Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 290134
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
934 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure exits tonight. High pressure passes Wednesday. A
warm front pushes in Thursday, ahead of a system that crosses
Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 920 PM Tuesday...
Widely scattered light showers with cold front entering
mountains at 9 PM, will exit the mountains just after midnight. Large
cold advection stratus shield over the Ohio valley will be in
control overnight into Wednesday morning. Little change to
existing forecast.

As of 205 PM Tuesday...

Cold front will be pushing across the area this afternoon with
isolated to scattered showers associated with it. Behind the
front there is an extensive stratus field that will likely
persist into tomorrow morning at the least. This will keep
overnight lows generally in the 40s across the region.

Conditions will start to improve tomorrow as ridging builds in
from the west. Skies will clear from west to east through the
day. Depending on how fast we clear out will determine how warm
we will get. For now, have decided to go slightly above MAV/MET
guidance for highs, but if clouds linger longer this could be
bust.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 PM Tuesday...

Upper level ridge crosses Wednesday night and Thursday. Mid and
high warm advection cloud spills over the ridge Wednesday night,
emanating from the next southern stream upper level low
approaching from the west. That system may bring rain Thursday,
but the bulk of the rain with this system is more likely
overnight Thursday night and Friday.

As a warm front pushes northward through the area on Thursday,
moisture increases and, coupled with the heating of the day and
moderate to strong mid level flow, could lead to late day
thunderstorms across southwest portions of the forecast area.
This activity should then wane with the loss of heating Thursday
night. Thunder is again possible Friday afternoon over the
lowlands, but with a CAD wedge holding up the warm front,
surface based instability is not likely to be realized farther
east.

The upper low pushes east Friday night, leaving just upslope
rain showers in and near the mountains, and lots of clouds area
wide, by Saturday morning.

Central guidance looked good for temperatures in this continued
above normal spring pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 PM Tuesday...

Exiting low pressure brings clouds, and upslope rain showers in
and near the mountains, on Saturday. Loss of heating and high
pressure building in dries the weather out quickly Saturday
night, and the dry weather continues on Sunday. The next in the
parade of southern stream bowling balls crosses early next week.

Central guidance looked good for temperatures in this continued
above normal spring pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z Wednesday thru 00Z Thursday...
As of 910 PM Tuesday...

Cold front, currently along an EKN-BKW-LOZ line, will lastly
exit the southern mountains by 05Z. Weakening widely scattered
light rain showers with the front will end with passage of the
front. Expansive MVFR ceilings behind the front will then lower
to IFR ceilings area wide 04Z to 07Z, first in the higher
elevations; but VSBY should generally remain high end MVFR or
better at the major TAF sites, except at BKW with IFR VSBY
after 07Z. Light west wind ahead of front becoming light
northwest behind the front.

Conditions will improve after sunrise tomorrow as high pressure
pushes in, first in the west and north. By 19Z look for clearing
in the north, and ceilings VFR in the south. Expect mostly clear
skies by 00Z Thursday area wide. Winds will be north 5 to 10
KTS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset of IFR ceilings tonight and
improvement Wednesday morning may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 03/29/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV


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