Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 020746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
346 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOUTHEAST
FLOW MAY INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS EAST OVER
NORTHERN WV TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMATION DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET.

SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS COULD MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE OUTSIDE SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH AN WESTERLY COMPONENT.

FOR TONIGHT...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TODAY. GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES
LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO THE MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT CLOSER
TO THE SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IS RELUCTANT TO CHANGE. MOST OF THE
FORCING REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A VORT MAX MEANDERS AROUND
LIKE A LOST DOG...BUT NEVER COMES HOME TO WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL
LEAVE US IN A GENERAL VOID WHERE DIURNALLY FORCED STORMS OCCUR IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT ARE WIDELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z GFS SOLUTION WAS FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH A SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRYING TO DENT THE RIDGE BY
DAY 7/TUESDAY. AT THIS DISTANCE IN TIME...WILL NOT JUMP ON THE
FASTER SOLUTION BUT STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SE OHIO AND
NORTHERN WV TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TRIED TO HOLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE DOWN A BIT FOR DAY 4/SATURDAY
IN THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY WEATHER. UPPER
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE AREA SPREADING CLEAR SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING WILL CREATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. TOGETHER WITH WARM RIVER
WATERS...DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HTS ALREADY
EXPERIENCING MVFR VISIBILITIES. EXPECT MOST SITES TO DETERIORATE
FROM MVFR TO IFR/LIFR DURING THE 09-12Z PERIOD. ANY FOG WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12-13Z FOR WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY.

DIURNAL HEATING...WITH A LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROMOTE THE FORMATIONS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ALONG THE
STRONGER STORMS. DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IF RAINFALL WILL HIT AN
AIRPORT...SO DID NOT INCLUDE PCPN ON TAFS.

EXPECT IFR RIVER VALLEY DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 09/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...FB/KTB
AVIATION...ARJ



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