Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 010037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
835 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
STRONGER COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. COOLER SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
RH VALUES HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO LET THE RED FLAG
WARNING EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL TREND WAS TO TREND AWAY FROM THE 12Z NAM AND GO SLOWER
INCREASING POPS IN OUR EASTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS AGREES MORE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.

A PSEUDO WARM FRONT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTH THROUGH CWA THURSDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS...AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE 06Z TO
12Z THURSDAY.  DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WIND ON
THURSDAY...THE HIGHER DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP US FROM RED FLAG
CRITERIA.

NOT IMPRESSED WITH INSTABILITY ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT WAS CONCERNED ABOUT TRAINING/REPETITIVE
ROUNDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING...DESPITE THE 35
KNOT STEERING FLOW.  PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKS AROUND 1.3 INCHES.
THINKING ABOUT OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN 6 TO 12 HOURS WOULD
GET OUR ATTENTION. OVERALL THOUGH...IT IS TOO EARLY/PREMATURE TO
INTRODUCE ANY FLOOD HAZARD IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL.

DID INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
SLOWER...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED WAVE ACTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EASTER WEEKEND...SHAPING UP TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH COOL TEMPS ON
SATURDAY AND REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING WARM BUT
UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 04/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...SL










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