233
FXUS61 KRNK 171037
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
637 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep conditions dry through Saturday. A cold
front on Sunday may bring some light rain, but high pressure
will return for early next week. Another cold front could arrive
by Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Frost Advisory for portions of southeast West Virginia and
the southern Shenandoah Valley for early this morning.

2) Seasonable and dry conditions are expected through tonight.

Patchy frost is expected for parts of the mountains, especially
in sheltered river valleys. Temperatures at the ridgetops will
be a little higher and may prevent some frost formation as
typically expected during the autumn season.

With near ideal radiational cooling conditions expected,
temperatures will fall into the mid/lows 30s to the lower 40s by
daybreak. Some sheltered river valleys such as Burkes Garden
and Lewisburg might even fall below the freezing mark. Winds
light and variable with high pressure overhead with only perhaps
some scattered cirrus clouds approaching from the west later
today. High temperatures should reach the lower 60s to the
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) A cold front brings the next chance of rain on Sunday.

2) Above normal temperatures this weekend fall back to normal on
Monday.

Saturday will be a mostly quiet day across the RNK CWA, as high
pressure continues to be the main feature. The high will have
shifted into the Western Atlantic, with a more southerly flow
advecting moisture and warmer temperatures into the region. At the
same time, a low pressure system will develop along a frontal
boundary in the central US and move northeast into the Great Lakes
Region on Sunday. It will strengthen and create a tight pressure
gradient with the aforementioned high in the Atlantic and another
high over the Southwestern US.

The cold front will approach our area midday Sunday, supported by a
deep upper-level trough. Normally, this would mean a great chance
for heavy rainfall. However, moisture will not be prevalent with
this system. Dewpoints will only be in the upper 50s, and mid-level
moisture will also be lacking. Due to this, rainfall will be
limited, particularly east of the Blue Ridge as the front weakens
over the mountains, with a tenth to maybe a quarter of an inch
possible. West of the Blue Ridge will have higher totals, with up to
a half of an inch possible in WV. These totals have trended up since
yesterday, with some models indicating even higher totals.
Nonetheless, most everywhere should see at least some rainfall
through Monday morning, when the front pushes off to the east.

Winds will be quite strong ahead of the front Sunday afternoon, with
a southwesterly wind of 10-20 mph and gusts of 25-30+ mph area-wide.
Even after the FROPA Sunday evening, winds shift to the west at
around 10-15 mph, with gusts lowering across the Piedmont, but
increasing for the ridgetops and areas west of the Blue Ridge. Gusts
of 25-35+ mph will continue through the night before lowering
through the day Monday. High pressure over the Deep South then
builds into the area for early next week, with quiet and dry weather
expected for the rest of the period.

Temperatures will be above normal ahead of the front on Saturday,
with highs in the 70s to near 80 area-wide. On Sunday, increased
cloud cover will reduce highs to the 60s for the mountains and low
to mid 70s for the Piedmont. Behind the front on Monday, highs fall
into the upper 50s for the mountains with 60s elsewhere. Overnight
lows remain mild Sunday morning, in the 50s, quickly falling back
into the 30s/40s for Monday morning after the FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Mostly quiet weather through the period.

2) Small rain chances for the western mountains Tuesday afternoon.

3) Temperatures fall behind the front to slightly below normal.

Quiet weather continues for Monday night, with high pressure to our
south. Another cold front is expected to swing down through the area
on Tuesday, again with support from an upper level trough, but this
time, it will mostly be a dry front as moisture will be even moreso
limited. A few showers will be possible on the western facing
mountains due to upslope flow, though PoPs are only around 20% in
WV. The front quickly rushes through, with yet another high pressure
building back into the region from the west. Winds again will be
elevated for a good portion of the week, with westerly winds around
10 mph, and gusts of 15-25 mph at times, particularly for the
mountains. The high will keep quiet and dry weather in place for
midweek, until a small disturbance could again bring minimal rain
chances west of the Blue Ridge late Thursday into Friday.

Near normal temperatures on Tuesday are expected, with highs in the
60s/70s. Behind the front for midweek, highs fall into the 50s for
the mountains and 60s for the Piedmont. Lows remain fairly
consistent, in the 30s/40s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions through period except for possible morning FG at
LWB. Mostly clear skies to start out then some cirrus possible
today with increasing coverage going into tonight with potential
alto deck. Winds mainly calm to light VRB for most sites today.
LWB and BLF could have light NW. Expecting calm winds tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

With high pressure in control, conditions should remain VFR
through Saturday outside of any morning river valley fog near
LWB. A cold front arrives by late Sunday to bring the next
chance of showers and possible MVFR ceilings. Winds may become a
little gusty from the northwest after the frontal passage for
Sunday night into Monday, but conditions should return to VFR as
high pressure returns. Another cold front may approach from the
west towards late Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

While confidence on this scenario is still not high, there is
increasing potential for an enhancement in fire danger on Sunday
afternoon, and then again Monday afternoon for portions of the
region. A cold front is expected to cross the region on Sunday.
The southeastern section of our forecast area will have the
lowest potential for receiving measurable rainfall. Winds are
expected to become gusty from the southwest (20 to 25 mph) in
advance of this front on Sunday afternoon, potentially prior to
any measurable rainfall but with minimum RHs in the lower 50s
percent. On Monday, after potentially not receiving a lot of
rain Sunday into Sunday night for this portion of the region,
winds will still be gusty (15 to 20 mph) from the northwest with
minimum RHs around 30 percent.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ020-024.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ043-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/PW
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...AB/BMG
FIRE WEATHER...DS