Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 231439
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
939 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system passes overhead and to the east tonight.
Progressively colder mid and late week with passage of a cold
front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM Monday...
Updated QPF and PoP timing to better reflect latest model run
and radar assimilation. This resulted in relatively minor
changes in overall forecast. Will continue to watch southern
areas of WV as 3 to 6 hour QPE amounts are broaching the one
inch mark. Another round of precip is upstream which may cause
local flooding issues.

As of 555 AM Monday...

No changes to the forecast. Current rainfall amounts generally
less than a quarter inch, although McDowell is pushing one half
inch in some spots. Rain coverage has increased over the last
couple hours, so the evolution of the POPs grids are in good
shape.

As of 235 AM Monday...

No major changes to the evolution and track of the stacked upper
level and surface low, but challenges remain with the QPF. The
RAP and especially the HRRR are still on the aggressive side,
giving more than an inch and a half in places, but will keep it
on the lower end of the models with about an inch to an inch and
a quarter through today. Rain shadow in place west of the
mountains currently due to the easterly component to the low
level flow, but eventual saturation will occur.

As the lows pass to the east, low level flow will back to the
northwest, transitioning the event to more of a northwest flow
scenario complete with a low level thermal trough. Cold air
advection is not much of a driver here, but dynamic cooling from
the proximity of the upper low brings highest ridge temperatures
below freezing, and subject to a change over to snow later this
evening and tonight. Accumulations will be 1 to 3 inches, but
look like they will be primarily above 3500ft. Greenbrier and
Tygart River valleys will likely remain as rain, or a rain snow
mix.

Still no headlines for water issues, but isolated pockets of
minor problems may occur due to persistence of rain and multi
basin coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Tuesday will see the shower activity wind down fairly quickly
from west to east as the strong low pressure system moves away.
Dynamic cooling will also wane as the system moves away, so
that lingering high elevation snow showers in the northern
mountains will change to rain showers before ending. Little
additional snow accumulation expected there. High pressure will
return Tuesday night with dry weather and near seasonable low
temperatures. The pattern will change beginning Wednesday as
northwesterly flow aloft drives a cold front southeastward into
our area later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A good warmup
again into the 60s Wednesday ahead of this cold front. Scattered
rain showers will spread southeast across most of the area
Wednesday night behind the cold front, with rain showers
changing to snow showers in the northern mountains, but with
little accumulation.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM Monday...

For this period, established northwest flow aloft will bring a
series of upper disturbances and cold fronts, with progressively
colder air invading the area. These will bring scattered
showers for the later half of the week and into the weekend, but
with no storm systems expected, precip amounts will generally
be on the light side. Temperatures will cool to at or slightly
below normal by Friday. The scattered low elevation rain
showers, and high elevation snow showers, on Thursday will
change to mostly all snow showers Thursday night and continue
into the weekend. In general, little snow accumulation is
expected in the low lands, while some snow accumulations in the
mountains are likely.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 555 AM Monday...

Models still continue to trend the TAFs in the IFR direction
through te day, but the forecast is subject to many variables.
First is the wind direction, which may make the lowland
terminals drier in the lower levels, and may take longer to
saturate, even in rain. Wind speeds should increase as well,
which helps keep the air below 1000ft mixed better, even in
rain. But, in the end, expect observations my bounce between
MVFR and IFR through 00Z Tuesday, especially in different
intensity rain.

Flow turns to the northwest after 03Z Tuesday, and low ceilings
become a good bet once again, with IFR back in the fold. Highest
elevations will see snow, and perhaps RASN at BKW and EKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Observations likely to fluctuate in rain
and low ceilings. Amendments may be needed.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    L    M    L    L    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR weather is expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/26
NEAR TERM...JW/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26


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