issues once again.

Showers and thunderstorms...with heavy downpours will continue
into Monday night and Tuesday...as additional waves move across
the area.

Somewhat drier weather takes hold mid week...but with a warm...and
humid air mass expected to be in place...will still see occasional
showers and thunderstorms...with the possibility for heavy
downpours continuing...particularly during peak heating hours.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few very isolated showers are passing through the region this
evening but at this time I do not think any of the terminals will
be affected. VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period.
However...some uncertainty whether or not we will see fog develop
in the valley locations. For now I have added MVFR visibilities at
CRW and HTS with IFR conditions at PKB and EKN due to fog...also
with the light northerly flow tonight BKW may also see some IFR
conditions with fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog may be thicker in some locations and also
timing of fog development is uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 07/02/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL/99
AVIATION...MPK


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