Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 071743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN VICINITY OF STORMS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT FORM LATE TONIGHT AS
FORECAST.

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...SL


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