Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 072354
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
654 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure persists tonight. A cold front crosses early
Thursday morning, followed by much colder weather through
Saturday. Next system crosses Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 655 PM Wednesday...

No major changes except an increase in the sky cover to the
northwestern zones and some minor adjustments to the overnight
lows.

As of 219 PM Wednesday...

A weaK high pressure will continue to provide dry and clear
conditions tonight. Satellite images show widespread clearing over
the region, and mid to upper clouds far away upstream. These
clouds could reach southeast OH by Thursday morning.

Clear skies, decoupled atmosphere and boundary layer winds at 5 to
10 knots, expect radiational cooling dropping temperatures into
the low 30s. This could produce frost instead of fog.

Low level ceilings could develop during the predawn hours early
Thursday morning. These clouds should dissipate by mid morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM Wednesday...

Good CAA commences Thursday night with H85 temps lowering into
the -12 to -14C range. This combined with orographic contributions
should be able to squeeze out some mountain snow showers and
flurries elsewhere despite rather meager moisture depth. This
should continue for Friday as well though any lakes contribution
should stay north of the area. Only expecting some minor
accumulations in the mountains and perhaps a dusting here or there
in the lowlands. Still having to increase cloud cover from what
the Blender provided as well as lowering highs a smidgen. A gusty
WNW wind will bring some low wind chills especially in the
mountains. Snow showers and flurries will wane Friday night but
clouds should linger. Clouds will gradually erode from SW to NE
Saturday due to low level WAA. It will still remain chilly with
little if any mixing from aloft to significantly boost temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 PM Wednesday...

There exists considerable spread regarding how amplified the
Sunday/Monday s/w trof is as it ejects out of the Plains. The
Euro is much more amplified with a deepening surface low track
into the upper Midwest versus GFS. Stuck close to the Forecast
Builder which is a middle road solution. With the lingering cold
air, suspect the very front end of this system will have a short
lived wintry aspect. But all of these fine details will ultimately
depend on track and amplitude. In the wake of this system, a broad
upper trof will settle in across the easter half of the nature
with subsequent cold shots slated just beyond the range of the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 655 PM Wednesday...

Will expect an increase in cloud cover tonight with ceilings
lowering, but remaining in the VFR category. Cold front arrives
after 12Z Thursday, bringing an increase in winds that will gust
20-25kts upon frontal passage. Ceilings will break briefly during
the afternoon, and stratus will settle back in behind the front,
mostly in terms of a scattered deck prior to 00Z Friday

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR in possible snow showers Thursday through Thursday night in
the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26


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