


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
233 FXUS61 KRNK 171037 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 637 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep conditions dry through Saturday. A cold front on Sunday may bring some light rain, but high pressure will return for early next week. Another cold front could arrive by Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Frost Advisory for portions of southeast West Virginia and the southern Shenandoah Valley for early this morning. 2) Seasonable and dry conditions are expected through tonight. Patchy frost is expected for parts of the mountains, especially in sheltered river valleys. Temperatures at the ridgetops will be a little higher and may prevent some frost formation as typically expected during the autumn season. With near ideal radiational cooling conditions expected, temperatures will fall into the mid/lows 30s to the lower 40s by daybreak. Some sheltered river valleys such as Burkes Garden and Lewisburg might even fall below the freezing mark. Winds light and variable with high pressure overhead with only perhaps some scattered cirrus clouds approaching from the west later today. High temperatures should reach the lower 60s to the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) A cold front brings the next chance of rain on Sunday. 2) Above normal temperatures this weekend fall back to normal on Monday. Saturday will be a mostly quiet day across the RNK CWA, as high pressure continues to be the main feature. The high will have shifted into the Western Atlantic, with a more southerly flow advecting moisture and warmer temperatures into the region. At the same time, a low pressure system will develop along a frontal boundary in the central US and move northeast into the Great Lakes Region on Sunday. It will strengthen and create a tight pressure gradient with the aforementioned high in the Atlantic and another high over the Southwestern US. The cold front will approach our area midday Sunday, supported by a deep upper-level trough. Normally, this would mean a great chance for heavy rainfall. However, moisture will not be prevalent with this system. Dewpoints will only be in the upper 50s, and mid-level moisture will also be lacking. Due to this, rainfall will be limited, particularly east of the Blue Ridge as the front weakens over the mountains, with a tenth to maybe a quarter of an inch possible. West of the Blue Ridge will have higher totals, with up to a half of an inch possible in WV. These totals have trended up since yesterday, with some models indicating even higher totals. Nonetheless, most everywhere should see at least some rainfall through Monday morning, when the front pushes off to the east. Winds will be quite strong ahead of the front Sunday afternoon, with a southwesterly wind of 10-20 mph and gusts of 25-30+ mph area-wide. Even after the FROPA Sunday evening, winds shift to the west at around 10-15 mph, with gusts lowering across the Piedmont, but increasing for the ridgetops and areas west of the Blue Ridge. Gusts of 25-35+ mph will continue through the night before lowering through the day Monday. High pressure over the Deep South then builds into the area for early next week, with quiet and dry weather expected for the rest of the period. Temperatures will be above normal ahead of the front on Saturday, with highs in the 70s to near 80 area-wide. On Sunday, increased cloud cover will reduce highs to the 60s for the mountains and low to mid 70s for the Piedmont. Behind the front on Monday, highs fall into the upper 50s for the mountains with 60s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain mild Sunday morning, in the 50s, quickly falling back into the 30s/40s for Monday morning after the FROPA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Mostly quiet weather through the period. 2) Small rain chances for the western mountains Tuesday afternoon. 3) Temperatures fall behind the front to slightly below normal. Quiet weather continues for Monday night, with high pressure to our south. Another cold front is expected to swing down through the area on Tuesday, again with support from an upper level trough, but this time, it will mostly be a dry front as moisture will be even moreso limited. A few showers will be possible on the western facing mountains due to upslope flow, though PoPs are only around 20% in WV. The front quickly rushes through, with yet another high pressure building back into the region from the west. Winds again will be elevated for a good portion of the week, with westerly winds around 10 mph, and gusts of 15-25 mph at times, particularly for the mountains. The high will keep quiet and dry weather in place for midweek, until a small disturbance could again bring minimal rain chances west of the Blue Ridge late Thursday into Friday. Near normal temperatures on Tuesday are expected, with highs in the 60s/70s. Behind the front for midweek, highs fall into the 50s for the mountains and 60s for the Piedmont. Lows remain fairly consistent, in the 30s/40s each morning. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 630 AM EDT Friday... VFR conditions through period except for possible morning FG at LWB. Mostly clear skies to start out then some cirrus possible today with increasing coverage going into tonight with potential alto deck. Winds mainly calm to light VRB for most sites today. LWB and BLF could have light NW. Expecting calm winds tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... With high pressure in control, conditions should remain VFR through Saturday outside of any morning river valley fog near LWB. A cold front arrives by late Sunday to bring the next chance of showers and possible MVFR ceilings. Winds may become a little gusty from the northwest after the frontal passage for Sunday night into Monday, but conditions should return to VFR as high pressure returns. Another cold front may approach from the west towards late Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday... While confidence on this scenario is still not high, there is increasing potential for an enhancement in fire danger on Sunday afternoon, and then again Monday afternoon for portions of the region. A cold front is expected to cross the region on Sunday. The southeastern section of our forecast area will have the lowest potential for receiving measurable rainfall. Winds are expected to become gusty from the southwest (20 to 25 mph) in advance of this front on Sunday afternoon, potentially prior to any measurable rainfall but with minimum RHs in the lower 50s percent. On Monday, after potentially not receiving a lot of rain Sunday into Sunday night for this portion of the region, winds will still be gusty (15 to 20 mph) from the northwest with minimum RHs around 30 percent. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ020-024. NC...None. WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ043-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG/PW NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...AB/BMG FIRE WEATHER...DS